Swine flu: the second wave; PANDEMIC UPDATE: Virus not as widespread as predicted.

Byline: MARTIN WILLIAMS 

REDUCE THE CHANCE OF CATCHING IT PRACTISING good respiratory and hand hygiene will reduce the chance of catching or spreading viruses.

For the vast majority of healthy people, the infection remains mild and should people have flu-like symptoms, they should stay at home, rest, have plenty of fluids and take paracetamol.

"As the number of swine flu cases rise, the number of people experiencing severe symptoms or complications or even death will inevitably increase," said Kate Parry.

"This is the same for seasonal flu in the winter. People in a priority group - pregnant women, people with chronic conditions and those with weakened immune systems or household contacts of people with weakened immune systems - will be invited by their GPs to receive the swine flu vaccination as they are most at risk of complications of flu.

"The swine flu vaccine is the simplest and most effective way of protecting people's health and will help in our efforts to minimise its impact on individuals and communities."

The main indicator of flu is a high temperature, of over 38C, combined with two or more of the following symptoms - sudden fever, cough, headache, chills, aching muscles or limb or joint pain, diarrhoea or stomach upset, sore throat, loss of appetite or runny nose.. For more details, call the Swine Flu Information Line on 0800 1 513 513 or visit the NHS Direct Wales website at www.nhsdirect.wales.nhs.uk.

HEALTH chiefs say the second wave of swine flu in North Wales is not affecting as many people as they initially feared The National Public Health Service estimated in September 170,000 people in this region were likely to contract the illness. At its highest point - around five weeks into the wave - health bosses said 55,000 people a week would get swine flu, but that appears to now be far lower.

Newly released figures show 47.5 cases of a flu-like illness diagnosed by GPs out of every 100,000 people in Wales - the equivalent of 1,425 people in Wales contacting their GPs. Locally it ranges from 21.1 per 100,000 people in Anglesey to 84.2 per 100,000 people in Pembrokeshire.

As at midday on November 11, there were 522 laboratory confirmed cases of swine flu in Wales since the start of the outbreak. Of these 327 have been admitted to hospital.

However, not all of these people will have swine flu and not everyone with flu like symptoms will contact their GP, according to Betsi Cadwaladr Corporate Services Manager, Kate Parry.

Mrs Parry was brought in to coordinate the Llanfairfechan-based Health Emergency Control Centre (HECC). She said: "The worst-case clinical attack rate across the population as a whole has now been reduced from 30% to 12% between now and the end of the normal flu season.

"For the vast majority the virus will be mild and most people will recover within five to seven days. It is important to stress that the planning assumptions are a reasonable worst case scenario on which to plan for the period up to mid May 2010.

"They are not a prediction of whatweexpect to see. Thisnew information will be used to help the NHS, local planners and businesses to prepare. These new planning assumptions also do not take account of the vaccination programme which is underway. Clearly the vaccine will help to reduce the number of people needing hospitalisation."

"All community pharmacists, dispensing doctors and out of hours services in North Wales have stocks of anti-virals, and the three hospital pharmacy departments are also holding stock.

"In line with the rest of the UK - we are receiving batches of the vaccine on a weekly basis and those people in the priority groups will be invited for their vaccination."

The NHS had envisaged school and leisure centre closures, as well as the cancellation of hospital operations, football matches and mass gatherings as the outbreak peaked, but said this will no longer be the case.

"This would be a matter for individual local organisations to consider, in consultation with local health protection officials," added Mrs Parry.

She confirmed wards have been set aside at Ysbyty Glan Clwyd in Bodelwyddan, Ysbyty Gwynedd in Bangor and Wrexham Maelor to care for those suffering serious cases.

"Comprehensive plans are in place to deal with an increased number of patients but the current situation remains calm with all North Wales hospitals at the lowest level of alert," said Mrs Parry.

"The numbers of people requiring hospital admission as a result of swine flu have not reached the levels needed to trigger the opening of special wards."

Despite the problem being far less serious than the NHS predicted, the HECC is still operational.

"The HECC still has weekly meetings of operational officers from across NorthWales. Existing staff from within the Betsi Cadwaladr University Local Health Board and its partner organisations have taken on a variety of responsibilities to support the work of the HECC, alongside their core roles," said Mrs Parry.

However, this wave still expected to be worse than the first.

"We must not be complacent.

The rate of infection could increase again. We have been planning for a pandemic for some time and are prepared, though the latest figures show the number of people contacting their GP with flu symptoms has stalled," she said.

"This may be due to the half-term break, similar to the effect seen over this year's summer holidays. It is too early to say whether this changing trend means the rate of consultations has peaked."

"We want to praise NHS staff for their efforts so far in managing the pandemic.We know they have worked extremely hard and will continue to do so as the number of cases increases," she added.

CAPTION(S):

Kate Parry The expected Autumn surge in swine flu has, so far, failed to materialise