THE GOOD, BAD AND UGLY CD RELEASES FOR FALL : HOPING TO EARN YOUR MUSIC-BUYING BUCK, SOME ARTISTS INNOVATE, OTHERS JUST REPEAT.

Byline: Howard Cohen and Fernando Gonzalez Knight-Ridder Tribune News Wire

No guide to upcoming record releases would be complete without the following reality check: Each of the CDs in your neighborhood record store's discount bins was once someone's idea of sure-thing, can't fail, next-big-hit. Debbie Gibson doing Adult Contemporary? Iron Maiden making a comeback? Admit it, you've said it about something: ``Well, it sounded like a good idea at the time.''

Given that, we present our look ahead at some of fall's hottest (and not-so-hot) ideas: the best bets in various music categories, the sleepers, the duds. People at record companies get paid good money to have this kind of foresight, so we thought we'd give it a try.

See you at the discount bin in six months.

Surefire hit

Pearl Jam, ``No Code,'' (due Aug. 27, Epic): Another therapy session on plastic? We hope not. But anemic lead single ``Who You Are,'' Pearl Jam's half-hearted attempt at world music, is a bad sign.

R.E.M., ``New Adventures in Hi-Fi'' (Sept. 10, Warner Bros.): This could be the season's CD to beat. Most of this hour-plus set's 14 tracks were written and recorded during soundchecks and live performances on last year's arduous Monster Tour. Some of the recording locations were odd - the instrumental ``Zither'' was cut in a dressing-room bathroom in Philadelphia - making ``Hi-Fi'' the modern rock version of Jackson Browne's ``Running Empty'' (1977).

Nirvana, ``From the Banks of Wishkah,'' (Oct. 8, DGC): This is the album surviving members Krist Novoselic (bass) and Dave Grohl (drummer, now a guitarist with Foo Fighters) couldn't bear to listen to so soon after singer Kurt Cobain's death two years ago. ``Wishkah'' features live material not found on last year's posthumous ``MTV Unplugged in New York'' and will include Nirvana's breakthrough hit, ``Smells Like Teen Spirit.''

U2, title T.B.A. (October, Island): First there were reports of Bono & Co. sightings in Miami's South Beach, then late-night jams at Cafe Nostalgia in Little Havana, then the confirmation that U2 was indeed working at South Beach Studios. In fact, according to the band's publicist, U2 recorded material for its new album in Miami Beach and Dublin and is now booked for another week of work at a Dublin studio. The new album, which has not been titled yet, has a tentative October date release.

Luis Miguel, ``Nada Es Igual'' (August, WEA): Mexican pop singer and heartthrob Luis Miguel found unexpected success with his slow-burn updates of boleros in ``Romance'' (1991) and ``Segundo Romance'' (1994). He even found an improbable hit in a poppish update of Carlos Gardel's classic tango ``El Dia Que Me Quieras'' (Gardel is still turning in his grave). If the first single, ``Dame,'' is any indication, ``Nada Es Igual'' brings him back to uptempo pop.

Julio Iglesias, ``Tango'' (October, Sony): Speaking of Gardel: For years, Julio Iglesias has been curious about music styles, from pop-rock and good ol' American country to Italian opera and Colombian ``vallenato.'' His upcoming ``Tango,'' a collection of classic tangos, seems a perfect fit of music style and a singer's persona.

In need of a comeback

Billy Ray Cyrus, ``Trail of Tears'' (Aug. 20, Mercury Nashville): Cyrus seems ready to shed the ``Achy Breaky Heart'' image on his fourth release: ``Tears'' offers a cover of Jeannie C. Riley's ``Harper Valley P.T.A.'' Our panic meter is rising: The prancing country himbo taking on a serious story song about PTA moms?

Tina Turner, ``Wildest Dreams'' (Sept. 10, Virgin): If anyone knows about comebacks, it's Tina Turner. And she could use one now. She's still popular in Europe, but her title theme for ``GoldenEye'' (written by U2 members, no less) was a surprising flop. ``Wildest Dreams' '' first single is a cover of John Waite's melodramatic ``Missing You,'' and the Pet Shop Boys contributed the new ``Confidential.''

The Lemonheads, ``Car Button Cloth'' (Oct. 1, Atlantic): If lead Lemon Evan Dando sold a CD for every mag graced by his mug upon the release of 1993's ``Come on Feel the Lemonheads,'' he'd be hanging a gold record on his wall. He didn't.

Bee Gees, title T.B.A. (fall, Polydor): The Gibbs turn to outside writers for the first time in their 30-year career, collaborating with trip hop act P.M. Dawn on one cut.

Hot new things

BR5-49, ``BR5-49'' (date T.B.A., Arista Nashville): Hip isn't a word that most apply to country, but underground traditionalists BR5-49 are stirring up Nashville with some snarky honky tonk.

Thrasher Shiver, ``Thrasher Shiver'' (Sept. 10, Asylum): Sounds like a heavy metal revival group, but this is a country duo (Neil Thrasher, Kelly Shiver) in a field that incredibly has few such acts (Brooks & Dunn, who else?). The two, who swap lead vocals, say they were influenced by Seals & Crofts and the Everly Brothers. Worth a listen.

The Braxtons, ``So Many Ways'' (Aug. 20, Atlantic): No, this r&b act isn't a conglomeration of Toni Braxton clones, but they are reaping similar success: The title track is a rising r&b hit single.

Do we really need this?

Cheap Trick, ``Sex, America, Cheap Trick'' (Tuesday, Sony Legacy): A four-disc, 64-track box set of Cheap Trick comprising remastered oldies and 30 rarities? Wasn't 1991's single disc ``Greatest Hits'' collection more than sufficient? We don't need this sex, cheap or otherwise.

