THE UAE - A Flexible Geo-Political Perspective.

The UAE was quick to realise that the ramifications of globalisation were not dependent on key regional issues like the Middle East peace process, the isolation of Iraq, etc. It recognised that, whether or not the peace process succeeded and no matter what happened to Iraq, globalisation would continue to have an impact on the world. Its well-advised leadership also knows that what would be affected if there were no peace in the region was the way in which the countries of the Middle East would be able to respond to the challenges of globalisation.

(Increasingly, this reality is becoming clearer throughout the Middle East. Without peace in the region, several Arab countries are finding it a challenge to move forward rapidly on their economic reform objectives - with the domestic opposition (often Islamist) linking short- to medium-term hardships associated with liberalisation measures to regime incompetence, "US-Zionist" conspiracy, etc. But the time for radical change is running out, with the whole region facing a population explosion. This reality has been recently highlighted by a recent Arab Human Development Report study jointly done by the UN Development Programme and the Arab Fund for Economic & Social Development - see News Service No. 3 for details).

Thus, the UAE has always had a most pragmatic diplomacy. The focus on the federation's interests has never been lost, despite the appeal of pan-Arab or Islamist causes which may have boosted the legitimacy of the rulers.

It is important to note in this context, according to many observers, the rulers of the UAE emirates do not really have legitimacy problems unlike many other Arab states because of the relative wealth of the country's citizens and the benevolent style of the leadership. Of course, they note, this can change if the economic situation takes a sudden turn for the worse - or if political instability surfaces through unpredictable events.

Rather, the observers say, the appeal of pan-Arab causes from the UAE's perspective is in terms of boosting its regional image and prestige. Consequently, the UAE does occasionally take public positions that may appear to challenge the American definition of what is good or right for the Middle East. The federal government has often been critical of US policy on the Arab-Israeli conflict, particularly the Israeli-Palestinian angle, and also of Washington's policy against Iraq.

Be that as it may, however, the UAE government has never allowed its critical perceptions get in the way of its pragmatic relationship with the US. The leadership has never allowed its sentiments to jeopardise a relationship with the US that is based on hard geo-political interests - namely security.

This was evident since the Sept. 11, 2001, events in the US when the Bush administration began targeting the Taliban regime as one of the guilty parties. The UAE, together with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, was one of three states to recognise the regime but it did not hesitate to break of relations with the movement. Since then the federation has been offering the US full co-operation in the war against terror, in a very low profile way.

A similar hard-headed pragmatism can be seen in the way the UAE has dealt with its problems with Iran. After Iran took over the disputed Abu Musa and Tunb Islands in the early 1990s, the UAE chose not to escalate the issue into a conflict - deciding that the greater economic interests of the country would be safeguarded while diplomacy would be used to engage Iran. While this diplomacy has been far from successful in the subsequent years, Tehran and Abu Dhabi continue to maintain relatively cordial political ties and a robust economic relationship with the UAE (particularly Dubai) benefiting enormously as a result of the re-export trade with Iran.

In rhetorical terms, the UAE has been one of the strongest opponents of any new attack against Iraq, aimed at removing the regime of Saddam. Relations between the two countries had improved considerably in recent years, with Abu Dhabi having sent huge amounts of aid to the country and having spoken out in favour of Baghdad at multilateral meetings. UAE diplomacy against an attack has been intense but very low profile and behind the scenes. Yet, there is no illusion among the regional players that - if the US does launch a military assault on Iraq - the opposition of the UAE will be muted.