Supply shortage forecast for flaskless molded iron castings by 2007: by analyzing specific market sectors, a potential shortage of capacity is forecast fo ductile and gray iron castings made on vertically and horizontally parted molding machines.Increases in imports and the closing of casting operations in the U.S. has led to reduced casting capacities. As a result, supply shortages are forecast for gray and ductile iron Ductile iron, also called ductile cast iron or nodular cast iron, is a type of cast iron invented in 1943 by Keith Millis[1]. While most varieties of cast iron are brittle, ductile iron is much more ductile, as the name implies. castings in specific market sectors. In order to shed shed rural building used for agricultural pursuits. shed hands miscellaneous workers in a shearing shed at shearing time, i.e. persons other than the shearers, wool classers. some light on this potential problem and determine the need for capacity in these sectors of the metalcasting industry, this article provides an in depth analysis of the demand and supply of engineered gray and ductile iron castings in the U.S. by the four basic molding molding, in architecture, furniture, and decorative objects, a surface or group of surfaces of projecting or receding contours. A molding may serve as a defining element, terminating a unit or an entire composition (e.g. processes--vertically parted, horizontally hor·i·zon·tal adj. 1. Of, relating to, or near the horizon. 2. a. Parallel to or in the plane of the horizon. b. At right angles to a vertical line. 3. parted, cope and drag In foundry work, the terms Cope and Drag refer to the upper and lower parts of a two-part casting flask, used in sand casting. The flask is a wood or metal frame, which contains the molding sand, providing support to the sand as the metal is poured into the mold. , and floor molding: * Vertically parted molding machines--primarily Disamatic machines but also include other makes; * Horizontally parted matchplate molding machines--primarily Hunter Hun·ter , John 1728-1793. British surgeon who founded pathological anatomy in England. hunter a horse used for hunting. , Match-Blomatic, Roberts Sinto Sin´to 1. See Shinto, etc. , Disa matchplate and other machines using the jolt squeeze Squeeze 1. In financial terms, a period of time when borrowing is difficult. 2. In general business terms, times when increasing costs cannot be passed onto consumers. The decrease in profits is said to be caused by a "squeeze" on profit margins. processes; * Cope and drag tight flask flask (flask) 1. a laboratory vessel, usually of glass and with a constricted neck. 2. a metal case in which materials used in making artificial dentures are placed for processing. molding machines--include jolt ram and jolt rollovers as well as impact molded mold 1 n. 1. A hollow form or matrix for shaping a fluid or plastic substance. 2. A frame or model around or on which something is formed or shaped. 3. Something that is made in or shaped on a mold. machines; * Floor molding--uses the nobake, chemically-bonded and green sand processes to produce castings greater than 300 lbs. (136 kg). The lost foam and pit molded process castings are included in this category. Tables 1 and 2 summarize sum·ma·rize intr. & tr.v. sum·ma·rized, sum·ma·riz·ing, sum·ma·riz·es To make a summary or make a summary of. sum this analysis for each market sector. GRAY IRON Vertically Parted Molding Machines (Woodworking) A planing machine for making moldings (Founding) A machine to assist in making molds for castings. See also: Molding Molding The forecasted 2005 demand for gray iron castings is 1.56 million tons (Transparent Optical Networking Services) A marketing term for providing dark fiber to a customer. The customer is responsible for generating the transmission signal and interpreting it at the other end. See dark fiber. and is expected to increase to 1.67 million by 2007. The forecasted demand/supply conditions for 2005 also indicate 81% utilization utilization, n 1. the extent to which a given group uses a particular service in a specified period. Although usually