Sudan Is Being Eased Out Of Isolation Under Egypt's Wing.

*** Egyptian Diplomacy Has The Blessing Of The US, With The State Department Beginning To Talk In Softer Terms About Khartoum

*** Support For Turabi Comes Mainly From Islamists In Sudan & Even They Are Said To Have Begun Hedging Their Bets

*** Saudi Arabia Announces The Formation Of A New Council, Headed By King Fahd, To Oversee Oil & Gas Policy

CAIRO - Sudan is at a new turning point in its history since the coup of June 1989. With the help of Egypt, President Omar Hassan Al Bashir is poised to assume full leadership of the country, having shared it over the past decade with the recently dismantled parliament's speaker, Hassan Al Turabi, an Islamist ideologue whose policies helped put Sudan on the US State Department's list of "terrorist states". The next steps in the power struggle between Bashir and Turabi would be critical, with some observers expecting the latter to hit back - but the final outcome would be determined by the level of support they are able to rally internationally.

Developments in Khartoum began to accelerate after Dec. 14, 1999, when Bashir took the surprise move of dismissing Turabi, dissolving parliament and declaring a state of emergency. Bashir's goals were achieved without bloodshed, and it appeared to have wide public support, a reality that was one of the reasons for Turabi's somewhat delayed reaction. The counter-move of Turabi involved getting the ruling National Congress Party, which he heads, to threaten on Dec. 19 to revoke Bashir's party membership if he did not reverse his decision to disband the legislature and impose a state of emergency - an ultimatum that was only published on

Dec. 21 in the government run daily newspaper 'Al Anbaa'. Bashir has not obliged and is not likely to do so.

However, the threat by Turabi was further weakened on Dec. 23 when Egyptian state TV announced the restoration of full diplomatic ties with Sudan following a two-day visit by Bashir. The Sudanese president said the visit represented a "new beginning" and Egyptian media indicated that an ambassador would be appointed to Khartoum for the first time since ties were severed in 1995, the year when Sudanese-backed Islamic militants made a failed attempt on Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's life in Addis Ababa. Cairo had regarded Turabi as one of the motivators behind the attack.

Bashir's position will continue to be strengthened by the international support he has received, with Cairo playing the major role. Mubarak had quietly lobbied the leaders of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries, during a tour he made in December, to get their backing for his move to support Bashir's moves. Qatar had stepped in to mediate between Bashir and Turabi, but by Jan. 5 that effort had been suspended. Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Bin Jabor Al Thani, who visited Khartoum on Jan. 2-3, said Turabi had retracted on a previously agreed reconciliation formula. Shaikh Hamad stopped over in Egypt on his way back to Qatar. Turabi himself visited Qatar on Jan. 1.

Support for Bashir is being carefully co-ordinated by Egypt and Libya, with Tripoli also having held Turabi's policies responsible for the upsurge in Islamic militancy in the country in recent years. By seriously undermining Turabi's political strength, the objective of both Mubarak and Qadhafi is to end his dream of pan-Islamic unity. Egypt and Libya launched an initiative in May 1999 to reconcile the Khartoum regime and the southern rebels, and end a conflict that has caused an estimated 1.5 million deaths from fighting and war-related famine. Bashir, a pragmatist despite his Islamist rhetoric, had been in favour of the initiative while Turabi had worked through his control of parliament to undermine these efforts. Egyptian Foreign Minister Amr Moussa and his Libyan counterpart Omar Mustafa Al Montasser met in Khartoum on Jan. 4 to discuss the May 1999 initiative and other issues.

Through its discreet but strong diplomacy, Egypt has opened up the possibility to stabilise Sudan - a country that has enormous economic potential as well as considerable hydrocarbon resources. Bashir has already disowned the "pan-Islamic" plans of Turabi. On Dec. 23, 'Al Gomhuria' newspaper of Egypt quoted him as asking during his visit: "How can a country that cannot realise its national unity and security of its territories...go beyond its borders in search of (Islamic) unity of states?" Indeed, there are indications that Bashir may himself want to follow the "Egyptian model", where a strong military leader set the country on a path of economic reform that has turned Egypt into one of the most attractive emerging markets in the world (see No. & Vol. 51, No. 24).

For Cairo, the move to support Bashir will have a number of positive repercussions. First, it would effectively choke off a key source of asylum for militant groups operating in Egypt. This would further reduce the potential for political instability in the country. Secondly, if Egyptian diplomacy manages to bring Sudan back into the international mainstream and on good terms with the US, it would boost Cairo's image in the region and the world as a dependable and responsible power. (It has already managed to achieve this to some extent with Libya, which now is one of the most promising sources of business for the Western countries in North Africa).

Third, Egypt will emerge not only as the main power in the North and East African zone, but also as a power that is respected for its benign approach and positive influence. The effort to spread a positive influence has been at the core of Egyptian diplomacy since the isolation of Cairo in the Arab World ended in the late 1980s. Fourth, it will create a much better climate for the two countries to resolve their outstanding territorial dispute over the oil and mineral rich Halaib triangle on the Red Sea as well as disagreements over Egyptian properties in Sudan.

Fifth, and perhaps most important from the Egyptian perspective at present, is the potentially huge economic rewards to be reaped if the Sudanese economy can be gradually plugged into the global system. The largest country on the African continent, with huge tracts of farmland watered by Nile tributaries, Sudan has the capability to be the breadbasket of the Arab World. In addition, it has begun developing its hydrocarbon resources. In 1999, Sudan exported oil for the first time. But oil development in the country is still linked to the southern rebellion, with the richest oil zones in disputed areas.

Despite the positive potentials, according to Egyptian observers the long-term stability of Bashir's regime would depend on how he deals with the exiled opposition, based mainly in Egypt and Eritrea, and with neighbouring countries such as Uganda which have for years had a hostile relationship with Sudan because of its export of militancy. Ties with Uganda took a dramatic step for the better on Dec. 8, 1999, when a surprise peace deal was brokered in Nairobi by former US president Jimmy Carter. Given the bitterness of past relations between the two countries, the observers say, Bashir should not have a major problem reconciling with exiled Sudanese opposition parties grouped under the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). In a speech on New Year's Eve, Bashir made a symbolic gesture signaling his willingness for a dialogue with the NDA, by promising to revise a one-year-old law on political associations - pushed through by Turabi - that opposition parties had rejected. On Jan. 2, 'Al Rai Al Akher' newspaper quoted the Ministry of Justice as saying that "the government wants to draft a law on parties which overcomes all past differences". In the meantime, Bashir has started consolidating his position: government ministers resigned on Dec. 31 and are functioning in a caretaker capacity until he appoints a handpicked cabinet.