Sunrise for hunters.

Byline: Mike Stahlberg The Register-Guard

Blacktail deer aside, hunting should be pretty good this fall for just about every species of game animal found in Northwest Oregon, according to the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife's 2004 Fall Hunting Forecast.

Northwest elk hunters should expect "an above average year," the forecast says, while bear, upland game birds and waterfowl are also expected to be more plentiful in the region than normal.

Prospects for blacktail deer hunting, however, continue in a downward direction with which hunters have become all too familiar over the past half-dozen years, according to the 25-page report based on field reports from state wildlife biologists.

The 2004 big game hunting season got off to a quiet start Aug. 28 with the opening of the statewide archery hunts for deer and elk. Bowhunters in much of the state were greeted with better stalking conditions than had been seen for several years, thanks to some heavy late-summer rains that settled dust and quieted the woods.

Continued cool and damp weather means forest conditions should also be favorable when the statewide rifle deer season opens Oct. 2.

But the rifle hunt is likely to open with more of a whimper than a bang in Western Oregon, as the number of blacktail deer available continues to fall below what hunters have become accustomed to.

"Success rates have been declining in recent years, and we expect lower than the long-term average success again this year," said Bill Castillo, the ODFW district wildlife biologist in Springfield. "The deer situation is still pretty poor because of the hair loss syndrome and endovirus problems we're seeing."

Sooner or later, Castillo said, hunter success rates will begin to rebound in response to the sharp reductions that have been made in the number of antlerless deer tags issued. But he's not sure when the situation will bottom out.

"At some point, success rates start going back up," he said. "We're not sure it will be this year - it might be another year or two off."

Meanwhile, persistent and dedicated hunters have some cause for optimism.

More rain, in addition to making it easier for hunters to move quietly through the woods, would "contribute to an early fall green-up, which tends to move animals out into clear-cuts," Castillo said. Good forage conditions would also help over-winter survival and fawn production rates.

Also, there's been "a big drop in the number of hunters hunting the general season," Castillo said, meaning less competition for the available animals.

"And when deer feel less hunting pressure, they get less wary and hunter success starts to come back," he said.

Hunters are apt to find a relatively high percentage of bucks among the deer they do locate this season.

Castillo and biologists in several other Northwest Oregon units say buck ratios are generally good, due to the fact that very dry weather throughout the 2003 season helped so many bucks escape hunters last fall.

Some portions of Northwest Oregon are expected to be more productive for buck hunters than others. The Wilson Unit on the north coast, for example, had "excellent buck escapement" last year and should provide "good hunting" this fall.

Meanwhile, it looked like a population rebound might have started last year on the Alsea Unit in the Oregon Coast range, where "a slight upturn" in the deer harvest was recorded in spite of the dry conditions. However, a poor fawn crop in 2003 almost certainly means the Alsea Unit harvest will decline again this fall.

In the hunt management units closest to Eugene, "below average" deer hunting is forecast for the Willamette and Santiam units. The agricultural fringe lands of the Willamette Unit have been among the hardest hit by deer hair loss syndrome, an often-fatal disease that continues to baffle wildlife scientists.

In the Indigo and McKenzie units, the ODFW report says, deer population levels "appear to have declined slightly in the last few years because of both habitat changes and disease problems. ... Some localized areas have seen significant population declines."

But deer hunters lucky enough to draw controlled hunt tags in the High Desert region of Central Oregon will find average or better numbers of mule deer in most units there. Mule deer numbers in the northeast Oregon region, however, are said to be "below average."

Elk hunters, meanwhile, have plenty to look forward to. The Fall Hunting Forecast says elk numbers are "better than average" in the northwest, southwest and High Desert regions. Only in Northeast Oregon are the elk counts down, due mostly to calf survival problems in recent years.

Roosevelt elk populations and bull ratios are at or above management target levels in all Northwest units, except for the Siuslaw. High road densities - leaving elk few places to hide - and poaching are the primary problems in that area south and west of Eugene.

Overall, elk populations in this area are probably going to decline over the long haul, Castillo said.

"We feel like elk populations in this area, at least in Cascades, have peaked and probably will start to decline a little," he said. "Part of that is again due to less open area and the reduction of forage that comes from having fewer clear-cuts. That is having an impact on both deer and elk."