expressed as the number of services used per year per 100 or per 1000 persons eligible for the service, utilization rates may be and 205,000 tons of surplus supply. Shortages of gray iron supply of castings produced by vertically parted molding are expected in late 2005 and 2006, as the impact of plant closings felt in the marketplace cause a drop in capacity by 250,000 tons. New generation machines are estimated to increase capacity by 70,000 tons, however; leaving a net loss at 180,000 tons of domestic capacity. New capacity of 219,000 tons is needs to be added by 2007 to ensure utilization of 84% and a demand/supply ratio of 0.92. Other benefits of the new generation of vertically parted molding equipment include the capability to produce more molds per hour at reduced casting costs. The expectations of this new equipment include achieving maximum productivity and maintaining competitiveness against foreign competition. Table 3 provides a breakdown breakdown /break·down/ (brak´doun) 1. the act or process of ceasing to function. 2. an often sudden collapse in health. 3. loss of self-control. of the demand and supply conditions for gray iron castings. The total demand for all gray iron castings is forecast to decline in the long term at an annual rate of 0.5%. In particular, the gray iron consumption in the light vehicle automotive industry The automotive industry is the industry involved in the design, development, manufacture, marketing, and sale of motor vehicles. In 2006, more than 69 million motor vehicles, including cars and commercial vehicles were produced worldwide. is forecast to decline 1.9% per year, based on the expected conversion of engine blocks and heads and other castings to aluminum; however, a potential gain in casting demand is forecast for brake casting applications in the short and long term. The estimated 1.77 million tons of supply in 2005 is forecast to drop to 1.59 million tons without new capacity, therefore 219,000 tons of new capacity is needed to bring supply to 1.81 million tons. Other forecasts for gray iron castings made on vertically parted machines include: * 1.01 million tons of gray iron castings for light vehicles will be in demand in 2005, followed by an expected increase of 8% to 1.09 million tons in 2007; * light vehicle production in the U.S. is expected to grow at an average annual growth rate of 1%, therefore increasing demand for vertically parted machine castings; * 2005 imports of 347,000 tons of gray iron castings normally produced in vertically parted machines are expected to rise to 400,000 tons by 2007. Horizontally Parted Matchplate Molding Machines The forecast of demand for gray iron castings produced on horizontally parted matchplate machines reached 982,000 tons in 2005, with an expected increase to 1.02 million tons in 2007. Part of this growth spurt growth spurt Pediatrics A period of rapid growth in middle adolescence; ♀ ↑ ±8 cm/yr ±age 12; ♂ ↑ ±10 cm/yr ± age 14; GS is orderly, affecting acral parts–ie, hands and feet grow before proximal regions, was due to a conversion from normal jolt squeeze machines to automatic matchplate molding machines, which helped reduce costs and improve productivity. The shortage dilemma Dilemma Buridan’s ass placed exactly between two equal haystacks, could not decide which to turn to in his hunger. [Fr. Philos.: Brewer Dictionary, 154] surrounds the expected plant closings, which will reduce overall supply capacity from 1.23 million tons to 1.17 million tons and cause the surplus in supply to drop to 155,000 tons. Other forecasts for gray iron castings made on horizontally parted matchplate machines include: * 94,000 tons are to be consumed con·sume v. con·sumed, con·sum·ing, con·sumes v.tr. 1. To take in as food; eat or drink up. See Synonyms at eat. 2. a. in pump and hydraulic casting applications in 2005 with a growth to 100,000 tons by 2007; * the demand for mold mold, name for certain multicellular organisms of the various classes of the kingdom Fungi, characteristically having bodies composed of a cottony mycelium. The colors of molds are caused by the spores, which