THE ENVELOPE, PLEASE - AND SOME PERSPECTIVE.

Byline: Glenn Whipp Film Critic

Just because this year's Oscars are shaping up to be the Scorsese and Eastwood show (with critical favorite ``Sideways'' thrown in because, you know, it's actually one of the year's best movies) doesn't mean that one of those films will ultimately take the top prize.

After all, if a dirt-poor, blind child from rural Georgia can grow up to be one of the shaping forces of 20th-century music, why bet against the biopic that lionizes him? Ray Charles made a career out of defying conventional wisdom. Perhaps Taylor Hackford's ``Ray'' will do the same.

Here's how the nominations should play out (and would play out, if academy voters were more open-minded) when they're announced on Tuesday morning:

PICTURE

Sure bets: ``The Aviator,'' ``Million Dollar Baby,'' ``Sideways''

Possible: ``Finding Neverland,'' ``Hotel Rwanda,'' ``The Incredibles,'' ``Kinsey,'' ``Ray''

Likely to get a nomination but probably shouldn't: ``Finding Neverland.'' No one should be surprised at Miramax's ability to elevate middling movies like ``Neverland'' into one of the top five Oscar slots. Still, even those whose eyes welled up at the end of this likable weepie don't think it to be one of the year's best movies. Yet it looks like ``Neverland'' will be this year's ``Chocolat.''

Should get a nomination but likely won't: ``Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.'' Meanwhile, it's all but assured that the academy will overlook Michel Gondry's audacious masterpiece, which trumps ``Neverland'' in its imagination as well as its ability to break your heart.

Analysis: It's all about the battle for the fourth and fifth slots, with feel-good uplift (``Ray,'' ``Neverland'') going against deeply felt civics lessons (``Rwanda,'' ``Motorcycle Diaries'' and, with showboating distortion, ``Fahrenheit 9/11''). Meanwhile, there's the feeling that voters might want to nominate a movie people actually saw and include Pixar's deserving ``Incredibles'' here as well as in the animation category.

Prediction: ``The Aviator,'' ``Finding Neverland,'' ``Million Dollar Baby,'' ``Ray,'' ``Sideways''

ACTOR

Sure bets: Leonardo DiCaprio, ``The Aviator''; Jamie Foxx, ``Ray''

Probable: Paul Giamatti, ``Sideways''

Possible: Javier Bardem, ``The Sea Inside''; Don Cheadle, ``Hotel Rwanda''; Johnny Depp, ``Finding Neverland''; Clint Eastwood, ``Million Dollar Baby''; Liam Neeson, ``Kinsey''

Likely to get a nomination but probably shouldn't: DiCaprio. He does as much as he can, but never quite overcomes misgivings that he wasn't right for the part in the first place.

Should get a nomination but likely won't: Cheadle. The always-great actor was at his best here in his subtle portrayal of a decent man forced into heroism by extreme circumstances.

Analysis: Two slots - five possibilities. (Six, if you include glad-handing campaigner Spacey.) Voters may ignore Eastwood here, honoring him in the director category. They may also figure that Depp got his reward last year for ``Pirates.'' But since voters are as star-struck as anyone else, I'm guessing it will be the often-overlooked Cheadle who will be shortchanged, penalized for what makes his work so good - its absence of grandstanding.

Prediction: Depp, DiCaprio, Eastwood, Foxx, Giamatti

ACTRESS

Sure bets: Annette Bening, ``Being Julia''; Hilary Swank, ``Million Dollar Baby''

Probable: Imelda Staunton, ``Vera Drake''

Possible: Scarlett Johansson, ``A Love Song for Bobby Long''; Catalina Sandrino Moreno, ``Maria Full of Grace''; Kate Winslet, ``Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind''

Likely to get a nomination but probably shouldn't: Staunton. It's a two- note performance: chirpy and catatonic.

Should get a nomination but likely won't: Thurman. It's the kind of story the academy loves - wounded, loving mother looking for the child unfairly taken from her. Of course, said mother isn't above ripping out an adversary's one remaining eyeball to accomplish the anticipated mother-and-child reunion, and that will kill Uma in the eyes of voters who can't open their minds to other genres. That's a shame since Thurman not only gives us one of the great female action heroes in movie history, but also she makes us feel the woman's emotional pain, which runs deeper than any sword wound.

