THE L.A. MAYOR'S RACE: BLACK VOTERS LIKELY TO LISTEN TO PARKS.

Byline: EARL O. HUTCHINSON Local View

THE volte face Rep. Maxine Waters did in endorsing Los Angeles City Councilman Antonio Villaraigosa for mayor was no surprise. Though Waters backed Mayor James Hahn in 2001, she and other black leaders screamed for Hahn's head when he dumped Police Chief Bernard Parks. Waters and other black leaders vowed at the time that they would make Hahn pay, and pay dearly, when he was up for re-election.

She kept her word, but whether her endorsement of Villaraigosa means much to black voters is iffy at best.

The endorsement of some politicians by other politicians is only as good as the time, energy, resources and work they're willing in to put in to help their choice get over the top. If they aren't willing to do much for them beyond offering their name, then their endorsement amounts to nothing more than a showy, headline-grabbing exercise.

Waters is probably L.A.'s best known, most popular and most influential black politician. And she can certainly turn out the troops if she so chooses. Yet there is no evidence that her endorsement in a undramatic, lackluster city election that has failed to ignite any real passion among L.A. voters - and in which neither of the contenders is black - will stir blacks to march to the polls to vote for Villaraigosa.

Parks did everything he could to fire up black voters and turn his candidacy into a crusade for black empowerment at City Hall. He largely succeeded. It was the black vote that propelled him into his fourth-place finish behind the two front-runners and Robert Hertzberg. It was even more remarkable considering that blacks make up barely 15 percent of L.A. voters, and the overall turnout in the primary was dismal.

A Waters endorsement could also trigger a backlash among many San Fernando Valley voters. Many are conservative and Republican, and they do vote. Waters' outspoken advocacy of black and liberal causes raises huge red flags among them. Hahn ran virtually even with Villaraigosa in the primary in getting Valley votes. Waters' endorsement won't do anything to help Villaraigosa increase his margin over Hahn with them in May.

The coalition Villaraigosa is desperately trying to craft is a politically expedient model for ethnic cooperation in a city that has been fractured along racial fault lines. But blacks shunned him when he faced off with Hahn in 2001. He got less than one-fifth of their vote. He did even worse in last month's primary. Despite the pillorying Hahn got from black leaders, he still topped Villaraigosa and bagged nearly one-fourth of their votes.

Many blacks still see Hahn as a safe and traditional Democrat who will best protect their interests. They view Villaraigosa as an inexperienced political maverick, an interloper who can't or won't deliver the goods for blacks. Lurking underneath everything is their fear of Latino domination of city politics. Villaraigosa has done everything he could to dispel that fear, but it's still there, and it could hurt him.

That will help Hahn, but it won't solve Hahn's biggest problem. And that's Parks.

It was tempting a few years ago to dismiss anger over Hahn's decision to get rid of Parks as yet another shuffling of the racial deck by black leaders. But that misses too much. Blacks didn't storm the racial barricades for an embattled black official merely to save the political hide of one of their own.

Their frenzy over Parks, then and now, reflected two tormenting problems. One is the deep distrust and hostility that many blacks still feel toward the Los Angeles Police Department. The other is the atrophying political muscle of the black community in city government. Parks was the immediate payback African-Americans expected from Hahn for delivering the crucial black vote that did much to put him in the mayor's seat. If they were unable to wring that concession out of the man who supposedly owes so much to them and who has identified more strongly with the black community than any other local white politician, then they're in even deeper political trouble than they realize.

The fast-changing ethnic shifts in South-Central Los Angeles virtually guarantee that. In the next few years, the number of Latino residents will grow even faster in South-Central Los Angeles than in the rest of the city. In addition, more Latino immigrants will become citizens, their children will become eligible to vote, and a relentless massive voter-registration drive by Latino political groups will translate their numerical majority into a voting majority in South-Central L.A.

The real possibility is that blacks could lose one, possibly two, and in a worst-case scenario, the three seats they currently hold on the City Council in that area. It's that possibility that also sends tremors pulsating up the political spines of black politicians and leaders in Los Angeles and throughout the state.

Waters' endorsement at best gives collateral help to Villaraigosa. After all, it's still better for him than if she endorsed his opponent. But it won't tip the scales against Hahn among blacks. Only Parks can do that. And so far, he hasn't said whom he's going to back. Whether he eventually does or doesn't go with Villaraigosa, Parks still is Hahn's problem.