Devo, ``Adventures of the Smart Patrol'' (Tuesday, Discovery): Q: Are we not over Devo? A: Yes.

Rush, ``Test for Echo'' (Sept. 10, Atlantic): Canadian power pop trio returns with its 16th studio album, and guitarist Alex Lifeson tells Billboard this one has the same vibe as Rush's classic 1981 album ``Moving Pictures.'' We've heard that before. And besides, we're tired of ``Moving Pictures.''

The Beatles, ``Anthology 3'' (Oct. 8, Apple/Capitol): Enough already.

Rock and more

Better Than Ezra, ``Friction Baby'' (Tuesday, Elektra): Modern rockers had a hit with the annoying ``Good'' last year. Maybe this sophomore outting will be simply good?

White Zombie, ``Presents Supersexy Swingin' Sounds'' (Tuesday, Geffen): A collection of remixes sure to become a staple at rock clubs.

Tori Amos, ``Hey Jupiter'' (EP, Aug. 20, Atlantic): Features ``The Dakota Version'' of ``Hey Jupiter'' plus live versions of ``Sugar,'' ``Honey, ``Professional Widow (Merry Widow Version)'' and one whose title could define this artist: ``Somewhere Over the Rainbow.''

Linda Perry, ``In Flight'' (Sept. 10, Interscope): Ex 4-Non Blondes singer, features Grace Slick on one dramatic cut.

Suzanne Vega, ``Nine Objects of Desire'' (Sept. 10, A&M): The folk artist who went electronic offers her first album in four years.

Elton John, ``Love Songs'' (Sept. 24, Rocket): Latest greatest hits collection (released around the world last year) with two new songs, ``You Can Make History (Young Again)'' and ``No Valentines.''

Dancin', Dancin'

Pet Shop Boys, ``Bilingual'' (Sept. 10, Atlantic): Welcome back England's finest pop-song crafters of the day. Check out the instantly memorable hooks in this winning collection. ``Se A Vida E'' sounds like a hit to us.

John Mellencamp, ``Mr. Happy Go Lucky'' (Sept. 10, Mercury): Mellencamp in the dance category? When ``Pink Houses'' crumble. Master DJ/remixer Junior Vasquez co-produced this CD, but fear not: Mellencamp's sound has undergone a facelift. It will make you wanna move, but you'll still recognize it.

Dancin', line dancin'

Randy Travis, ``Full Circle'' (Tuesday, Warner Bros.): Travis helped kick-start country by returning it to its roots in the mid-'80s after the short-lived ``Urban Cowboy'' fixation. We hope he can do it again on ``Full Circle.'' The first single, a cover of Mark Knopfler's ``Are We in Trouble Now,'' is slowly ascending the chart.

George Jones, ``I Lived to Tell It All'' (Tuesday, MCA): A traditional-sounding collection of hard-drinking songs by a former hard drinker. This somewhat derivative CD might be one glass short of a buzz, though.

Ty Herndon, ``Living in a Moment'' (Tuesday, Epic): Herndon's second shot of pop/country aims to transcend the cookie-cutter batter of its predecessor. We suspect a new baker is required.

Trisha Yearwood, ``Everybody Knows'' (Aug. 27, MCA Nashville): We're not sure what ``everybody knows'' about Yearwood (or what she's willing to reveal here) but know this: The woman can sing (she was the classiest contemporary singer at the Olympics closing ceremony).

Travis Tritt, ``The Restless Kind'' (Aug. 27, Warner Bros.): Features producer Don Was, singers Lari White (a duet on ``Helping Me Get Over You'') and Marty Stuart (on ``Double Trouble''), plus Heartbreaker keyboardist Benmont Tench.

All that jazz

Joshua Redman, ``Freedom in the Groove'' (Sept. 24, Warner Bros.): Saxophonist has survived the Young-Lion hype that fueled much of the jazz revival of the '80s to become a true leader. Technicians are a dime a dozen; Redman knows how to tell a story - and knows the value of the notes not played.

John Scofield, ``Quiet'' (Sept. 24, Verve): The electric guitarists' electric guitarist makes a sudden departure in his first album for Verve, playing nylon string guitar. Also, instead of his bruising small group, Scofield is backed here by a brass and reeds ensemble.

David Sanchez, ``Street Stories'' (Sept. 24, Columbia): For many, for too long, Latin jazz has meant jazz harmonies and improvisation over congas. Weaned on Sonny Rollins and Eddie Palmieri, bebop and ``bomba y plena,'' not Sanchez. The Puerto Rican saxophonist has been steadily developing a hip and organic mix of jazz and Afro-Caribbean music.

Joe Henderson, ``Shades of Jade'' (Oct. 22, Verve): After years of benign neglect from critics and audiences, this saxophonist has enjoyed a much-deserved revival in the '90s, winning Grammys and polls with stunning regularity. Success means muscle, and now Henderson is fulfilling an old dream and releasing his first-ever big band recording.

``The Complete Columbia Studio Recordings of Miles Davis and Gil Evans'' (Sept. 3, Columbia): From their work on ``Birth of the Cool'' (1949) to the extraordinary trilogy ``Miles Ahead,'' ``Porgy and Bess'' and ``Sketches of Spain'' (1957-1960) and beyond, this partnership of trumpeter Davis and arranger Evans is one of the most rewarding in jazz history. Now, here comes a six-CD set that also includes ``Quiet Nights'' and the never-issued ``Time of the Barracudas.''

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3 Photos

Photo: (1) The ever-changing Julio Iglesias explores the tango on his upcoming Sony release.

(2) Tina Turner aims for her next comeback with a new album, ``Wildest Dreams.''

(3) One of the season's most anticipated releases, R.E.M.'s ``New Adventures in Hi-Fi'' was written and recorded in some unlikely locations during the band's last tour.