Analysis: Swank is the clear front-runner. Bening will get love, since her portrait of a vain, aging actress trying to stay on top will obviously resonate with more than a few voters. Staunton's movie hasn't been widely seen, but critics' group awards have boosted her chances. After that, look for deserving Winslet, an academy favorite, and - surprise - newcomer Moreno (another favorite of critics) to nab the last two slots.

Prediction: Bening, Moreno, Staunton, Swank, Winslet

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sure bets: Thomas Haden Church, ``Sideways''; Morgan Freeman, ``Million Dollar Baby''

Probable: Clive Owen, ``Closer''

Possible: Alec Baldwin, ``The Aviator''; Jamie Foxx, ``Collateral''; Peter Sarsgaard, ``Kinsey''

Long shots: David Carradine, ``Kill Bill - Vol. 2''

Likely to get a nomination but probably shouldn't: Freeman. Nothing against him. Really. He's quite good as Clint's confidante in ``Million Dollar Baby.'' It's just that we've seen him do this sort of saintly thing before - which is probably why he'll ultimately win, since the Oscars are more about career achievement than honoring the year's most distinctive performances.

Should get a nomination but likely won't: Mark Wahlberg. Talk about distinctive. Wahlberg was fearless and so, so funny as the despairing, disillusioned firefighter looking for life's meaning in ``I (Heart) Huckabees,'' a movie that Fox Searchlight has completely ignored while promoting ``Sideways'' and ``Kinsey.''

Analysis: This category is atypically thin, meaning that Foxx, this year's ``Why is he in this category?'' contestant will probably be one of 2005's double nominees. Sarsgaard finally gets his due.

Prediction: Church, Foxx, Freeman, Owen, Sarsgaard

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Sure bets: Cate Blanchett, ``The Aviator''; Virginia Madsen, ``Sideways''; Natalie Portman, ``Closer''

Probable: Laura Linney, ``Kinsey''

Possible: Meryl Streep, ``The Manchurian Candidate,'' Kate Winslet, ``Finding Neverland''

Likely to get a nomination but probably shouldn't: Blanchett. Her impersonation of Katharine Hepburn is fun, but it's a thinly written part.

Should get a nomination but likely won't: Edna Mode. OK, so the oh-so- fabulous fashion designer from ``The Incredibles'' isn't a real person, not to mention that she's voiced by a guy (writer-director Brad Bird). Outside of Madsen's soulful, wine-loving waitress, though, there wasn't a supporting turn that connected as well.

Analysis: Madsen should have her Oscar acceptance speech pretty well honed by the time of the ceremony. She's the class of the category. Winslet edges perennial nominee Streep for the fifth slot, thanks to Miramax's tireless promotion and her film's year-end slot.

Prediction: Blanchett, Linney, Madsen, Portman, Winslet

DIRECTOR

Sure bets: Clint Eastwood, ``Million Dollar Baby''; Alexander Payne, ``Sideways''; Martin Scorsese, ``The Aviator''

Probable: Taylor Hackford, ``Ray''

Possible: Marc Forster, ``Finding Neverland''; Michael Mann, ``Collateral''; Bill Condon, ``Kinsey''

Long shots: Terry George, ``Hotel Rwanda''; Michel Gondry, ``Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind''

Likely to get a nomination but probably shouldn't: Forster. See comments in best picture.

Should get a nomination but likely won't: Gondry. Michel Gondry, ``Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind''

Analysis: Typically, this category mirrors the best picture race - with one exception. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like there's enough support for Mann, Condon or Gondry - all more deserving than Hackford and especially Forster - to make this the case this year.

Prediction: Eastwood, Forster, Hackford, Payne, Scorsese

Glenn Whipp, [phone]

glenn.whipp(at)dailynews.com

CAPTION(S):

3 photos

Photo:

(1) CHEADLE

(2) THURMAN

(3) EDNA MODE