Synthetic rubber flat in 2000, to increase by 3.0%.

After a flat showing in 2000, worldwide synthetic rubber (SR) consumption to 2005 is expected to increase by 3% per year, according to statistics released by the International Institute of Synthetic Rubber Producers (IISRP).

Consumption in 2000 dipped 0.2% with consumption of 8.2 million metric tons. For 2001, the IISRP forecasts a growth rate of 1.1% as the global economy cools off.

Notably, China recorded the greatest SR growth in 2001, rising by 5.9% to 723 thousand tons (kt), according to Britt D. Theismann, IISRP director of statistical information.

New rubber consumption by type worldwide

Product                1999     2000     2001     2005

SBR solid             3,239    3,193    3,213    3,705
Potybutadiene         1,970    1,985    2,024    2,248
Ethylene propylene      851      866      872    1,042
Polychloroprene         290      290      290      308
Nitrile solid           325      322      326      371
Polyisoprene            162      155      154      176
Other synthetics        977      971      975    1,080
Total SR-CIS(*)         400      415      435      550

Total SR              8,213    8,196    8,288    9,479

Natural rubber        6,758    7,155    7,220    8,051

Total new rubber     14,971   15,351   15,508   17,530

Synthetic percent     54.9%    53.4%    53.4%    54.1%

TPEs                  1,345    1,374    1,431    1,725

Thousand metric tons

In Asia and Oceania, a slowdown was evident in the SR consumption figures which decreased by 7% to 1,682 kt. Latin America also experienced negative growth of 3.5% at 578 kt.

In Western Europe, SR growth was moderate at 1.6% to 1,811 kt. North America also experienced moderate growth of 1.1% at 2,494 kt.

"In the lesser consuming regions," he added, "Central Europe continued to show healthy growth, increasing by 5.3% to 300 kt."

In the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), 2000 signaled a turnaround in SR consumption. Although the economic future in the CIS remains uncertain, SR use increased for the first time in over ten years by 3.8% to 415 kt.

Of the major elastomer types, only polybutadiene (BR), and ethylene propylene rubber (EPR, both EPM and EPDM) showed overall positive growth in 2000, Theismann said. BR increased by 0.8% to 1,985 kt and EPDM increased by 1.8% to 866 kt. He reported consumption of other synthetic rubbers in 2000 as follows: Styrene butadiene (SBR) decreased by 1.4% at 3,193 kt; Acrylonitrile butadiene rubber (NBR) decreased by 1% to 322 kt; polychloropene (CR) was flat at 290 kt; so-called other rubbers, predominately butyl (IIR) and specialty elastomers, decreasing by 0.6% to 971 kt.

Theismann said all geographic regions tire expected to show gains in SR use over the coming five-year period. China is expected to resume its growth at an impressive 8.4% to 1,080 kt in 2005. "In Asia and Oceania, we're forecasting an annual growth rate of 2.8% to 1,931 kt in 2005."

Although the situation in the CIS remains uncertain. The forecast calls for optimism with a growth rate of 5.8% to 550 kt in 2005.

Growth in central Europe should average 3.7% to 359 kt by 2005.

In western Europe, consumption is expected to grow moderately over the next five years. It is forecast to rise at an annual rate of 1.5% to 1,947 kt in 2005. In the Middle East and Africa, predictions call for a growth rate of 2.7% annually to 221 kt in 2005.

In the Americas, Latin America SR use should increase at an annual rate of 3.1% to 673 kt in 2005.

Synthetic rubber consumption by region

Synthetic rubber (1)
Region                  1999    2000    2001    2005

North America          2,467   2,494   2,436   2,718
Western Europe         1,783   1,811   1,827   1,947
Asia & Oceania         1,809   1,692   1,722   1,931
Latin America            599     578     603     673
Middle East & Africa     187     193     198     221
Central Europe           285     300     313     359
Commonwealth of
  Independent States     400     415     435     550
China                    683     723     754   1,080
Total                  8,213   8,196   8,288   9,479

(1) Excludes thermoplastic elastomers (TPEs)

North American consumption should rise at an average annual rate of 1.7% to 2,718 kt in 2005, following a forecast downturn of 2.3% in 2001.

Natural rubber consumption by region

Natural rubber (1)
Region                  1999    2000    2001    2005

North America          1,257   1,343   1,243   1,353
Western Europe         1,150   1,169   1,181   1,220
Asia & Oceania         2,800   2,670   2,770   3,200
Latin America            333     374     383     432
Middle East & Africa     182     187     192     212
Central Europe           129     135     141     159
Commonwealth of
  Independent States      55      57      60      75
China                    852   1,220   1,250   1,400
Total                  6,758   7,155   7,220   8,051

(1) Excludes consumption by some producing countries

Theismann said use of all elastomer types should grow over the next five years as follows: EPR (EP(D)M) should rise 3.8% per annum to 1,042 kt in 2005; SBR to record an annual growth rate of 3% percent to 3,705 kt; NBR should post annual average increases of 2.9% to 371 kt; BR should climb an average of 2.5% to reach 2,248 kt; CR to increase at a 1.2% annual rate to 308 kt.

The IISRP also forecasts that consumption of natural rubber (NR) over the five-year term should rise 2.4% annually.

Pointing out that the IISRP views thermoplastic elastomers (TPEs) as a "below-the-line" item in its long-term forecast, Theismann said worldwide use of TPEs is expected to increase from 1,374 kt in 2000 to 1,725 kt in 2005, reflecting an average annual increase of 4.7%. In North America, TPE use should increase at an annual rate of 4.3% to 656 kt in 2005, while in Latin America consumption is expected to expand annually by 4.5% to 23 kt. In western Europe, use should grow at an annual rate of 4.1% to 458 kt in 2005, and in Asia and Oceania it should register an annual average increase of 4.7% to 220 kt by 2005. Consumption of TPEs in China should increase by 5.8% annually to 340 kt in 2005.

The annual forecast is based on worldwide industry data compiled by the Institute's regional statistical committees.