THE KEY TO WINNING HORSE OF THE YEAR.

Byline: ART WILSON 

HORSE RACING 

Nashoba's Key, the brilliant 4-year-old filly scheduled to run in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Filly&Mare Turf on Oct. 27 at Monmouth Park, has done everything asked of her this year.

She's won all seven of her lifetime races, beginning with her maiden victory in January at Santa Anita. She's won on the grass, over Hollywood Park's Cushion Track and on the new Polytrack surface at Del Mar.

In her most recent victory, the $400,000 Grade I Yellow Ribbon Stakes at Santa Anita's Oak Tree meet, she tracked the classy Bobby Frankel-trained Citronnade through pedestrian early splits and still ran down the 4-5 favorite by three-quarters of a length.

The California-bred daughter of Silver Hawk has been a model of consistency, more so than any horse that will run in this year's Breeders' Cup. Yes, more consistent than Lawyer Ron, Street Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun and Any Given Saturday. She has won more races this year than European sensation Dylan Thomas, who has enjoyed a spectacular 2007 in his own right.

But it's a safe bet the winner of this year's Breeders' Cup Classic will be named Horse of the Year in January at the Eclipse Awards dinner, despite the fact that if Nashoba's Key wins her next start she will have been a picture of perfection.

There have been only three females named Horse of the Year since the current Eclipse Award format was adopted in 1971 -- All Along in 1983, Lady's Secret in 1986 and Azeri in 2002. None were unbeaten the year they won the prestigious prize, although Lady's Secret's resume was so impressive voters would have been remiss in ignoring her accomplishments.

D. Wayne Lukas, who trained Lady's Secret and also won the Kentucky Derby with the filly Winning Colors in 1988, believes that Nashoba's Key does not have a prayer to become the fourth filly to win the most coveted of all Eclipse awards no matter what happens at the Breeders' Cup.

"Zero chance," Lukas said by telephone Thursday from Kentucky. "I mean, I don't want to be harsh about it, but I am gonna try to be honest with you, too."

Lukas says Nashoba's Key will be hurt in the voting because all of her victories have come in Southern California and she has not beaten males. The trip to Monmouth Park next week will be her first trip outside of the state.

"You almost have to travel, and you almost have to step out of the box (beat the males), in my opinion," Lukas said. "If you do it all in California, it's like an island out there. It's very, very tough.

"What cinched it for Lady's Secret is she stepped out of the box and beat the colts. When you beat the colts with a filly, you've got a much better chance of probably pulling that off. ... She won the Whitney, which is not just a colt race but a very, very prestigious colt race.

"In doing those things, you get great attention."

In 1986, Lady's Secret won 10 of 15 races, which included eight Grade I scores, and beat the boys four times. She was a well-known commodity heading into the Breeders' Cup that year at Santa Anita.

"In order to be Horse of the Year, you shouldn't have to explain it to anybody, even the lay person in the coffee shops," Lukas said. "You gotta have a Street Sense, a Curlin. You might get an upset in the Classic, but chances are those horses are still in the driver's seat because they are popular. It's a popularity poll, without a doubt."

Like Lady's Secret, All Along also beat the boys and, in the span of 41 days, defeated the world's top grass horses four times in three different countries. Azeri didn't run against the boys until she was 6, but she did travel out of California the year she won Horse of the Year, winning the Grade I Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park. She also won five Grade I races in 2002, whereas Nashoba's Key will finish with only three if she wins next weekend.

Carla Gaines, who trains Nashoba's Key, claims any talk of a possible Horse of the Year award is the furthest thing from her mind.

"It would be great if it happened, but at this stage my goal is to win the turf race and then maybe we could talk about it after that," she said. "Let's see what she does in that race and go from there and see what everybody else does.

"It's not my main focus, otherwise maybe I would have chosen a different route. My main focus is keeping my horse sound and running her when she's ready to run and winning the races that we need to win."

The year Azeri won Horse of the Year, she won the Breeders' Cup Distaff by five lengths in gate-to-wire fashion and was helped when Volponi pulled a 43-1 shocker in the Classic to knock out War Emblem in the Eclipse balloting.

Laura de Seroux, who trained Azeri in 2002, says it's important for Nashoba's Key to not only win her Breeders' Cup race, but to win it impressively enough to maintain any type of chance at Horse of the Year.

"If you remember with Azeri, that was when (jockey) Mike Smith and I said we were going to really let her go," de Seroux said. "Because of weights and everything, we had never really pressed the metal to the floorboard with her.

"And we let her roll that day. She left 'em staggering."

Nashoba's Key maybe hasn't left 'em staggering, winning by more than one length only twice. She might not be Horse of the Year, but the Eclipse Award voters could do a lot worse.

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- Art Wilson