Syria's Ba'thist Regime Is Navigating Through Tough Times To Survive.

*** Olmert Warned On Sept. 4 That Israel Will Use All Its Force In The Event Of War With Syria, As Damascus Was Mulling Over A 'Limited Operation' On The Golan Front, Which Has Been Peaceful Since Hafez Al-Assad  Signed The 1974 Disengagement Deal Brokered By Dr. Kissinger

*** Hizbullah & Gen. Michel Aoun's Syria-Backed Christians Want To Stage A Coup In Beirut For A Govt. To Derail The UN Probe - Through A New Series Of Political Assassinations?

*** Annan On Sept. 1 Thought He Had Won Syrian OK For Lebanon's UN Peace Plan; But As He Flew Into Tehran, Damascus Said The Opposite - Annan's UN Term Ends On Dec. 31

BEIRUT - The Ba'thist regime of Syria, a family-run dictatorship inherited by Bashar al-Assad  after his presiding father died in June 2000, is trying to survive through a course of action which may eventually turn out to be dangerous to neighbouring states. In his way of navigating through difficult times, Assad has confused even some of his allies in Syria's Alawite minority.

Assad, an Alawite turned Sunni to be president, faces potentially explosive situations. By end-September, a UN commission probing the murder of several top politicians in Lebanon will have submitted a report to the UN Security Council (UNSC) and Assad is said to lead the suspects. Assad wants his course of action to prevent the UNSC from forming a tribunal to try the murders. With a corrupt regime, Syria's economy is in bad shape and the unemployment rate is high

According to Syria's former Vice President Abdul-Halim Khaddam, who defected to the opposition in late 2005, the days of Assad's regime are numbered. He says President Assad ordered the assassination of Rafiq Hariri, Lebanon's former PM, and the other politicians. Hariri was killed with 22 others in a huge bomb in central Beirut on Feb. 14, 2005. Three politicians were later killed separately.

The UN commission is probing all those murders and attempts on the lives of other Lebanese VIPs - beginning with a failed attempt to kill Druze politician Marwan Hamadeh, now Lebanon's minister of communications, in early October 2004. He, Hariri and a number of others opposed to Syria's control of Lebanon were to be eliminated as they were against the extension of Lebanese President Emile Lahoud's six-year term. The term of Laboud, a puppet of the Ass ad regime, was in early September 2004 extended by another three years despite opposition by many Lebanese MPs.

In an interview with Lebanon's Future TV on Aug. 27, Khaddam said it was impossible for a 1,000-kilo blast to occur in central Beirut on Feb. 14, 2005, without a prior order from President Assad. Khaddam repeated a charge he had made in December 2005 that Assad personally threatened Hariri during the latter's brief meeting with the Syrian ruler in August 2004. Assad, he said, was then insisting that Lahoud's term be extended and that Assad's orders concerning Lebanon be obeyed in Beirut.

Commenting on Assad's Aug. 15 speech, which he described as mediocre "not fit even for a high-school student", Khaddam said the Syrian president called Arab rulers "half-men" because he now was part of an Iran-led axis of players using Lebanon's Shi'ite group Hizbullah in military hostilities against both the US and Israel (see News Service issues Nos. 4-10). Khaddam said the Hizbullah-Israel war did not end and that it could take another course which might involve Syria as well.

When Assad was forced to withdraw Syrian troops from Lebanon in late April 2005 - after occupation since April 1976 - his regime in Damascus began a descent to dangerous lows in several parts of Syria. The Alawite minority in the west is largely hostile to him.

Syria's Kurds openly rebelled in the north-east and the statue of the late Hafez al-Assad, the president's father, was toppled in the centre of Qamishli, a town not far from the Iraqi border which now has a Kurdish majority. They are being encouraged by the self-rule developments in Iraq's Kurdistan where the leadership has recently ordered the Kurdish flag to replace the one Saddam Hussein had established during his Ba'thist dictatorship (see this week's survey in fap3-IraqKurdistanSep11-06).

One short-term aim in Assad's new course of action is to get the Lebanese government of Fou'ad Siniora to be changed in favour of the Syrian regime by having a "national unity cabinet" in which Hizbullah and other Damascus-based groups, such as the predominantly-Christian coalition of Gen. Michel Aoun, would get most of the portfolios. Since the truce under UNSC Resolution 1701 took effect on Aug. 14 - Hizbullah having proclaimed "victory" over Israel - Aoun has been particularly vocal about a change of government. On Aug. 28, for example, Aoun repeated this call, threatening escalation through street riots and declaring: "It is the right of the Lebanese that a new government be formed, with new people, in view of the behaviour of this government during the events". Aoun said the government's behaviour during the hostilities was inadequate, implying what Hizbullah privately called "collusion with the US and Israel" against the Shi'ite group which is sponsored by Iran.

