THE EARLY SHOW AS NEXT YEAR'S OSCARS MOVE TO FEBRUARY, EXPECT STUDIOS TO CHANGE THE WAY THEY RELEASE AND PROMOTE AWARD-WORTHY MOVIES.

Byline: Glenn Whipp Film Writer

The uncertainty over this year's Oscars - whether they will be held, whether they should be held - serves as a warm-up for next year's Academy Awards ceremony, which will take place 11 months from now.

Beginning next year, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will embark on what it calls a ``two-year experiment,'' holding the Oscars a month earlier than normal. The advanced date has rocked the worlds of Oscar strategists, publicists and a few studio executives who have no idea how the compressed schedule will impact the awards landscape.

Of course, given the current state of the world, such concerns seem like small potatoes. And they are. Still, the show must go on. Here we try to answer the most pressing questions regarding next year's Oscars.

When will the Oscars be held next year?

The 76th annual Academy Awards will be handed out on Feb. 29, 2004.

Will nominations be moved up accordingly?

The academy will not announce next year's timetable until after this year's awards. But it's logical to assume that everything will happen two to four weeks earlier. Nomination ballots could go out in late December, with the nominations themselves revealed in mid- to late January. Most of the time it's a 40-day gap between announcements and ceremony, which would put next year's nomination day, assuming it stays on a Tuesday, on Jan. 20.

Why the switch?

Too many awards shows were stealing the academy's thunder. Or so says Bruce Davis, academy executive director. Between the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild awards, British Academy of Film and Television awards, People's Choice Awards, and various and sundry critics' parties, the Oscars were becoming more of an afterthought than a definitive night of nights.

Might the academy have other motives?

Of course. An earlier date is beneficial to ABC since the Oscars will take place just after the February sweeps end, a time when most other networks are running repeats. ABC will also be able to promote its Oscar telecast during sweeps, potentially increasing ratings. Then again, they thought ratings would skyrocket by moving the event from Monday to Sunday, and that hasn't happened. Perhaps we reached the ceiling of people interested in an orgy of self-congratulation.

Aside from flipping the calendar a month ahead to circle the date, why should I care about the move?

Well, for one thing, it might mean that studios will begin to spread out their prestige pictures instead of cramming them all into the month of December. Also, an earlier date means less time to build momentum, so it is likely that independent films needing strong word-of-mouth support will be released in October and November instead of mid-December.

``I have been told very quietly by more than one studio executive that they will begin to spread the opening dates of the more ambitious pictures out through the calendar,'' the academy's Davis says. ``Not that we're going to see a slew of ambitious pictures in February. But I can't imagine that it makes financial sense for studios to open that many pictures at the same time.''

Says publicist and awards consultant Michele Robertson: ``For the smaller, more specialized films, the window of September and October will become more critical. The New York, Toronto and Venice film festivals will gain from this and will be used as launching pads. It's all about momentum and timing. And the independent films will need more time now to get that momentum going.''

But will there be enough time for independent films to build that momentum?

Movies like ``The Pianist,'' ``Far From Heaven'' and ``Talk to Her'' need media exposure to build support. With November being a sweeps month for networks, Robertson believes it will be more difficult for actors who aren't megastars to get needed placement on talk shows.

``With the bigger films now moving to November, space is going to be at a premium,'' Robertson says.

Notes another strategist: ``Smaller movies will run the risk of irrelevance. The problem will come when you have a worthy movie but no stars, like 'The Pianist.' Movies like 'The Hours' won't be in trouble because you've got Nicole Kidman on the cover of every magazine.''

Meanwhile, highly anticipated studio films - among them Fox's ``Master & Commander'' (currently scheduled for Nov. 14), Miramax's ``Cold Mountain'' (Christmas Day), Warner Bros.' ``The Last Samurai'' (Dec. 5) and the final chapter in the ``Lord of the Rings'' trilogy (Dec. 17) - won't have any problem nabbing headlines.

