Synthetic rubber consumption up 6.4%.

Worldwide consumption of synthetic rubber (SR) increased by 6.4% in 1994, excluding the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Central Europe and CPEC Asia (China, Vietnam and North Korea). Consumption in 1995 is forecast to increase by 2.8%, according to the five-year forecast issued by the International Institute of Synthetic Rubber Producers (IISRP). Consumption in 1994 reached 9.02 million metric tons and is expected to surpass the 10 million metric ton level by 1999.

"While last year's growth rate is extraordinary, it does not tell the entire story," said Britt D. Theismann of the IISRP. "If you include the CIS, the growth was only 0.6%. The severe economic depression experienced in Russia resulted in a decrease of 50% in their demand in 1994."

Other regions experienced significant growth in 1994. Western Europe increased by 6.7% in 1994 to 2.16 million metric tons. Asia and Oceania also participated in the economic recovery, increasing 7% to 2.02 million metric tons, though most of the growth took place outside of Japan. North America increased by 5.8% to 2.93 million metric tons and Latin America (including Mexico) increased by 5.7% to 561,000 Metric tons.

"Again, excluding certain areas of the world, 1994 saw significant growth in many elastomer types." commented Theismann. "Notably, ethylene propylene rubber (EPR, both EPM and EPDM) increased by 10.8%; acrylonitrile butadiene rubber (NBR) increased by 10.7%; carboxylated SBR latex increased by 7.3%; polybutadiene rubber (BR) increased by 7.2%; and Polychloroprene rubber (CR) increased by 7%."

All geographic regions are expected to show gains in SR consumption over the coming five-year period. The Russian SR industry forecasts recovery over the period, more than doubling consumption over the 1994 level. It is expected that the current recovery in Central Europe will continue on its present track, resulting in an increase of more than 40% over 1994. Significant growth is also expected in China.

Asia and Oceania, Latin America and Western Europe are in the recovery phase of the economic cycle and should sustain growth rates of 4.2%, 3.5% and 3.0% respectively over the five-year period. "North America is much further along in the economic cycle and many analysts are forecasting an economic slowdown." said Theismann. "Our North American statistical committee is forecasting two years of economic contraction during the five-year period, resulting in an overall 1.0% rate of growth over the period."

Over the next five years, growth in consumption will vary by elastomer type. SBR is projected to represent 32% of total SR consumption in 1995 and experience a 2.9% growth rate. BR is expected to represent 18% of total SR consumption and is forecast to increase by 2.4% in 1995. NBR will represent 3% of SR consumption and is projected to increase 3.5% in 1995. Increasing by 3.6%, the highest rate among traditional thermoset rubbers, EPR is expected to represent 8% of consumption.

Over the five-year term, natural rubber should experience an annual average growth rate of 1.8%. Theismann noted, "Growth in NR consumption is expected to occur in the CIS where for geopolitical reasons SR consumption has been favored over NR. As the region trends toward a more traditional balance between NR and SR, NR should increase at an annual rate of 10 to 20%. Though we forecast NR growth in the CIS to occur, there remains a high degree of uncertainty as to the timing."

The IISRP views thermoplastic elastomers (TPEs) as a "below-the-line" item in its long term forecast. Worldwide use of TPEs is expected to increase from 823,000 metric tons in 1994 to 1.07 million metric tons in 1999, reflecting an overall increase of 31 or an annual average growth rate of 5.5%. In Latin America, TPE use is expected to expand annually by 14%. Consumption of TPEs in North America is expected to outpace traditional thermosets, increasing at a 6.7% rate to almost 500,000 metric tons. TPE consumption in Western Europe and Asia and Oceania should register annual increases of 4.4% and 3.9% respectively.

Table 1 - 1995-1999 IISRP consumption
forecast - new rubber consumption by region

Synthetic rubber(1)
Region                 1993     1994     1995     1999

North America         2,773     2,935    2,984    3,080
Western Europe        2,028     2,164    2,228    2,413
Asia & Oceania        1,888     2,020    2,105    2,443
Latin America           531       561      580      705
Middle East & Africa    120       128      133      151
Central Europe          230       250      268      351
Commonwealth of                                       1,
Independent States      944        480      850      140
China/Asia CPEC(2)      453        485      519      680
Total                 8,967      9,022    9,666   10,962

Natural Rubber (3)
Region

North America         1,058      1,106      1,111    1,103
Western Europe          845        900        930    1,010
Asia & Oceania        1,990      2,070      2,120    2,234
Latin America           247        254        260      280
Middle East & Africa    183        188        195      215
Central Europe           60         65         69       91
Commonwealth of
Independent States       50         40         50      100
China/Asia CPEC(2)      750        803        859     1,125
Total                 5,182       5,425     5,594     6,264

(1) Excludes thermoplastic elastomers
(2) Centrally planned economy countries
(3) Excludes consumption by producing countries