An editorial in The Daily Star of Beirut recently said: "A bright spot of the recent war was the [Siniora] government's ability to outmaneuver Hizbullah, which irked Aoun. But given the state of affairs today, a cabinet change would be a calamity". It has become common knowledge in Beirut that Assad wants a changed government to derail the UN investigation into the murder charges and to prevent formation of a UN-led tribunal which eventually could convict the Ba'thist regime of Damascus. He may even provoke a regional war for that.

Assad has been mulling over a "limited war of attrition on the Golan Heights" between Syrian and Israeli forces. Assad made hints to that effect in his Aug. 15 speech as he said Syria would exploit "Hizbullah's victory against the enemy... for the sake of peace". But Israeli PM Ehud Olmert on Sept. 4 was prompt in responding to more recent hints to that effect by saying the Jewish state will immediately use all its strike capability against Syria.

The Daily Star of Beirut on Sept. 7 said the security edifice of Assad's regime required a state of war with Israel, and "that edifice is essential to protecting Alawite rule" in Syria. It said: "the argument in favour of the Syrian regime's alleged secularism is equally vacant. It is Syria that has dispatched most foreign [Neo-Salafi] Islamists into Iraq, and that has armed or supported Palestinian, Lebanese, and Jordanian Islamists - Sunni and Shiite. After crushing the Muslim Brotherhood in Hama in 1982, the Syrian regime embarked on a massive expansion of mosques and religious schools, both to better control Islamic currents and to regain some legitimacy. Consequently, Islam has grown in Syria, and while it has yet to challenge the regime, Assad has warned his critics and foes that if he were to fall, the Islamists would take over.

"Once again, that perennial tactic of creating a problem, then using it as a barrier against change [is at play]. But perhaps the best reason to keep isolating Syria is Lebanon. Assad's deepest desire is to re-establish Syrian hegemony over the country. One reason for this, aside from Lebanon's ability to again grant Syria regional relevance, is the United Nations' investigation of Hariri's assassination. All the signs are that Syria will be accused of the crime, which could bring down the Assad regime. By dominating Lebanon, the Syrian president could stifle the investigation, which relies heavily on Lebanese judicial cooperation.

"More generally, Assad would exploit any Western opening in order to seize power in Lebanon through his Lebanese allies, against the majority that forced a Syrian withdrawal last year. If this were to succeed, who would be the Praetorian Guard of that new order? Hizbullah. The party could, thus, preserve its autonomy, marginalize its domestic adversaries, and thrive under Syria's sympathetic eye. This factor alone explains why Syria would never accept to diminish Hizbullah's power. As Syria plots a return to Lebanon, it has no intention of harming its main ally in that venture. This is no time to engage Syria. If anything, it is time to warn Syria that, because it sits at the nexus point of regional instability - in Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, and even Jordan - it had better alter its behavior, or the US may seriously think about ways of finding an alternative to Assad. This need not be done by war, of course. Yet unless the Bush administration finds credible means to force 'behavior change instead of regime change' in Damascus, it might soon find that war is inevitable.

The Sunday Times of London on Sept. 3 said: Concluding that too much attention had been paid to the Palestinians, Israel was shifting its focus to war planning against Syria and Iran. It said the fighting with Hizbullah, which was far more difficult than the Israeli military thought it would be, had led to a strategic rethink.

The Christian Science Monitor on Sept. 5 quoted "an Israeli defence source" as saying: "The challenge from Iran and Syria is now top of the Israeli defence agenda, higher than the Palestinian one". Shortly before the war in Lebanon, Maj-Gen Eliezer Shkedi, commander of the air force, was placed in charge of the "Iranian front", a new position in the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF).

The Monitor said: "His job will be to command any future strikes on Iran and Syria". It quoted "Israeli military sources" as saying: Iran's continued pursuit of a nuclear program means that war 'is likely to become unavoidable'". It quoted an "insider" as saying: "In the past we prepared for a possible military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, but Iran's growing confidence after the war in Lebanon means we have to prepare for a full-scale war, in which Syria will be an important player". The paper said a new infantry brigade had been formed named Kfir (lion cub), "which will be the largest in the Israeli army". The Monitor quoted "a military source" as saying of Fkir: "It is a partial solution for the challenge of the Syrian commando brigades, which are considered better than Hizbullah's".

