Subtle signs of change in Turkmenistan

The people of Turkmenistan, ruled for more than two decades by an eccentric autocrat, are about to vote for his replacement in their first presidential election with more than one candidate _ but still only one party.

The multiple candidates in Sunday's election are among a series of hints that Turkmenistan, a strategic Central Asian nation with immense natural gas reserves, may be slowly changing its ways. But it's unclear how far it will move out of the late President Saparmurat Niyazov's shadow.

At a polling station in Niyazov's hometown of Kipchak, his personality cult is in full force. Niyazov's portrait is on all the walls, and copies of his poems and philosophical writings are on prominent display.

But a polling place in the capital, Ashgabat, shows much less evidence of Niyazov, and station head Mered Ovlyakuliyev says he senses change in the air.

"There is a difference. We are moving toward democracy," Ovlyakuliyev said, though he could not name the party affiliation of any of the six candidates. Turkmenistan has only one party, the late president's Turkmenistan Democratic Party.

Niyazov, who died Dec. 21, dominated his country of 5 million people as few other modern leaders have. He called himself Turkmenbashi, or Father of All Turkmen. He made his book, "Rukhnama," required reading in schools and promised that anyone who read it three times a day would go to heaven. He renamed days and months after himself and his family.

By contrast, Deputy Prime Minister Gurbanguli Berdymukhamedov, who became acting president for the transition period and is widely expected to win the election, has seemed comparatively modest. Berdymukhamedov ceded his allotted television campaign time to the other candidates, state TV shows only brief remarks by him, and his photo is rarely displayed in state newspapers.

He also has startled observers with a series of remarks indicating a significant move away from Niyazov's tight control. He promised unrestricted Internet access for all Turkmens, support for entrepreneurship and a widening of educational opportunities.

But Berdymukhamedov has not spoken of political reform. He promised the country would follow democracy _ as Niyazov defined it. The other candidates have pledged to continue Niyazov's policies.

Russia and the West have strong interests in the path chosen by Turkmenistan, because of its rich natural resources and its strategic position bordering Iran and Afghanistan.

For now, Turkmenistan remains closed-off and opaque. The opposition in exile made bold statements about returning to Turkmenistan in the early days after Niyazov's death, but faded from view after Turkmen authorities barred a plane carrying dissidents back to their homeland. Many foreign-based journalists have been unable to obtain visas to report on the election.

Some analysts suggest that the presence of multiple candidates is a matter mostly of appearance. "Real competition hasn't been visible," said Yevgeny Minchenko of the Moscow-based International Institute of Political Expertise.

But it could also be a first, tentative move toward genuine reform, said Azhdar Krutov of the Russian Institute of Strategic Research.

"When six candidates appear on TV and meet with voters, it's a serious step forward," he said.

For ordinary Turkmens, the election is both a novelty and a time for anxiety.

"It's 200 percent certain that Berdymukhamedov will win _ I'm not worried about that," said an Ashgabat resident who, like most Turkmens, was unwilling to give his name because he feared reprisal. "I'm worried about what's next."

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Associated Press writers Jim Heintz in Moscow and Bagila Bukharbayeva in Almaty, Kazakhstan, contributed to this report.