THESE COMMANDMENTS NEED WORK.

Byline: KEVIN MODESTI Horse Racing

INGLEWOOD - When it comes to picking Kentucky Derby horses, I used to have it all figured out.

This column's modestly titled ``Ten Commandments for Kentucky Derby Handicapping'' did a great job of identifying the handful of legitimate (as opposed to popular) contenders each May. From 1992 to 1998, every Derby winner met at least eight - and most met nine or 10 - of the criteria set forth here. Six of the seven winners scored higher than the Derby favorite he went on to outrun.

It might be hubris that ended the streak: Days before the 1999 Derby, trainer Carl Nafzger mentioned in a press conference how he'd heard about a handicapping system that gave his colt Vicar a big chance. A Churchill Downs official introduced me to Nafzger as the inventor of that system. I found myself explaining the ins and outs of the Derby to a man who'd won the race with Unbridled.

Or it might be an evolution in thoroughbred training methods that rendered obsolete the traditional Derby handicapping fundamentals, which emphasized the ``seasoning'' 3-year-olds had received at 2.

Whatever the reason, from 1999 to 2002, no Derby winner has satisfied more than seven of the Ten Commandments.

Clearly, our big stone tablets needed updating. The result is a new-look list of criteria based on a review of what has worked over the past decade. Four of the criteria stay the same; two others are combinations of old rules; four are entirely fresh.

Here's a commandment-by-commandment look at favorite Empire Maker and the 16 other horses listed Thursday as definite or ``possible'' entrants in the 129th Kentucky Derby a week from Saturday in Louisville, Ky.

I. A point for what handicappers call ``dual qualifiers,'' horses who have Dosage pedigree ratings indicating the stamina for 1 1/4 miles and whose 2-year-old performances placed them within 10 pounds of the leader in the annual Experimental Free Handicap.

Empire Maker didn't measure up at 2. His barnmate, Peace Rules, is the lone obvious candidate who doesn't have the Dosage. Only Kafwain gets a point here because he's the only top Free Handicap horse in the race.

II. A point for winning at least one race as a 2-year-old.

Empire Maker won his debut in October. Blanking here are Atswhatimtalknbout (unraced at 2), Brancusi and Ten Most Wanted.

III. A point for having three or four - no more, no fewer - pre-Derby races this year.

Empire Maker had three. No good for Atswhatimtalknbout (five), Indian Express (two), Peace Rules (two), Supah Blitz (five) and Outta Here (one).

IV. A point for finishing third or better in the horse's last pre-Derby race.

Empire Maker won the Wood Memorial. More bad news for Atswhatimtalknbout (fourth, Santa Anita Derby), Outta Here (fourth, in Dubai) and Ten Cents a Shine (eighth, Blue Grass).

V. A point for winning one of the major preps: Santa Anita, Florida, Louisiana, Arkansas or Illinois derby; Blue Grass, Wood Memorial, Lane's End (formerly Spiral) or Lexington.

OK for Buddy Gil, Empire Maker, Peace Rules, Sir Cherokee, Ten Most Wanted and Scrimshaw.

VI. A point for earning a Beyer speed figure of 105 or higher in a stakes of 1 1/16 or longer.

Empire Maker's Wood rated a 111. Also: Funny Cide (110), Ten Most Wanted (110), Brancusi (106), Sir Cherokee (106) and Peace Rules (105).

VII. A point for passing five or more horses between the early going and the finish in a stakes.

Empire Maker went from seventh to second in the Sham. Also: Atswhatimtalknbout (he's on the board!), Buddy Gil, Eye of the Tiger, Kafwain, Outta Here, Sir Cherokee and Ten Most Wanted.

VIII. A point for having a jockey with Derby-winning experience.

Empire Maker's Jerry Bailey has won the Derby twice. Others: Buddy Gil (Gary Stevens), Kafwain (Pat Valenzuela), Outta Here (Kent Desormeaux) and Ten Most Wanted (Pat Day). Some riding assignments aren't yet set.

IX. Ditto for trainers.

Bobby Frankel (Empire Maker, Peace Rules) hasn't won a Triple Crown race - though he's won everything else. Bob Baffert's Kafwain and Indian Express get points, as does D. Wayne Lukas' Scrimshaw and Ten Cents a Shine.

X. A point for not being the favorite in a race which, after all, has produced upsets in 22 of the past 23 runnings.

Nice going by everybody but Empire Maker.

Let's total it up.

The top points-getter is Kafwain (eight out of 10). Empire Maker rates a true contender's role with seven of 10, the same score as Buddy Gil, Sir Cherokee and Ten Most Wanted. Scrimshaw is next with six of 10.

The commandments suggest Peace Rules (five) and Atswhatimtalknbout (two) are overrated.

Thou shalt decide for yourself whether to bet this way.

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OUT OF THE GATE

- Kevin Modesti