Studios in hunt for box office, critical rewards.

Get ready for the deluge.

Over the next month, Hollywood studios will release no fewer than 20 films in an annual high-stakes holiday shootout that combines the most lucrative moviegoing period of the year with intense jockeying for Oscar consideration.

It's all part of the annual chess match that plays out as studios tussle for the best release dates for their films, dates that factor not only into box office tallies but the year-end Oscar sprint.

But if the recent past is a guide it's clear that the best laid plans of producers and distribution executives don't always pan out.

During the past three holiday seasons--generally considered the six weeks from Thanksgiving through the first weekend of the New Year--there were nearly 20 films released that earned more than $100 million.

Several, including "A Beautiful Mind" and "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon," have also gone on to win multiple Academy Awards.

But for every "Crouching Tiger," a relatively inexpensive film propelled by strong word of mouth, there is a "The Majestic." The 2001 Jim Carrey feature, with a budget of $72 million, was heavily hyped but faded quickly in the Christmas crunch, going on to earn a paltry $28 million.

Or there was Miramax's "The Shipping News," also released in 2001. Based on a best-selling novel and starting two-time Oscar winner Kevin Spacey, it grossed less than $12 million. Last year's biggest holiday loser was "Star Trek: Nemesis," which cost $70 million to produce and earned just $43 million in North American box office.

"There are no sure things in Hollywood," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box-office tracker Exhibitor Relations Co. "There is so much product out there (during the holidays) it's inevitable somebody is going to get burned."

Big-money season

About 20 percent of Hollywood box-office receipts are earned between Thanksgiving and just after New Year's, or roughly $1.86 billion based on 2002 totals, according to Exhibitor Relations. Studios often save their biggest stars and brightest scripts for the holidays to pave the way for seamless promotional campaigns when awards season begins in January.

Among the films vying to grab a large slice of the holiday pie this year are "Elf," "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King," "The Cat in the Hat," "Cold Mountain," "The Last Samurai," "Peter Pan," "Master and Commander" and "The Haunted Mansion."

"It's as much of a gamble as making the movie," Russell Schwartz, president of domestic marketing at New Line Cinema said of the decision to open during the holidays. "There's always going to be problems with a crowded release date."

Perhaps no company has had more success during the holidays in the last two years than New Line, whose first two "Lord of the Rings" movies have grossed more than $600 million combined. When "Return of the King" comes out next month, it will be the third consecutive December release for the franchise, dates that were all fixed in 2000, Schwartz said.

But with "Elf," a seemingly obvious holiday pick, New Line opted for an early November release, hoping to build momentum before other family films with bigger brand names and bigger budgets hit the theaters.

"Elf" opened against "The Matrix: Revolutions," which Schwartz said "was a classic counter-programming move." By choosing to go up against a film targeting an entirely different demographic New Line dodged direct box office competition from "The Cat in the Hat" and "Looney Tunes: Back in Action."

"Elf" was credited with denting the opening weekend tally of the latest installment in "The Matrix" series and had earned $70 million as of last week. But the risk for New Line, as well as 20th Century Fox's "Master and Commander," which also tried to stretch the traditional holiday timeline with an early release, is that they may fade before the big attendance weeks. They also risk being eclipsed by newer films in the December marketing blitz.

"There is a risk, which is why we are only releasing one film this (holiday season)," said Steve Gilula, president of distribution for Fox Searchlight Pictures. "Sometimes the distribution people guess wrong about the critical response, the audience support isn't there or you misjudge the competition. Any one of the factors can be the difference."

Fox Searchlight is releasing "In America," a story of an Irish immigrant family, on a limited basis beginning Nov. 26 in New York. It will roll out into more cities each week until it is on 300 screens by Christmas, Gilula said. In addition to director Jim Sheridan ("My Left Foot") being insistent on a holiday release, Fox Searchlight was keen to garner awards consideration.

"We do believe it is a high-quality film that has the potential to be recognized for awards," he said. "And there is a long history of opening up the work of serious filmmakers this time of year."

With the exception of holiday tie-ins, there are no hard and fast roles about what type of movie to release during the last weeks of the year.

Besides potential blockbusters and awards contenders, many studios release films with more modest budgets and expectations during the holidays, though those run the risk of getting lost amid the noise made by the bigger films.

One of those is Warner Bros.' "Love Don't Cost a Thing," produced by Alcon Entertainment. Andrew Kosove, co-president of Alcon, acknowledged it could be especially difficult getting a smaller film noticed amid the holiday mix.

"It's going to be extremely crowded with content and no one can say how it will come out," Kosove said. "We felt this was a film that really had a place in the holidays because it has a moral message and given the lack of urban content, we thought it could fill a niche."

Bob Laemmle, owner of Laemmle Theatres, thinks it's a tall order for smaller films to debut in December. "You see some nice films getting overlooked this time of year because they can't compete with the big guns," he said.

Fairly Merry Christmas

Holiday releases in 2002 provided a mixed bag.

                                                         Box
Film                            Studio        Budget   Office *

Lord of the Rings:             New Line        $94       $340
The Two Towers

Harry Potter and the         Warner Bros.      100       262
Chamber of Secrets

Catch Me If You Can           DreamWorks        52       165

Die Another Day                   MGM          142       160

The Santa Clause 2              Disney          60       139

Star Trek: Nemesis             Paramount        70        43

Analyze That             Tribeca Productions/   NA        32
                             Warner Bros.

Film                               Comment

Lord of the Rings:       A huge hit and the No.2 grossing film
The Two Towers           of the year, third chapter due out Dec. 17

Harry Potter and the     Made $88 million in its opening weekend and
Chamber of Secrets       was the fourth highest grossing film of the
                         year

Catch Me If You Can      Steven Spielberg feature garnered solid
                         of reviews and was a quiet hit

Die Another Day          With its inflated budget, latest installment
                         the James Bond franchise didn't live up to
                         expectations

The Santa Clause 2       Solid if unspectacular follow-up to 1994 hit

Star Trek: Nemesis       The 10th film in the Star Trek franchise was
                         a major bomb, may not see No. 11 for a while

Analyze That             Disappeared quickly amid more popular
                         holiday films

* North America, in millions.

NA- Not Available

Sources: Exhibitor Relations Co., IMDB.com