are borne on the mycelium. castings produced on horizontally parted machines for internal combustion engines Internal combustion engine A prime mover, the fuel for which is burned within the engine, as contrasted to a steam engine, for example, in which fuel is burned in a separate furnace. is forecast at 166,000 tons in 2005; however, imports are high in this market sector for all molding categories and are forecast to increase from 216,000 tons in 2005 to 270,000 tons in 2007; * farm equipment and accessories are expected to consume 127,000 tons; * domestic utilization is estimated to rise from 72% in 2005 to 78% in 2007. Cope and Drag Tight Flask Molding Machines The demand for gray iron castings produced by cope and drag tight flask molding machines is forecast at 1.36 million tons in 2005 followed by losses to 1.34 million in 2007. The lack of growth is evidence of the loss of 80,000 tons in demand for gray iron engine blocks converted to aluminum. It appears the largest forecasted growth is in the construction, mining, oil field and material handling equipment market sectors in which forecasts point out that 147,000 tons of demand will grow to 152,000 tons in 2007. Another increasing demand is for brake castings for medium to heavy trucks, which is expected to reach 84,000 tons in 2007. The supply capacity for this sector is expected to decline 80,000 tons based on expected plant closings. Other forecasts for cope and drag tight flask gray iron casting include: * the demand for diesel engine castings will grow from 245,000 to 280,000 by 2007, with more than 50% to be supplied through imports; * imports led by engine blocks and heads from Brazil Brazil (brəzĭl`), Port. Brasil, officially Federative Republic of Brazil, republic (2005 est. pop. 186,113,000), 3,286,470 sq mi (8,511,965 sq km), E South America. and Mexico Mexico, city, Mexico Mexico or Mexico City, Span. Ciudad de México (Méjico), city (1990 pop. 8,236,960; 1991 met. area est. 20,899,000), central Mexico, capital and largest city of Mexico. are forecast to rise from 325,000 to 336,000 tons/yr; * because supply is forecast to drop to 1.52 million tons, utilization of 74% is forecast for 2007. Floor Molding The demand for floor molded gray iron castings in 2005 is forecast at 700,000 tons followed by a projected growth of 33,000 tons for 2007. The largest market for this sector is the diesel engine category, which is dominated dom·i·nate v. dom·i·nat·ed, dom·i·nat·ing, dom·i·nates v.tr. 1. To control, govern, or rule by superior authority or power: by captive captive said of naturally wild or feral animals kept in captivity for educational and scientific investigation with no attempt being made to domesticate them. metalcasting facilities such as Caterpillar caterpillar (kăt`əpĭl'ər, kăt`ər–), common name for the larva of a moth or butterfly. Caterpillars have distinct heads and are segmented and wormlike. and John Deere, whose forecast demand for 2005 is 205,000 tons followed by growth to 225,000 by 2007. The combined total forecast for the construction, mining, oil field and material handling equipment sectors is 104,000 tons in 2005 with an expected growth of 108,000 tons. Other forecasts for floor molded gray iron casting include: * demand for gray iron in machine tools, which was over 100,000 tons in the past is settling in the 36,000 tons/ yr. range; * a very low utilization in 2005 is expected to rise to 77% as supply capacity decreases; * imports are forecast to rise to 178,000 tons in 2007. DUCTILE IRON Vertically Parted Molding machines The forecasted 2005 market for ductile iron castings made on vertically parted machines is 1.51 million tons with an estimated growth to 1.55 million tons for 2007. The 2005 forecast for demand/supply conditions indicates a 0.88 ratio and 213,000 tons of surplus supply; however, the plant closings in the second half of 2005 are expected to reduce the surplus. Consequently, plant closings in 2005 and 2006 are estimated to lower capacity by 150,000 tons thus hindering hin·der 1 v. hin·dered, hin·der·ing, hin·ders v.tr. 1. To be or get in the way of. 2. To obstruct