Fareed Zakaria, the editor of Newsweek Int'l, writes in his World View column that those who say Iran is like Nazi Germany and who make comparisons to 1938 in Europe are barking up the wrong tree. He says: "Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has gone from being an obscure and not-so-powerful politician to a central player in the Mideast", simply by goading the US. (In 1938, Adolf Hitler launched what became a world war not only because he was evil but because he was in control of the strongest country on the planet. At the time, Germany had the world's second largest industrial base and its mightiest army).

The American economy was bigger, but in 1938 its army was smaller than that of Finland. This is not remotely comparable with the situation today. Iran does not even rank among the top 20 economies in the world. The Pentagon's budget this year is more than double Iran's total GDP (US$181 bn, in official exchange-rate terms). America's annual defence outlay is more than 100 times Iran's. Tehran's nuclear ambitions can be real and dangerous, but its programme is not nearly as advanced as is often implied. Most serious estimates suggest that Iran would need between five and ten years to achieve even a modest, North Korea-type, nuclear capacity.

Zakaria writes that while Iran frustrates US and Western interests and causes problems for Israel, it is time to "get some perspective", noting that the US is far more powerful than Iran. And, on the issue of Tehran's nuclear programme, he says Washington is backed by most of the world's other major powers. As long as the alliance is patient, united and smart - and keeps the focus on Tehran's actions not Washington's bellicosity - the odds favour America.

Ahmadi-Nejad presides over a country where more than 40% of the population lives under the poverty line; his authority is contested, and Iran's neighbours are increasingly worried and have begun acting to counter its influence. If the US could contain the Soviet Union, Zakaria argues, it can contain Iran.

Israel on Sept. 7 lifted an air blockade on Lebanon which had been in force since the start of its war with Hizbullah on July 12. It lifted the sea blockade on Sept. 8 as naval units from France, Italy and Greece replaced those of Israel at command positions over Lebanese seaports - British naval units are also to take part. These replacements are temporary until the German navy takes over later in the month.

Israel had refused to lift its air and sea blockade until it was satisfied that enough foreign forces were in place to prevent weapons reaching Hizbullah. Israeli officials said they were still concerned about the land border between Lebanon and Syria - with suspicions that Syria was letting Iranian arms reach Hizbullah through its territory. But Israel warned that its air force will attack any convoy of trucks carrying suspect material while crossing the Syria-Lebanon border.

The blockade was lifted after a week of urgent telephone diplomacy by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, French President Jacques Chirac and German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, as well as Israeli PM Ehud Olmert and Lebanese PM Siniora. An exhausted but elated Annan on Sept. 6 greeted the announcement as a vital move to enable humanitarian aid and reconstruction of Lebanon to start.

Annan on Sept. 6 flew from Ankara to Madrid at the end of a 10-day tour of Middle East capitals to bolster the UN peace plan for Lebanon. The deal which persuaded Olmert to lift the blockade involved French, Italian, Greek and British ships patrolling the Lebanese coastline for the next two weeks, before they are replaced by a long-term German naval task-force, involving Scandinavian and Turkish ships as well. Germany has also agreed to provide 10 airport police and customs experts to reinforce security at Beirut airport, as well as technical equipment and training to help the Lebanese government tighten security along its border with Syria. The airport security deal was the final element in a complex package designed to allay Israeli fears that arms would be smuggled to Hizbullah as soon as its air and sea blockade was lifted.

Ms Rice, who had been in daily telephone contact with Annan, played a key part in persuading Olmert to accept the package. From the start of his tour Annan had stressed that lifting the embargo was an essential step to make the Lebanon peace plan work. UN officials said failure to lift the blockade was not only stopping reconstruction, but undermining the political authority of the Lebanese government.

Samir Shehadeh, a top intelligence officer who had a key role in the proble into the killing of Hariri, was wounded on Sept. 5 as his two-vehicle convoy was struck by a remote-controlled roadside bomb. Four of Shehadeh's guards and aides were killed near the southern city of Sidon. The local media pointed to the Syrian regime as having been behind the attempt. Shehadeh in 2005 arrested the heads of Lebanon's four security networks as being among the suspect in the Hariri killing. The four generals had turned their networks into twins of Syria's security system years before Lahoud came to the presidency in 1998. At the time Lahoud used to command Lebanon's Army; he was groomed for the presidency by the late Hafez al-Assad because he refused to send the Army to south Lebanon - where Syria enjoyed a long proxy war against Israel through Hizbullah, a window now closed by UNSC Resolution 1701.