``Big pictures get noticed - kablooey, they're out there,'' says one academy member and Oscar strategist. ``The thing is, right now most studios don't make the decisions to release films with Oscar on their mind. They want to make money. Period.''

``There are exceptions,'' the academy member notes. ``(DreamWorks co-chairman Jeffrey) Katzenberg to some extent and, of course, (Miramax co-chairman) Harvey (Weinstein). For Harvey, Oscar is all there is. He'll hold a movie for a year for the Oscar timing. And that's not bad, because he promotes a movie's box-office and Oscar chances with one big push. Focus copied him this year with ``The Pianist,'' and guess what, they're nominated. Look for everyone to start doing it that way.''

With the shorter window, will voters be able to see all the movies?

Depends on whom you ask. One academy member, a self-described ``film geek,'' says it won't be a problem.

``If you're conscientious and not an idiot, you know what stands a chance,'' he says. ``Anyone with half a brain knows what films you're supposed to see.''

Counters another academy member: ``It's not going to be pretty. The two categories that are going to be in big trouble are foreign films and documentaries, categories that have selection committees with early deadlines. Hardly anyone votes in those categories now. You move the date up, and you're running up against family vacations taken during the holidays.''

So what about those other awards shows?

The Screen Actors Guild, the Directors Guild of America, and the British Academy of Film and Television Arts all moved up their shows accordingly, with only SAG setting a date - Feb. 8. (The Grammys will also be given out in February, making it a heavy award month.)

The wild card at the moment is the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which traditionally hosts the Golden Globes during the third week of January. HFPA president Dagmar Dunlevy says no decision has been made about moving the event.

If the Globes stay put, they could take place after Oscar nominations have been announced, theoretically diminishing their clout. Internet movie columnist David Poland believes that's a primary reason the Oscars were moved in the first place.

``They want to get rid of the Globes,'' Poland says. ``It's one situation where the academy is embarrassed and devalued. This year is an example. Everyone was sure who was going to be nominated, with maybe one slot in each category up for grabs. It's no fun. How excited can you be about the Oscars if you already know who's going to win.''

Whether the Oscar date change will impact the Globes, though, remains to be seen. DreamWorks marketing executive Terry Press told movie theater owners at their ShoWest confab two weeks ago that the ``Globes are going to become even more powerful because the show is going to come when Oscar ballots are out.''

``Hollywood needs the Globes,'' says another studio executive, ``if for no other reason than to use as a marketing tool.''

Will a shorter window make for a less-politicized Oscar campaign?

Don't bet on it. While academy members interviewed for this story remained hopeful that, as one voter put it, ``people will have less time for the nuttiness and have to focus on the films themselves,'' most remained skeptical that the current era of gossip, innuendo and mudslinging will end.

``Leopards don't change their spots just because the calendar changes,'' says one Oscar strategist. ``If anything, you'll see more back-stabbing because of the shortened time period.''

What movies will we be talking about next year?

The nominees are: Miramax's ``Cold Mountain,'' Anthony Minghella's adaptation of Charles Frazier's best-selling Civil War-era novel; Peter Weir's epic ``Master & Commander: The Far Side of the World'' with Russell Crowe; ``The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King,'' the last chapter in Peter Jackson's Tolkien trilogy; the horse biopic ``Seabiscuit'' and ``The Alamo,'' Disney's retelling of the famous stand, which probably will resonate with voters in these troubled times.

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(1 -- 2) Films generating buzz for next year's Oscar race include ``Master & Commander: The Far Side of the World'' with Russell Crowe, above, and ``Cold Mountain,'' left, with Jude Law and Nicole Kidman.

(3 -- 4) ``Seabiscuit,'' with Tobey Maguire, near right, Chris Cooper and Jeff Bridges and ``The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King,'' below, with Elijah Wood, will look to impress academy voters in 2004.