THE WRITING ON (AND OFF) THE WALL PRO CHANCES FOR LARGE VALLEY CITY SMALL.

Byline: TOM HOFFARTH

Tuesday, if we vote for it, it will come. A domain all to ourselves, 1.35 million strong. The sixth-biggest pinpoint on Rand McNally's map of the U.S., spittin' down on Phoenix and creepin' up on Philly.

If enough registered decision-makers crash the polls next week and approve Measure F, the San Fernando Valley - or whatever we're gonna call it - will finally have divorced itself from Los Angeles and become, once and for all, it's own private entity.

Then, we got some real work to do. Decisions on police and fire. Water and power. Taxes. Trash pickup. Oh, and did anyone remember to order a professional sports team?

Not to give anyone an immediate inferiority complex, but don't look now: we stand to be the country's largest city without its own pro franchise.

Fact is, we'd be the only one in the top 16 in population. But even Austin, Texas, at No. 17, has a major college with teams that compete annually for national championships.

We'd have ... ahem ... Cal State Northridge.

We have no stadium. No ballpark. No arena. No horse racing track. No auto racing track. Not even a stop on the pro bowlers tour, though Tarzana is the home of an LPGA tournament.

Go beyond No. 50 on the list of most inhabited U.S. cities, and you'll find many have come through and landed a big-time pro sports team that did wonders in establishing a big-time image and big-time revenue for the general population.

Need we even have to mention cruddy little Anaheim that currently embraces not one, but two major pro teams - we understand that one of 'em just won a pretty sizable championship - and it wouldn't mind adding a third if the Clippers realized they'd be better off down the freeway from Lakerville.

Of course, Anaheim had a theme park to put itself on the map before the Angels came over from Dodger Stadium and the Rams shifted from the Coliseum (then moved away again).

But you get the drift here - if we're gonna think first-class major-league city, maybe the first order of business after picking a chummy mayor, a corrupt city council and a catchy motto is targeting which pro franchise we need to schmooze over to this side of the hill.

And, no, we can't start by trying to pry the AFL2 team out of Bakersfield. Fellow citizens, we gotta think super-size before we get to the drive-thru window.

Anyone come up with any ideas yet?

Put 'em on hold.

David Carter, a prominent sports marketing expert who heads Redondo Beach-based Sports Business Group and teaches sports marketing at USC, is one strong voice who doubts any organized effort to use the Valley's pending cityhood as a launching pad for a new team, or even attracting a used one, will work. < First, a sports team can't possibly be a priority for a city with so many other life-altering decisions to make - even if it's just how to fill all the existing potholes.

Then, from a business standpoint, it'll be a tough sell. Nationally, none will see a difference between the Valley and L.A. for years to come, he said. And it's not as if the Valley will be establishing a new TV market.

Plus, those Valley fans who've already attached themselves to established L.A. winners will be reluctant to venture out.

``In the grand scheme of things, a sports team will go to a market that's either unserviced or underserviced,'' Carter said. ``With the Valley, you add a third part to that - a strong fan base in all sports that sees no boundaries.

``People already have connections to existing teams. Especially in L.A., where there's a great curiosity that doesn't sustain, why would anyone go out of their way to see a team in (the) Valley other than for the novelty? I don't see it.''

Even if we could get some Anschutz-type to whip up a new Office Depot Arena in Van Nuys and jingle some change to attract Donald Sterling's attention, an owner has to see a reason to reinvest, if only for ego purposes.

``Not to demean the Valley, but there are business developments in certain locations that are better,'' Carter said. ``The Valley will stay largely indistinguishable. By and large, there's nothing less sexy than being in the Valley than anywhere else in L.A.

``I'm not sure there's a lot of `there' there to get a team, even in theoretical terms.''

But what about ...

``I think the Valley has painted its way into a corner in respect to the value of a sports franchise,'' Carter added. ``Politically, it's not not a good time to be thinking of sports where there's more to do with infrastructure orientation. The timing is just ugly.''

Oh, we see.

But there is a way around this thinking, Carter added. The Valley could actually take a stance against pro sports as it did when it was part of L.A. Meaning, let a Green Bay, Wis., have its team for self worth. We're too big to care.

``What could be more `big-league' than being able to tell someone with a sports team that you don't need 'em, that you're better off without 'em,'' Carter said. ``L.A. and the Valley are one of the few communities who can take that attitude. We have enough entertainment, and we won't mortgage the future for a sports owner.''

So maybe size does matter. Guess we'll get back to you on that pro team just as soon as we figure out who's picking up our garbage and how we can rebuild the CSUN football program.

WHERE THE VALLEY WOULD RANK

What the list of the top 10 most-populated U.S. cities will look like if the San Fernando

Valley succession is approved by voters Tuesday, and the number of notable pro sports teams that play in each city:

Rank City Pop.(approx.) Pro teams

1. New York 8 million 2 NFL, 2 MLB, 1 NBA, 2 NHL, 1 MLS, 1 WNBA 

2. Chicago 2.89 mil. 1 NFL, 2 MLB, 1 NBA, 1 NHL, 1 MLS

3. Los Angeles 2.34 mil. 1 MLB, 2 NBA, 1 NHL, 1 MLS, 1 WNBA

4. Houston 1.95 mil. 1 NFL, 1 MLB, 1 NBA, 1 WNBA

5. Philadelphia 1.5 mil. 1 NFL, 1 MLB, 1 NBA, 1 NHL

6. San Fernando Valley 1.35 mil. None

7. Phoenix 1.32 mil. 1 NFL, 1 MLB, 1 NBA, 1 NHL, 1 WNBA

8. San Diego 1.2 mil. 1 NFL, 1 MLB

9. Dallas 1.18 mil. 1 NFL, 1 NBA, 1 NHL, 1 MLS

10. San Antonio 1.14 mil. 1 NBA

OTHER CITIES OF NOTE

12. San Jose 895,000 1 NHL, 1 MLS

14. San Francisco 777,000 1 NFL, 1 MLB, 1 NBA

17. Austin, Texas 657,000 None

43. Oakland 400,000 1 NFL, 1 MLB

- Source: InfoPlease.com based on 2000 census

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WHERE THE VALLEY WOULD RANK (see text)