or delay the progress of. v.intr. the supply by 2007. It is estimated that to meet the demand/supply ratio of 0.88 in 2007, a total of 95,000 tons of new capacity increase is required. Table 4 provides a breakdown of demand and supply conditions for ductile iron casting. New generation machines in operation are expected to increase capacity by 90,000 tons, therefore leaving a net loss of 60,000 tons of domestic capacity. These new molding machines, which have the capabilities to produce more tons per hour and lower manhours per ton, are required to meet domestic capacity requirements and maintain competitiveness. The acceptance of aluminum in suspension suspension, in vehicles suspension, in automobiles, system of springs used to suspend the frame, body, engine, and power train above the wheels. Its principal purpose is to lessen the jarring of the automobile that is caused by irregularities in the roads and other castings is expected to cause significant erosion erosion (ĭrō`zhən), general term for the processes by which the surface of the earth is constantly being worn away. The principal agents are gravity, running water, near-shore waves, ice (mostly glaciers), and wind. in the demand for ductile iron castings. Usage is being accelerated in Japan, Europe Europe (y  r`əp), 6th largest continent, c.4,000,000 sq mi (10,360,000 sq km) including adjacent islands (1992 est. pop. 512,000,000). and the U.S. (See
Table 5)Despite the loss of casting demand to aluminum, it is forecasted that shipments of ductile iron castings made on vertically parted machines will continue to grow 38,000 tons by 2007. The continued conversion of malleable iron (Metal.) iron sufficiently pure or soft to be capable of extension under the hammer; also, specif., a kind of iron produced by removing a portion of the carbon or other impurities from cast iron, rendering it less brittle, and to some extent malleable. automotive and electrical and plumbing plumbing, piping systems inside buildings for water supply and sewage. The Romans had a highly developed plumbing system; water was brought to Rome by aqueducts and distributed to homes in lead pipes—hence the name plumbing from the Latin word plumbum fitting castings can increase demand past 50,000 tons by 2007. Based on an analysis of all the ductile iron casting suppliers, 1.73 million tons of casting supply is estimated for 2005. Other forecasts for vertically parted ductile iron castings made on vertically parted machines include: * 1112 million tons are to be consumed in light vehicles and 122,000 tons in medium to heavy trucks; * domestic utilization for U.S. metalcasting facilities is forecast at 82%; * imports of 226,000 tons of ductile iron castings will increase to 260,000 tons by 2007. Horizontally Parted Matchplate Molding Machines The forecast of demand for ductile iron castings made from horizontally parted matchplate molding machines is estimated at 510,000 tons in 2005, with an anticipated growth to 557,000 tons in 2007. Predictions also reveal that 114,000 tons are to be consumed by manufacturers of construction, mining, oil field and material handling equipment in 2005, with an estimated increase to 122,000 tons in 2007. Supply capacity is expected to decrease by more than 50,000 tons due to plant closings, therefore requiring the new capacity to meet the supply of 640,000 tons and utilization of 83%. Low production jolt-squeeze molding is being replaced by more efficient automatic matchplate molding to improve productivity, quality and competitiveness. Other forecasts for horizontally parted matchplate ductile iron casting include: * demand of 54,000 tons for valve and fitting applications along with a growth in demand in light vehicles from 73,000 tons in 2005 to 76,000 tons in 2007; * domestic utilization at 75% for 2005; * the surplus of supply to drop to 83,000 tons; * imports to increase from 77,000 tons to 90,000 tons. Cope & Drag drag Force exerted by a fluid stream on any obstacle in its path or felt by an object moving through a fluid. Its magnitude and how it may be reduced are important to designers of moving