State voters feeling generous despite slow economy. (Up Front).

Now that voters overwhelmingly showed their willingness to approve state and local bond measures, expect to see a lot more of them in future elections.

The temptation will be strong to use the funding mechanisms as a way to get money for education, infrastructure and other operations, even though a heavy use of bonds eventually could hurt credit ratings.

Reversing a trend to reject most bond measures in slow economic times, virtually every bond measure placed on last week's local and statewide ballot passed, many with huge margins. In all, California voters approved $18 billion in statewide bonds, with voters in L.A. County passing an additional $4 billion.

School bonds accounted for most of these funding measures, including a massive $13 billion statewide education facilities bond and a $3.3 billion bond for new schools in the L.A. Unified School District.

But voters' generous pockets extended beyond education as they approved a $2.1 billion affordable housing bond and a $3.4 billion water quality bond. In Los Angeles, voters approved a permanent increase in property taxes to fund the county's trauma network.

"Given these adverse conditions, I'm surprised that all these bonds passed," said Rod Kiewiet, professor of political science at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

Only a statewide measure diverting existing funds to transportation projects, a countywide museum bond and a couple of small local school bonds failed to pass last Tuesday.

"I would expect people to look at the rate of approval and seek to place more general obligation bonds on future ballots," said Larry McCarthy, president of the California Taxpayers' Association. "It will be on the minds of a lot of interest groups to go to this kind of funding, especially when the budget situation is so dire."

Ballet measures slated

Bond measures totaling another $22 billion already have been placed on 2004 state ballots. In March of that year, voters will see a $12 billion education facilities bond (the second part of the $25 billion package approved by the Legislature this year). The November 2004 ballot contains a $10 billion high-speed rail bond.

And with billions in pent-up infrastructure demands still out there, there is no shortage of targets for bond funding. Fixing crumbling and overcrowded highways, building more affordable homes, seismic retrofitting of hospitals and other essential structures will take tens of billions of dollars over the next 10 to 20 years.

In more flush times, many of these needs could be -- and were -- met with state budget funds. But with the state confronted with a $24 billion deficit this past year and likely facing several more years of multibillion-dollar shortfalls, that option is off limits for the foreseeable future.

The question is how much more generous are California and L.A. voters going to be? That, state government watchers say, will depend on the state of the economy and the nature of the bond measures themselves.

"If the economy starts churning again, these measures will pass," said Alfred Balitzer, professor of political science and dean of faculty at Soka University. "But if we have a tough 2003 -- as it's shaping up to be -- then I think these things are in trouble in 2004."

The main reason why voters were in such a generous mood this year, Balitzer said, was that the economic slowdown and budget crisis really haven't hit home yet for many.

"We haven't had the massive layoffs among the middle-class high propensity voters that we saw 10 years ago," he said. "And the state's fiscal crisis, although it's made some headlines, really hasn't hit voters in the form of higher taxes or service cuts."

Closing the gap

It was precisely to avoid such hits that Gov. Gray Davis and the state Legislature resorted to extensive one-time borrowing measures -- such as bonding future tobacco settlement dollars -- to close the $24 billion budget gap last summer. With an approaching election, they were not willing to risk the wrath of voters.

Next year, though, the expectation is that tax hikes and service cuts will begin to hit the average voter. Once this happens, some believe, voters might be much less likely to approve additional debt.

Then there's the nature of the bond measures themselves. Education bonds will continue to fare well at the polls, almost regardless of the economy.

"People are seeing that schools are overcrowded and need repairs," said Harvey Englander, senior vice president of the MWW Group in Los Angeles and a veteran campaign consultant.

Bonds or tax hikes for other needs perceived as dire -- such as the county's fraying trauma care network -- also could buck the trend, he said.

But other types of bond measures, especially those for parks or other environmental purposes, may not fare as well if the lean times continue. And if too many multibillion-dollar bond measures get approved, the state's credit ratings could be affected.

So far, even with the $18 billion in bonds approved last week, the state's ratio of bond debt to total personal income is still far short of the danger zone. The debt ratio increased from about 4 percent to 5 percent Credit rating agencies generally sound the alarm when the debt ratio hits the 8 percent or 9 percent level.

But if equal amounts of bonds are approved on each of the next several ballots, that safety margin could quickly disappear.

"This could become a potent argument that potential opponents to these bond measures could coalesce around," said Caltech's Kiewiet.