Swine flu 'could kill 65,000 this winter'.

Summary: Up to 65,000 people in the UK could die after contracting swine flu this winter, the Government has warned.

Up to 65,000 people in the UK could die after contracting swine flu this winter, the Government has warned.

It made the announcement after confirming that 29 people in the UK - 26 in England and three in Scotland - have already died after getting the virus.

Chief Medical Officer for England, Sir Liam Donaldson, said figures being used by the NHS to plan its services show that a 30 per cent infection rate among the population could possibly lead to 65,000 deaths.

However, he said 19,000 could occur as estimates vary depending on the numbers who end up infected.

Sir Liam said a National Pandemic Flu Service for England should be up and running towards the end of next week.

The telephone and internet-based service will enable people to get a diagnosis and obtain a unique reference number which gives them access to Tamiflu.

A "flu friend" can then use the number to obtain the antiviral from a depot around the country and take it to the patient.

Sir Liam said the aim of the new flu service was to alleviate pressure on hospitals and GP services, enabling them to look after the "most seriously ill".

Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales have not yet implemented similar services but could do so in future if pressure on their health services continues to rise.

NHS South East Coast said it is investigating a case but could not confirm whether it was that of an apparently healthy six-year-old boy, who according to some reports died on Wednesday after contracting the virus.

The Health Protection Agency (HPA) estimates there were 55,000 new cases of swine flu in England in the last week, including people visiting GPs and those who are looking after themselves at home.

Up to 85,000 people could be currently affected, the HPA modelling shows.

The numbers being treated in English hospitals have doubled in one week to 652, of which 53 are in intensive care.

The highest number of hospitalisations (354) are among those aged 16 to 64, followed by under fives (134) and those aged five to 15 (84).

Cherie Blair, the wife of former prime minister Tony Blair, has pulled out of a series of public engagements while she battles the virus.

Sir Liam said there was now "exceptional influenza activity" across most of the country except Yorkshire and the Humber.

The first deliveries of vaccines in August would not be enough to cover everybody in the high risk groups, Sir Liam said but he added that everybody in these groups would be able to get a vaccine as the UK moved deeper into winter.

Independent Television News Limited 2009. All rights reserved.

Independent Television News Limited 2009. All rights reserved.

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