vehicles, ships, suspension bridges, cooling towers, and other structures. Tight Flask Molding Machines The demand for cope and drag tight flask molded ductile iron castings is forecast at 463,000 tons in 2005 with a growth of 40,000 tons by 2007. Areas of demand include ductile iron in medium to heavy trucks, which are expected to grow from 61,000 tons to 75,000 tons in 2007, and ductile iron castings in construction, oil field and material-handling equipment, which are forecast at 88,000 tons in 2005. Other forecasts for cope and drag tight flask ductile iron casting include: * valves and fittings fit·ting adj. Being in keeping with a situation; appropriate. n. 1. The act of trying on clothes whose fit is being adjusted. 2. A small detachable part for a machine or apparatus. 3. made on this type of equipment to rise from 84,000 tons to 89,000 tons; * domestic utilization to rise from 77% in 2005 to 85% by 2007; * imports to grow to 20% of demand (100,000 tons). Floor Molding The casting demand for floor molded ductile iron castings in 2005 is estimated at 198,000 tons with expected growth to 209,000 tons in 2007. The construction, oil field and material handling market sectors continue to be the largest demand at nearly 55,000 tons per year. Other growth areas include plastic machinery and other product segments in the special industry machine category, which are forecast to propel pro·pel tr.v. pro·pelled, pro·pel·ling, pro·pels To cause to move forward or onward. See Synonyms at push. [Middle English propellen, from Latin demand by 26,000 tons in 2007. Other forecasts for floor molding ductile iron casting include: * valve castings to grow to 46,000 tons, as ductile iron replaces gray iron; * utilization to grow from the lows of 2002 and 2003 to 85% by 2007 as supply continues to decrease in the U.S. to 240,000 tons. For more information "11% Growth Forecast for Next 4 Years, Led by Aluminum Ductile Iron," K.H. Kirgin, MODERN CASTING, January January: see month. 2005, p. 22-27. Kenneth H. Kirgin, Stratecasts Inc., Fort Myers, Florida Fort Myers is the county seatGR6 and commercial center of Lee County, Florida. The population was 48,208 at the 2000 census. According to the 2006 U.S. Census Bureau's Estimates, the city had a population of 60,531. A 50-year metalcasting industry veteran, Kenneth Kirgin founded Stratecasts in the early 1980s to provide domestic and international forecasting and trends analysis and strategic planning Strategic planning is an organization's process of defining its strategy, or direction, and making decisions on allocating its resources to pursue this strategy, including its capital and people. .
Table 1. Forecast of Gray Iron Engineered Casting (*) Demand
in 2005 & 2007 by Molding Categories (000 Tons)
Total
Market Demand (**) VP
'05 '07 '05 '07
Sanitary & Radiator 230 213 20 18
Valves & Fittings 334 348 81 84
Internal Comb. Mach. 700 754 84 77
Farm Equipment 319 341 50 52
Construction, Mining,
Oil Field & Handling 391 405 60 62
Metalworking Mach. 107 103 8 8
Special Ind. Mach. 219 231 22 23
Pumps/Compressors 250 266 22 23
Gears/Power Trans. 116 120 26 27
Refrigeration/AC 123 129 24 24
Electrical Mach. 61 58 15 14
Household Appliance 46 43 25 24
Light Vehicle 1,316 1,355 1,006 1,091
Med/Hvy Truck 217 247 120 140
Railroad 12 14 2 2
Other 153 133 1 1
TOTAL 4,604 4,760 1,566 1,670
Market HP CD Floor
'05 '07 '05 '07 '05 '07
Sanitary & Radiator 88 82 70 65 52 48
Valves & Fittings 88 92 107 112 58 60
Internal Comb. Mach. 166 172 245 280 205 225
Farm Equipment 127 132 98 102 54 55
Construction, Mining,
Oil Field & Handling 80 83 147 152 104 108
Metalworking Mach. 32 33 30 26 37 36
Special Ind. Mach. 76 80 59 64 62 64
Pumps/Compressors 94 100 66 70 68 73
Gears/Power Trans. 29 30 32 32 29 31
Refrigeration/AC 75 78 24 27 -- --
Electrical Mach. 16 14 19 18 13 12
Household Appliance 21 19 -- -- -- --
Light Vehicle 40 44 270 220 -- --
Med/Hvy Truck 20 23 77 84 -- --
Railroad 10 12 -- -- -- --
Other 20 21 112 90 20 21
TOTAL 982 1,015 1,356 1,342 700 733
(*) Engineered castings do not include municipal, ingot mold,
soil pipe or pressure pipe castings.
