Syria - Limited Room For Manoeuvre.

The Baathist regime of President Bashar Al Assad is finding itself being squeezed into a tightening corner with progressively less room for manoeuvre. The recent Israeli air strike on an alleged Palestinian Islamist terror camp deep inside Syria marked a turning point in the confrontation between the Arabs and Israel as a whole, but between Syria and Israel in particular. The move has effectively taken Lebanon out of the equation, or at least reduced its weight in the equation, because Israel signalled with the strike that the proxy use of Lebanon as a "cats paw" by Syria was no longer applicable - and it got an American endorsement of this change in approach.

The Syrian regime is now at the point where it must choose between fighting a war and curbing its support for Palestinian Islamist groups. Damascus has warned that another Israeli strike on Syrian soil will face a tough response, but it remains to be seen whether this would involve military action. It was noted by people in both Lebanon and Syria that the Israeli strike went totally unchallenged, to the extent that reportedly even the air defence systems were not activated. Most observers feel the regime of President Assad will merely step up its support for cross-border attacks by Hizbollah from South Lebanon. But this may not satisfy Syrian public opinion, especially if Israel keeps hitting targets within Syria. The US has already indicated that it will not intervene to restrain Israeli Premier Ariel Sharon, but instead it is hinting that Syria may well become an American target in the war against terror.

On Oct. 8, a US House committee voted in favour of legislation to impose a range of sanctions against Syria, accusing it of supporting terrorism and pursuing weapons of mass destruction. The move came following decision by the White House to drop its opposition to the sanctions move. Partly, this has to do with the way in which Syria has manoeuvred itself in the post-9/11 era, especially in its opposition to the military operation to oust the regime of Saddam Hussein and its current criticism of the US occupation of Iraq.

There is growing suspicion in the US that the incidence of attacks in Iraq is being supported by Damascus, where the ruling Baathist regime wants to avoid a repeat of what happened to its Iraqi branch. Kuwait's Al Rai Al Aam newspaper reported on Oct. 25 that fighters were infiltrating into Iraq from both Syria and Iran, noting the emergence of two new fighting units "Jundullah" (warriors of God) and "Al Usud" (the lions). The paper says that Al Usud members gather in north-western Iraq close to Syria where they receive newcomers from across the border. Together with Jundullah members, Al Usud fighters have carried out recent attacks on oil installations in Mosul and Baiji, according to the newspaper.