Statistical learning tools: simple circles explain complex numbers.

A professor of international health at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm, Hans Rosling recognized an ironic situation while teaching young students in Sweden about health problems in rural Africa: while research and statistical data were, expectedly, more easily available to people in rich countries than in poor ones, he felt that those who did not suffer from such hurdles knew much less about their "neighbours" than those who did. "How can we take the numerical data that most countries and the United Nations have compiled and make it available to the public in a more appealing and understandable way?" Dr. Rosling asked. Feeling that it would be easier to understand and remember statistics through visual images, he envisioned a graph that could demonstrate the relationship between health and wealth of countries, symbolized by "bubbles", and their sizes proportional to population. He wanted to enable people to see instinctively where and in what conditions the majority of the world live.

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Rosling's idea was made feasible by one of his students who wrote a computer programme that could plot the statistical data into the graph. The professor was also intrigued by a question most often raised by his students: "How did they [the less developed countries] move up?" He thought that if the bubbles could be made mobile, his graph would better demonstrate the gradual development of each country. One day, his son Ola, then a college student in economic history and art at Gothenburg University, asked him if he could "borrow" and make use of the idea about a visual display that could demonstrate the growth of countries over time. Without hesitation Rosling agreed, and in the fall of 1998 the first prototype came out. He recalled how he, his son and the first viewers were struck by the amount of information they could absorb from these moving "bubbles"--fathoming the twenty-year development progress of the world in twenty seconds.

Having witnessed the impact of a simple prototype on audiences, the Roslings decided to promote this innovative idea and make it of benefit to everyone. They applied for funding from the Swedish Fund for IT (Information Technology) in Learning, but were turned down, and so they decided to use the family's own funds to improve the prototype. In the spring of 1999, an updated prototype plotted a world health chart to visualize international health development and enable better use of health data for learning, advocacy and hypothesis generation.

After finishing the initial design of the chart, Dr. Rosling presented it to the Statistics Department of the World Health Organization. WHO was willing to sponsor further development of the chart, whose support enabled the Roslings to complete their first full beta version. The WHO recognition also gave them valuable credence to apply for more funding from the Swedish International Development Agency, which eventually became the main sponsor of their other programmes.

In March 2003. Dr. Rosling met with staff of the UN Statistics Division of the United Nations Development Programme. With sufficient funding, the Roslings were able to produce a number of advanced prototypes also on other topics, ranging from education, health and income charts to the Millennium Development Goals achievement and human development trends. Speaking to the UN Chronicle, Dr. Rosling noted that the software was very cumbersome to develop and required the formation of a non-profit company consisting of programmers and graphic designers. The mission of the new company named Gapminder was to mind the gaps in the world.

Speaking to the Chronicle, Paul Cheung, head of the UN Statistics Division, expressed support for the idea of making the database of the United Nations more visible and accessible to the public: "We are always happy to see people use our data for any kind of analysis. But especially with his creative software, Prof. Rosling has made an impact on the international audience, and we are particularly pleased to see it [the software] become successful and widely accepted today." Mr. Cheung added that it was always the first priority of the Division to produce an accurate numerical database, but academia and research organizations were encouraged to make those statistics more tangible to the public through their own innovative devices.

Gapminder is undoubtedly among the pioneers in this enterprise. Visitors to its web site (www.gapminder.org), can view and download free software that "visualizes" human development. Dr. Rosling and his colleagues believe there has been a market failure in distributing global data: many people want to know more facts about the world but cannot afford the data. The advanced skills required to analyze the statistics cut down further the number of people who have access to data and are able to understand it. Thanks to the Internet and the concept of "global public goods", that market failure might be overcome.

Dr. Rosling envisions the role of Gapminder's software, or a better one developed by others, as the crucial transmitter linking the statistical sources provided by the United Nations, Governments and non-governmental organizations to a civil society that needs to make use of such information. Ensuring that the public is accurately informed about the purpose and progress of global projects is a crucial step in accomplishing them. Equipped with educational tools such as those by Gapminder, both the public and policy makers could convert multiple databases with numerical statistics into an attractive "garden filled with blooming flowers" of accomplished global goals, which Dr. Rosling has always dreamed about.

RELATED ARTICLE: Measuring Human Development: Statistical Tools

The well-being of a nation goes beyond reaching economic stability through achieving a low unemployment rate and a high income level. Financial wealth is just an instrument for reaching the final goal of human development--human well-being. It is more about freedom of choice, self-realization through education and career, high public health level and mutual respect of nations.

The Human Development Report (HDR) of the United Nations Development Programme is a practical guide to the understanding of which indicators are used for measuring human development and what defines the current position and rank change of a country or region. It also provides statistical data that has important implications for various scientific areas and is widely used by both the general public and professional policy makers.

HDR 2004 goes even further; it provides data and statistical reference for assessing the progress towards the implementation of the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in each country. First launched in 1990, the HDR has presented findings annually from more than 100 countries. Since that time, four major human development indices have been developed: Human Development Index (HDI); Gender Empowerment Measure; Gender-related Development Index; and Human Poverty Index. The Report presents human development indicator tables based on the HDI, and thematic statistical analysis.

The HDI is a more objective and realistic tool of measuring human well-being rather than just national income level. It is composed of three basic dimensions of human development: a long and healthy life, measured by life expectancy at birth; knowledge, measured by the adult literacy rate and the combined gross enrolment ratio for educational institutions; and a decent standard of living, measured by the gross domestic product per capita in purchasing power parity in United States dollars.

The major tool of the HDR is statistics, and a high standard of statistical quality is desirable (see UN Chronicle, Issue 4, 2003, page 12). However, HDR statistics are not just about collecting data but more about how to fill the data gaps and reduce inconsistency in regional and international data estimates, interpret it correctly and create effective statistical models with minimal specification bias. HDR statistical content maintains high quality and reliability because of the support and cooperation of many data agencies and experts. Another complexity the HDR may have faced is making statistical data comprehensive for the general public, by creating visual images that could illustrate change of the major indicators with a time lag. Animation graphs representing MDG progress and human development trends were included in HDR 2003, while HDR 2004 contains another important tool-a two-dimensional graph with HDI indicators as axis--for better understanding of the regions' historical and current human development position. The graphs, developed and provided by Gapminder, a non-profit organization based in Sweden, are free for public access.

--Oksana Kim

By Nguyen Tang Le Huy Quoc-Benjamin, for the Chronicle