Another game animal population that is in solid shape statewide is the black bear.

Bear hunting prospects are "better than average" in the Northwest and Northeast regions and average in the Southwest and High Desert.

In the Northwest, successful bear hunters will again be required to turn in to the ODFW a premolar tooth from all black bears harvested, and the reproductive tract from female bears. Only the tooth is required in the Southwest region.

Bird hunting, meanwhile is expected to be above average in Northwest Oregon for upland game birds and "average to better than average" for waterfowl, the Hunting Forecast says.

Grouse and mountain quail remain "an underutilized resource" in Western Oregon, Castillo said, mostly because they are difficult to hunt.

In an effort to get better information about grouse populations, the ODFW is again collecting wings of blue and ruffed grouse harvested throughout the state. Contact any ODFW office for details.

Duck and goose hunting should be good in Northwest Oregon, as strong fall flight forecasts - combined with expanding resident waterfowl populations - led waterfowl managers to again provide the liberal season lengths and bag limits, except for restrictions on pintails, hen mallards, redhead, scaup and canvasback ducks.

For a copy of the complete 2004 Fall Hunting Forecast, log on to: www.dfw.state.or.us/public/NewsArc/2004news/sept/090704news.html.

A HUNTER'S DAYBOOK

There are dozens of key dates for Oregon hunters to keep track of during the last three months of 2004. Here's a handy listing:

Sept. 26: Last day of early deer and elk archery seasons.

Oct. 1: Last day to purchase deer, bear and cougar tags.

Oct. 2: Statewide deer rifle season opens.

Oct. 9: Opening day for duck season in Zone 2 and for chukar, Hungarian partridge, Eastern Oregon valley quail, and mountain quail seasons in Klamath and Wallowa counties.

Oct. 13: Last day of mule deer rifle season.

Oct. 15: Deadline to buy elk tags for Cascade and Wilson/Trask units; fall turkey season controlled hunts begin.

Oct. 16: Opening day of duck season in Zone 1, pheasant season statewide, and valley quail season in Western Oregon. Also, rifle season begins in Cascade and Wilson/Trask units.

Oct. 20: Rifle season closes in Wilson/Trask units.

Oct. 21: Deer rifle season reopens in the Wilson/Trask Units.

Oct. 22: Last day of Cascade elk rifle season.

Oct. 23: Deer rifle season reopens in Cascades.

Oct. 26: Deadline to buy tags for first period Rocky Mountain elk season.

Oct. 27: First period of Rocky Mountain elk season begins.

Oct. 31: First period Rocky Mountain elk season ends.

Nov. 5: Western Oregon deer rifle season closes; last day to buy tags for second period Rocky Mountain elk season.

Nov. 6: Opening day of late deer bow season in Southwest Oregon and of second period Rocky Mountain elk season.

Nov. 12: Deadline for purchase of Mid-Coast Valley rifle elk season tags.

Nov. 13: Mid-Coast Valley rifle elk season opens.

Nov. 14: Second period Rocky Mountain elk rifle season closes.

Nov. 16: Last day of Mid-Coast Valley rifle elk season.

Nov. 19: Deadline to buy tags for Coast-Valley elk rifle season.

Nov. 20: Opening day of late Northwest deer and Coast-Valley elk rifle seasons.

Nov. 26: Coast-Valley elk rifle season closes.

Nov. 27: Late Northwest bow season opens.

Nov. 28: Last day of Southwest late deer bow season and of Eastern Oregon forest grouse season.

Nov. 30 Last day of fall turkey season and of Eastern Oregon bear season.

Dec. 12: Last day of late Northwest deer season and late antlerless elk seasons.

Dec. 31: Closing day for: statewide cougar; Eastern Oregon bear; chukar and Hungarian partridge in Umatilla and Morrow counties; and Mountain quail season in Klamath and Wallowa counties.

- Oregon Department Fish and Wildlife; Oregon Hunters Association 

CAPTION(S):

Bowhunter Cameron Hanes, author of "Bowhunting Trophy Blacktail," is silhouetted in a self-portrait. Summer rains have made good conditions for the archery season, which runs through Sept. 26. The rifle deer season opens Oct. 2.