THE NO-SHOW PRIMARY\California too late to count - again.

Byline: William Bradley

THE plan was that, two days from now, after a hotly contested campaign focusing on the needs and desires of the Golden State, Californians would use their brand-new March primary to decide who the next Republican presidential nominee would be.

Unfortunately, with voting experts predicting near record turnouts for a statewide primary election - record low turnouts, that is - the reality is a little different.

Actually, it's a lot different. Most other states moved up their primaries as well. So once again a hotly contested presidential nomination fight has been decided in New York, leaving us to bring up the rear.

The pilot light of populist conservative commentator Pat Buchanan's campaign has gone out, leaving Bob Dole as the Republicans' clear presidential pick. And Democrats frightened by the debacle of 1994 had already rallied around President Clinton, who has visited California more frequently than Ronald Reagan did in his first term.

As a result, we've witnessed one of the most desultory primary election campaigns in memory.

It's doubly unfortunate, because there are some critical issues on the statewide ballot. Part of the initiative menu reflects California's crazy quilt of concerns: Still more special circumstances leading to the death penalty for murder; a ballot battle pitting hunters against environmentalists over the fate of the mountain lion. Worthy questions, no doubt, but not as momentous as some others.

For one, the insurance initiative wars that raged in 1988 have begun again, with industry members pushing three measures.

The first, Proposition 200, would establish no-fault auto insurance. The second, Proposition 201, would create a chilling effect for potential plaintiffs by requiring the losing party in shareholder action and class action suits to pay the winning party's attorneys fees.

The final companion measure, Proposition 202, would limit attorneys contingency fees in tort cases. According to a well-placed pollster, the first two measures seem headed for defeat. The third, limiting attorneys fees, has a chance of passage, given public antipathy toward lawyers.

Perhaps more significant than the insurance wars, which seem headed again in a typically spendthrift manner for a kind of stalemate, is a measure reflecting Californians' growing appetite for a more independent brand of politics.

Proposition 198 would open up party primary elections to all registered voters, which are currently closed to party members only. For example, as a registered independent, I am unable to vote to choose any of the finalists in the general election.

Not surprisingly, leaders of both the Democrats and the Republicans, fearing that it will pass, are appalled by Proposition 198, and note the potential for mischief by opposing party members skewing results in their own party primary elections. Perhaps they shouldn't have opposed earlier proposals which would only have allowed independents to channel surf the primaries.

There also is the ongoing question of floating bonds to finance California's public investments. Proposition 192 is a proposed $2 billion - actually $3.4 billion counting the interest - bond measure for the seismic retrofitting of bridges and highway overpasses.

Thirty-five percent of the money would go to the San Francisco Bay Area, making it unnecessary for the region's transit authorities to direct that amount from their bridge toll revenues to the task.

It's not for nothing that Bay Area politicians long have dominated the Legislature, which placed this on the ballot.

Proposition 203 is another education bond measure, this one for $3 billion to build and upgrade facilities in the public schools, community colleges and state universities.

Education in California suffers from two essential problems: a lack of resources to deal with exploding demand, and a lack of reform to use resources effectively and creatively.

Notwithstanding the ongoing need for reform, it's clear that California's spending on education lags well behind that of other states. And as demonstrated by "Net Day '96," the effort earlier this month to link schools to the information resources available on the Internet, thousands of our schools are in simply appalling shape.

We're voting this Tuesday, rather than the first Tuesday in June, because of presidential politics. So let's close with that. With one-fifth of the electoral votes needed to win the White House, California is essential to Bill Clinton's re-election hopes.

He and his operatives have worked long and hard to keep California in his column, as it was in 1992.

Although it has not yet been reported, the president's forces will soon announce the appointment of Los Angeles political consultant Bill Carrick - chief strategist for Sen. Dianne Feinstein and 1988 presidential campaign manager for House Democratic Leader Dick Gephardt - as the re-election campaign's chief California strategist.

Former Orange County Assemblyman Tom Umberg, the 1994 Democratic nominee for state attorney general, will be the day-to-day state campaign manager.

As it happens, the president's new chief California strategist is also running the trial lawyers' campaign against the three insurance industry initiatives on Tuesday's ballot. The featured performer in the massive Carrick-directed television ad campaign against the initiatives is veteran consumer advocate and left-liberal activist Ralph Nader.

Mr. Nader may turn out to be the real star of this statewide primary. For not only will he likely play a major role in defeating his longtime bete noir, the insurance industry, he will also win the environmentalist Green Party's nod for president on the November California ballot.

Nader's reputation had been fading in California, but his prominent role in this round of TV advertising reverses that. And if the presidental race in California does turn out to be close, Nader won't hurt Dole - he'll hurt Clinton. A neat demonstration of the old Will Rogers quip: "I belong to no organized political party; I am a Democrat."

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Photo (color) Decision day Voters will go to the polls Tuesday in California's new March primary.