Switch from RSS to TSR slowing.

The 30-year trend of increasing consumption of technically specified rubber (TSR) at the expense of fibbed smoked sheets (RSS) may be at an end, according to the International Rubber Study Group. The group recently released a case study showing exports by Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia leveling off for TSR exports and an increase in shipments of RSS.

In Thailand, the top NR producing country, the proportion of RSS exports to all shipments fell during the period of 1973-2003 from 84% to 47%. During that same time, the export share of TSR increased 34% and latex increased 15%.

In Indonesia and Malaysia, the reversal was more dramatic. TSR exports in Indonesia now account for a 96% share of exports. In 1973, TSR exports represented a 41% share. In Malaysia, TSR accounts for nearly 90% of exports, while latex exports take up the majority of the rest. In 1973, 60% of Malaysian exports were ribbed smoked sheets.

The IRSG says that exports of RSS from Thailand have increased in share since a low of 42.6% in 2001, indicating the shift from RSS to TSR reached its maximum point. The group said this may be partly due to the fact that most natural rubber in Thailand is produced by smallholders.

By using import statistics from the major consuming countries, the IRSG says TSR accounts for over 50% of the share, while the proportion of RSS is at 25% and latex at 7%.

North America has the largest percentage of TSR imports, accounting for 73% of the total. Latin America and Western Europe are near a 37% share, while the share of TSR of all imports in Asia stands close to 45%.

The largest portion of RSS in all imports is in Asia at 37%, while the highest share of other imports of NR is in Latin America at 36%. The IRSG noted that a fair portion of block rubber imports in Brazil is classified as other NR imports according to customs data.

Imports of NR by type--2002 ('000 mt)

                   Latex       RSS        TSR     Other

Canada              3.7       15.4       96.1     39.6
U.S.A.            118.6      134.5      844.5     29.1
Argentina           1.4        0.3       23.1      0.9
Brazil             13.1       37.3        0.2     93.6
Colombia            3.7          0       12.2      3.2
Mexico             16.4        2.2       47.6      0.3
Venezuela           0.2          0       15.9      0.1
Austria             3.1        0.4       22.2      2.5
Finland             0.3        0.2       23.2      1.4
France              4.9       75.1        127     46.5
Germany            20.7       57.5       64.3      123
Netherlands         4.2        0.1        8.7     12.4
Poland              2.2        2.6       55.2      5.2
Portugal            2.7        0.1       11.8      1.9
Spain               7.3       74.3       18.8     85.6
U.K.               19.1        0.2       23.7     50.3
South Africa        3.7        0.4       59.7      2.1
Turkey              9.7       26.9       57.3      1.2
China              59.5      396.1      385.2     75.2
Japan               6.9      343.5      351.2     75.8
Rep. of Korea      24.8       34.6      205.4       59
Taiwan             10.3       13.6        1.5     85.3
Others             13.4       27.2        117      3.4
Total world       336.1    1,215.4    2,454.7    794.2

Source: IRSG

Distribution of NR consumption 2003

Asia          57%
N. America    16%
L. America     6%
EU            15%
O. Europe      4%
Africa         2%

Note: Table made from pie chart.