THE NUMBERS GAME ADDING CENSUS 'UNDERCOUNT' DILUTES VALLEY'S VOTING POWER.

Byline: Erik N. Nelson Staff Writer

The city redistricting panel has come under pressure to estimate the number of people who went uncounted in the 2000 Census and include them when drawing new City Council boundaries - an action that would diminish San Fernando Valley representation.

The way council lines are drawn has long been a source of contention to Valley activists who argue that the area's 1.4 million people are entitled to five and possibly six seats but currently have only four of the 15 wholly within the Valley.

The City Council Redistricting Commission, which must propose the new lines to the council by March 1, expects to hear testimony this week on the use of ``undercount'' estimates. Critics of the census complain that African-Americans, Latinos and homeless people among others are missed, but they have failed to persuade federal officials to make statistical adjustments to include them.

Officials of many large cities, including Los Angeles Mayor James Hahn, say they are shortchanged of federal funds because of the undercount and have sued the Census Bureau to revise its count.

Use of the undercount in Los Angeles - estimates of which are being withheld by the Census Bureau - would favor areas with a high population of minorities, tenants and low-income residents at the expense of Valley and Westside representation, said experts.

``It appears that if the commission uses unofficial numbers, it will have the effect of diluting or reducing the representation of the Valley on the City Council, since most of the uncounted people appear to reside outside of the Valley,'' said commission member Richard Close, who is one of the top advocates for creating a new city in the Valley.

If the undercount estimates made by city officials were used, Valley districts would have more people actually counted in the census than most other districts in the city, effectively diluting Valley votes. In terms of actual voting patterns, districts even partially in the Valley have substantially higher election turnouts than most of the rest of the city.

Advocates of using the undercount argue that using official census figures would have the effect of disenfranchising voters in poorly counted areas, so they want city officials to estimate the uncounted population and base the districts on a ``corrected'' total.

``We don't have enough people to make up a council district, based on the undercount,'' said commission member Juanita Tate, who was appointed by Councilwoman Jan Perry, whose district includes much of South Central and downtown.

With predominately Latino and African-American populations in her current district, city officials believe that many of its residents failed to return census questionnaires and were missed by census takers.

The biggest obstacle facing those who favor adjusting for the undercount is that the Census Bureau's own estimates of its undercount aren't available.

``There is no one way of doing the tabulation for correction because we don't have the official data,'' Assistant City Attorney Jessica Heinz told the commission Monday. The city is suing to release those figures.

That means the commission would have to estimate the likely undercounts for each census tract by using available data on the percentage of questionnaires returned in individual tracts and city estimates of racial makeup and the prevalence of renters.

For instance, city officials know that the census estimate of statewide undercount was 0.43 percent for whites, 2.57 percent for Latinos and 2.96 percent for African-Americans. Using those numbers, one could come up with estimates showing a minimal undercount in Valley neighborhoods populated mainly by white homeowners and a large undercount in areas dominated by African-American renters.

``Are we going to get ourselves into a debate among seven different ways of correcting the data?'' Close asked Heinz.

``I don't know,'' she replied.

Any redistricting plan is sure to face a court challenge, Heinz warned.

``There are folks on either side of this issue who are eager to sue us,'' she said, advising the commission to stick to a ``safe zone'' that keeps populations in different districts no more than 10 percent apart.

But one expert who will testify at this week's hearing, University of California, Los Angeles, urban planning professor Leo Estrada, said court precedent set the 10 percent threshold for preventing the splintering of municipalities.

``The courts have not said you can do 10 percent for the undercount, but that if you have a good reason, you can do it (deviate from equal districts by 10 percent),'' he said. ``What we're going to argue is that the undercount is a good reason.''

If the commission decides to deviate by 10 percent, that could mean that one district, such as Perry's, could have 5 percent fewer than the 246,000 people that 15 districts with equal census counts would have. At the same time, West Valley Councilman Hal Bernson's district might get 5 percent more population. That could create gaps of nearly 30,000 people.

Commissioners have discussed the possibility of creating five Valley council districts, with another part-Valley district. Some commission members said privately that they fear that only a small fraction of that sixth district would be populated by Valley voters.

The commission will hear testimony on redistricting issues from 7 p.m. to 9 on Wednesday at Valley College's Monarch Hall, and plans to schedule another hearing in the Valley for next month.

The hearing on the undercount also is planned for Thursday at City Hall, but no time has been set.