THE TOUGHEST STRETCH.

Byline: Kevin Modesti

The best horse never wins the Kentucky Derby. OK, that's an exaggeration.

The best horse wins the Kentucky Derby a little more often than my pick wins the Kentucky Derby. Since the 1970s, the decade of Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid, betting favorites have lost 24 of 26 editions of the Derby. And of the past 16 horses who were voted 3-year-old champions, 10 lost the Derby or failed to even compete in the race - including four of the past five 3-year-olds to be voted Horse of the Year. Depending on your attitude, this makes the Derby either a lot more fun or an annual headache. Blame the sheer unpredictability of young thoroughbreds? No, there are logical reasons why deserving horses often lose. For the benefit of the trainers of Brother Derek, Barbaro and Lawyer Ron - and anybody else who might need an excuse after Saturday's Kentucky Derby - here are the 10 most frequent reasons for Derby upsets and the most notable recent example of each.

jockey errors

Afleet Alex ended up winning the 2005 Preakness, Belmont Stakes and 3-year-olds championship. In the Derby, though, he ran a close third to long-shot winner Giacomo, losing his punch late after young jockey Jeremy Rose rushed him into contention too early on the far turn of the quick-paced race.

nagging injuries

California's A.P. Indy would go on to prove himself the best 3-year-old of 1992, winning the Belmont Stakes and the Breeders' Cup Classic with jockey Eddie Delahoussaye on his way to Horse of the Year. But the day before the Derby, A.P. Indy came up lame with an abscess in his right forefoot, and although vets worked late into Friday night, trainer Neil Drysdale said he had no choice but to scratch the colt. After favored Arazi ran poorly and long shot Lil E. Tee won in a slow time, it was generally agreed that A.P. Indy would have won.

muddy tracks

One reason such starts as Brocco, Holy Bull and Tabasco Cat failed to catch Go for Gin in the 1994 Derby was the track surface, officially labeled ``sloppy'' after a rainstorm. ``Sloppy'' and ``muddy'' tracks have usually favored front-runners in the Derby, and 9-1 shot Go for Gin had the lead from the first turn.

fast pace

In 2001, a long shot named Songandaprayer led the fastest first three- quarters of a mile in Derby history (1:09.25), and favorite Point Given was among the horses racing too close for comfort. Point Given and Gary Stevens wound up fifth as come-from-behinder Monarchos won (Songandaprayer came in 13th). It was the only loss for the Horse of the Year.

slow pace

The year after Point Given was hurt by a fast pace, another Bob Baffert- trained horse named War Emblem won by setting some of the slowest fractions in Derby history. As some would-be early challengers faltered, and other jockeys waited for the 20-1 shot to falter, War Emblem, Proud Citizen and Perfect Drift ran 1-2-3 virtually all the way around the track.

bad starts

When the last horse went into the starting gate before the 1994 Derby, the 130,594 fans let out an anticipatory roar, and California's Brocco took a startled glance at the grandstand. At that moment, Churchill Downs starter Tom Waggoner sprung the latches. The distracted Brocco found himself three lengths behind before his first stride. Though Brocco surged into contention on the backstretch, he could finish no better than fourth behind Go for Gin. ``What a day to get left (at the gate),'' jockey Gary Stevens said.

rough trips

We're not talking about delayed flights to Louisville. We're talking about the times when the Kentucky Derby turns into Demolition Derby. In 1999, when the 19-horse field was jammed together in the first turn, favorite General Challenge was squeezed between horses in mid-pack and was lucky not to fall. Stevens described feeling as if other the horses on either side ``picked me up and carried me about four strides.'' General Challenge finished 11th behind Charismatic but went on to win the Pacific Classic and Santa Anita Handicap.

wrong distance

The 1/4 miles is longer than almost any Derby horse has raced before and is the undoing of many. No horse lost as much in that extra yardage as Cavonnier in 1996. The California-bred took the lead in the stretch and was in front until the final stride, when Grindstone caught him to win by a nose, the narrowest margin in the past 46 years. Trainer Bob Baffert would joke that for a few seconds, until he realized the photo finish would go the other way, he knew what it was like to win the Derby. Baffert would go on to win three in the next six years.

trainer errors

Arazi began his 3-year-old season in 1992 as the most exciting young thoroughbred since the '70s. Before the Derby had even been run, Preakness promoters built an extra press box to accommodate the anticipated crush. Alas, Arazi could do no better than eighth behind Lil E. Tee in the Derby and didn't run at Pimlico. Arazi was a brilliant horse, but working for a partnership of American and Arab owners, trainer Francois Boutin took the colt to France to recover from winter knee surgery, gave him only one warm-up race, and left him unprepared for the Derby.

off days

Sometimes, you just wake up on the wrong side of the stall. Holy Bull was one of the finest thoroughbreds of the 1990s but a flop in the 1994 Derby. Slow out of the gate, bothered early in the race, he gave little effort and finished 12th behind Go for Gin. He would win his next five races and Horse of the Year honors. Trainer Jimmy Croll accepted none of the usual explanations, insisting for years that Holy Bull must have been drugged, a charge for which there appears to be no evidence.

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