(**) Demand = Shipments + Imports - Exports
VP--Vertically parted molding
HP--Horizontally parted molding
CD--Cope & drag molding
Table 2. Forecast of Ductile Iron Engineered Casting Demand in
2005 & 2007 by Molding Categories (000 tons)
Total
Market Demand (**) VP
'05 '07 '05 '07
Valves & Fittings 263 275 80 83
Internal Comb. Mach. 91 97 32 33
Farm Equipment 128 138 22 24
Construction, Mining,
Oil Field & Hand. Eq. 298 318 42 45
Metalworking Mach. 46 45 7 7
Special Ind Mach. 106 116 20 21
Pump/Compressor 93 101 13 14
Gears/Power trans. 32 34 11 11
Refrigeration/AC 47 51 17 18
Electrical Mach. 19 19 10 10
Light Vehicle 1,248 1,264 1,116 1,125
Med/Hvy Truck 257 304 122 140
Railroad 11 12 5 5
Other 44 45 15 14
TOTAL 2,683 2,819 1,512 1,550
Market HP CD Floor
'05 '07 '05 '07 '05 '07
Valves & Fittings 54 57 84 89 45 46
Internal Comb. Mach. 16 18 34 36 9 10
Farm Equipment 46 50 33 35 27 29
Construction, Mining,
Oil Field & Hand. Eq. 114 122 88 94 54 57
Metalworking Mach. 14 14 13 13 12 11
Special Ind Mach. 32 37 30 32 24 26
Pump/Compressor 37 40 26 28 17 19
Gears/Power trans. 9 10 10 11 2 2
Refrigeration/AC 23 25 7 8 -- --
Electrical Mach. 5 5 3 3 1 1
Light Vehicle 73 76 59 63 -- --
Med/Hvy Truck 70 84 61 75 4 5
Railroad 4 5 2 2 -- --
Other 13 14 13 14 3 3
TOTAL 510 557 463 503 198 209
VP--Vertically parted molding
HP--Horizontally parted molding
CD--Cope & drag molding
Table 3. Forecast of Demand & Supply Conditions For Gray Iron
Engineered Castings Made by the Four Molding Processes (000 Tons)
VP HP
2005 2007 2005 2007
Demand 1,566 1,670 982 1,015
Supply 1,771 1,900 1,230 1,170
Surplus 205 230 246 155
Shipments 1,426 1,520 884 914
Utilization 81% 80% 72% 78%
D/S 0.80 0.88 0.80 0.80
Imports 347 400 216 270
CD Floor
2005 2007 2005 2007
Demand 1,356 1,342 700 733
Supply 1,600 1,520 900 860
Surplus 244 178 200 127
Shipments 1,150 1,120 630 660
Utilization 72% 74% 70% 77%
D/S 0.85 0.88 0.78 0.85
Imports 325 336 170 178
VP--Vertically parted molding
HP--Horizontally parted molding
CD--Cope & drag molding
Table 4. Forecast of Demand & Supply Conditions for Ductile Iron
Engineered Castings Made by the Four Molding Processes (000 Tons)
VP HP
2005 2007 2005 2007
Demand 1,512 1,550 510 557
Supply 1,725 1,760 650 640
Surplus 213 210 140 83
Shipments 1,415 1,450 485 528
Utilization 82% 82% 75% 83%
D/S 0.88 0.88 0.79 0.87
Imports 226 260 77 90
CD Floor
2005 2007 2005 2007
Demand 463 484 198 209
Supply 560 550 270 240
Surplus 97 47 72 31
Shipments 430 468 194 203
Utilization 77% 85% 72% 85%
D/S 0.83 0.90 0.73 0.87
Imports 93 100 30 31
VP--Vertically parted molding
HP--Horizontally parted molding
CD--Cope & drag molding
Table 5. Replacement and Usage Forecast For Ductile Iron
% Usage of Cast
Materials in
Light Vehicles
2005 2006 2009
Suspension Parts (knuckles, Ductile Iron 45% 40% 30%
control arms, etc.) Steel 25% 25% 20%
Aluminum 30% 35% 50%
Differential Carriers/Cases Ductile Iron 40% 30% 20%
Aluminum 30% 40% 50%
Not Cast 30% 30% 30%
Brake Calipers Ductile Iron 96% 94% 90%
Aluminum 4% 6% 10%
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