State releases plan for flu outbreak.

Byline: David Steves The Register-Guard

Individual precautions and quarantining in communities struck by a bird flu pandemic will be the only means of controlling the disease until a vaccine becomes available, according to the state's new response plan released Thursday.

The 26-page Pandemic Influenza Plan was released by Gov. Ted Kulongoski at a Portland summit meeting that featured U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt.

Leavitt has presided over similar events across the country to share information and planning between federal, state, local and private health care officials.

Leavitt and Kulongoski signed a resolution authorizing $1.3 million in federal spending for Oregon's pandemic planning. Leavitt made clear, though, that governments on every level can only do so much, and that it's ultimately up to individuals to take care of themselves.

Kulongoski echoed those sentiments, saying everyone has a role to play.

"Don't look to the state government. I shouldn't look to the federal government to be the salvation," he said. "And I think the citizens have to do something themselves to be prepared for this."

Elizabeth Miglioretto, Lane County's public health preparedness coordinator, was one of about 200 to attend the summit. She said that while quarantining would be a major strategy to combat the bird flu, the term wasn't being used because it "conjures up harsh images for people."

She said citizens should expect "a lot of voluntary social distancing," both to contain those potentially infected with the virus and to protect those vulnerable to contracting it.

Miglioretto said bringing the plan down to the local level would involve more cooperation with employers, businesses, schools and governments. During a pandemic, for instance, businesses that need to continue receiving shipments will need to work out a plan for trucks to deliver their order but for the receiving company to unload the goods so the truck driver can minimize exposure, she said.

Miglioretto also emphasized the need for individuals who use the same sort of practices to avoid other infectious diseases to resist the bird flu. That means keeping at an arm's length distance from others to avoid airborne droplets spread by coughing or sneezing. It also means wiping off surfaces used by others, such as computer keyboards and door handles.

The Oregon Pandemic Influenza Plan was built for a "moderate" scenario: 35 percent of Oregonians become ill, with 11,125 being hospitalized and 2,717 dying. In the case of a severe pandemic, 1.2 million could become ill in Oregon, with 128,700 requiring hospital care and 24,700 dying.

The pandemic, which could spread fast because humans have not yet built up a natural immunity to the bird flu, might hit in one or more waves of outbreaks lasting six weeks or more. Under this scenario, communities would have to provide largely for their own people. Outbreaks could hit simultaneously throughout the country, limiting the sort of mutual aid that normally occurs in times of disaster.

Health officials wanted a way to deal with the likelihood that no vaccine would be available at the outbreak's onset. They also assumed that quarantining infected people couldn't be counted on and that the health care system would face bird flu-related struggles of its own: Some doctors and nurses would be ill, and essential drugs and other materials would be in short supply.

It's expected to take six months for a vaccination to be developed and manufactured after a pandemic hits.

There has not been an influenza pandemic since 1968, and the odds are low that the current bird flu strain will mutate to be easily passed among humans, said Susan Allan, Oregon's public health director.

Lab work will be critical to Oregon's response, according to the plan. It said workers would track death and hospitalization data to determine those groups of people at greatest risk of death or severe illness.

The Oregon State Public Health agency would take the lead in storing and distributing antiviral drugs and other medical supplies from the federal Strategic National Stockpile. It would do the same with the bird flu vaccine once it becomes available.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

MORE INFORMATION

Pandemic flu readiness: www.pandemicflu.gov

State's pandemic plan: oregon.gov/DHS/ph/acd/flu/oregonfluplan05.pdf