THEME PARKS RIDING UPS . . . AND DOWNS; ATTENDANCE DIPS IN THE WAKE OF NEW ATTRACTIONS BRING DOSE OF WORRY TO REALMS OF FANTASY.

Byline: Cory Lancaster and Lesley Clark The Orlando Sentinal

Theme parks spend millions of dollars on new rides and attractions to keep visitors coming back. But are the parks beginning to lose their allure?

That was a question raised when Amusement Business reported that, despite a robust U.S. economy, North America's 50 most popular parks suffered a combined 1 percent drop in attendance in 1998, the first drop since 1991.

The answer may not become apparent until next year.

The trade publication blamed the dip on a lackluster performance by the big guys, including Walt Disney Co., Anheuser-Busch and Premier Parks, which owns Six Flags.

Every Disney park (except the Animal Kingdom, which opened this year) recorded a drop in attendance. Two of Anheuser-Busch's parks saw declines. Four other Busch parks - including SeaWorld Orlando and Busch Gardens Tampa Bay - had flat attendance, as did Universal Studios Florida, the magazine reported.

Given the strong U.S. economy and the addition of new attractions at many parks, industry experts had expected 1998 to be a big year. Because so many of them reported dips in attendance, it raises the question of whether the popularity of theme parks is on the wane.

If visitors lose interest in the companies' offerings, theme park-rich Central Florida would stand to lose the most.

Orlando's six major theme parks rank among the top 10 of the most-visited parks in North America. Together, they welcomed 55.5 million visitors this year - a third of the 165 million visitors who attended all 50 parks in 1998.

``Obviously, it's a big chunk of the national market,'' said Abe Pizam, professor of tourism management at the University of Central Florida. ``When these guys go down, all the parks go down.''

Industry observers caution that it's too early to tell if 1998's slump is the start of a trend or a fluke. They said there were far too many factors that kept vacationers away in 1998 - from summer wildfires that made national headlines and consumed 500,000 acres of land in Florida to a faltering Asian economy and a weak Canadian dollar.

``I don't know if I'd agree that people are tired of theme parks,'' said Linda Bannister, a financial analyst with Edward Jones securities firm who tracks Disney theme parks.

In terms of total visitation, Disney World enjoyed a record year, attracting 2.5 million more people to its parks. Disney's three older parks saw decreases because many people chose to see the new Animal Kingdom instead.

Bannister said she expects Orlando's theme parks to post slight attendance gains in 1999. Disney World will benefit from having the Animal Kingdom open for a full year - this year's figures were from April onward.

The domestic economy should remain strong, and new offerings in Central Florida, such as Universal's Islands of Adventure, opening in the summer, should draw new visitors, she said.

Analysts looking at the Orlando market also point to the fact that 1996 and 1997 were tough acts to follow. The Magic Kingdom, which celebrated its 25th anniversary in 1997, posted a 23 percent jump in attendance, according to estimates.

Parks on the West Coast, such as California's Disneyland, suffered from a faltering Asian economy, which meant fewer Asian tourists.

Premier's Six Flags parks got off to a dreadful start, but recovered after the first half of the year, said Barry Rothberg, an analyst for New York-based ING Barings.

Still, Premier's numbers were the worst in the industry.

Several of the parks reported double-digit declines in attendance for the first six months, Rothberg said.

Analysts attributed Premier's problems to a marketing campaign launched by the parks' former owners that targeted a ``high-octane, Generation X'' market at the expense of the parks' traditional family audience.

Premier changed the marketing campaign, and it appeared to work, he said. ``The numbers in the back half of the year were better,'' he said. ``Based on that, we're confident that next year's numbers will be up.''

DECLINING ATTENDANCE

Sixteen of the top 50 North American theme parks and amusement parks had a decline in attendance in 1998, according to estimates. Here are those with the biggest percentage losses:

Park Attendance in 1998 % change from 1997

Six Flags St. Louis,

Eureka, Mo. 1,556,000 -24%

Six Flags over

Georgia, Atlanta 2,321,000 -17%

Epcot, Orlando, Fla. 10,596,750 -10%

Disney-MGM Studios,

Orlando, Fla. 9,473,750 -10%

Six Flags Magic

Mountain, Valencia 3,070,000 -9%

Six Flags over Texas,

Arlington, Texas 2,819,000 -9%

Paramount's Great America,

Santa Clara, Calif. 2,050,000 -9%

Six Flags AstroWorld, Houston 1,900,000 -9%

The Magic Kingdom,

Orlando, Fla. 15,640,000 -8%

Six Flags Great

Adventure, Jackson, N.J. 3,421,000 -8%

Note: Parks with the same percentage decline are ranked based on attendance.

SOURCE: Amusement Business

CAPTION(S):

Photo, Box

PHOTO (Color) no caption (Amusement park ride)

BOX: DECLINING ATTENDANCE (see text)

Knight Ridder Tribune