Stations look to initiatives as national ads go elsewhere.

While President Bush and Sen. John Kerry have amassed record war chests to fund their respective campaigns, area broadcasters are not expecting an advertising windfall this presidential election year.

Kerry has a commanding lead in all the California polls, and with both campaigns focusing on Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania, so-called battleground states, they are not expected to spend much time--or money--in the Golden State, where commercial rates are among the highest in the country.

Meanwhile, local television and radio executives are looking to local and statewide races to take up the spending slack. That actually could benefit them because unlike candidate races, where federal roles require stations to charge at the lowest rate, campaigns for propositions are not subject to such limitations. And propositions make up a large portion of November's ballot.

"We already know we're not going to be a battleground state, but that doesn't mean there won't be the issue-oriented ads," said Pat Duffy, vice president and market manager for Infinity Broadcasting Operations Inc.'s KNX-AM (1070) and KFWB-AM (980). "There are a lot of important issues, and many are backed by people with a lot riding on them. So we are expecting a good showing of political ads as we head to Election Day."

TV and radio advertising executives said it was too early to gauge how well this presidential election year will match up against the previous one in terms of ad spending, although a study by the financial firm Harris Nesbitt said the state's television stations are expected to reap around 10 percent of the nation's overall political advertising pie--with most of that coming from propositions. Several of those initiatives on the ballot have backers with deep pockets.

"Obviously television is an important venue in a state like California," said Fiona Hutton. spokeswoman for Yes on Prop. 71, which would authorize a $3 billion state bond offering to fund stem cell research.

"We will begin a very significant campaign after Labor Day. I can't say where or how much we are going to advertise because that would be like giving our opponents out playbook, but we will have an extremely strong presence on television as well as a strong grass-roots campaign," she said.

Also expected to generate heavy advertising are Proposition 68, which would allow horse tracks and card clubs to install slot machines, and Proposition 70, a competing slot machine initiative backed by Indian casino operators.

Mary Beth Garber, president of the Southern California Broadcasters Association, cited those measures in particular as "real juicy propositions" with "pretty big war chests."

Gene Raper, a consultant for Citizens for a Fair Share of Indian Gaming Revenue, a backer of Proposition 70, said the lack of competitiveness in the presidential race in California bodes well for his group's efforts.

"It will make it easier and cheaper to buy TV time," he said. "TV time is the quintessential means of getting your message out in a state this big and buying time is all about supply and demand. The lack of competitiveness in the two races will mean there is more time available."

But while there may be a sizable amount of ad money up for grabs this year, the fragmented media landscape also ensures an ample number of outlets reaching for it.

"We are seeing a change in the way election money is being spent," said Rick Oster, general sales manager for Adlink, which sells commercial time on 44 cable networks for the five local cable systems.

"We are seeing a growth in the size of the cable audience and a move away from traditional buying methods that favor local news programs," said Oster. "California may not be a battlegound state this year for the presidential election but that doesn't mean there is not a good deal of election money at stake due to the propositions."

Cable already has been an important component in the presidential race, where both sides are targeting particular channels in order to reach potential voters. All told, political advertisers are expected to pay a record $1.3 billion in television time nationwide this year, compared with $910 million spent four years ago, according to a report by, Legg Mason Inc.