State of the new black power: election reveals shifts in democratic and Republican parties.

On Jan. 20, Americans can hail their chief as Inauguration Day officially ushers Republican George W. Bush into his second term in the White House. Not only did the November elections lead to four more years of Bush but his party also strengthened its grip on Capitol Hill. The GOP expanded its majorities in both the Senate and House of Representatives. With Republicans wielding such power at the executive and legislative levels, Democratic leaders are assessing how to move their party's agenda forward and gain traction with the electorate in future races. The question looms: What does all this mean for African Americans?

For one, the presidential election gave rise to a number of black Republicans who may prove influential with the Bush administration. The nation's most powerful black politician is expected to be National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice, who was recently nominated by Bush for secretary of state after Colin Powell resigned from the position. This is a historic move in that Rice, expected to be confirmed by the Senate, will be the first black woman to hold the post and she succeeds the first African American to serve as the nation's chief diplomat. Besides managing the diplomatic agenda, Rice, unlike Powell, has unlimited and unfiltered access to the president and is considered one of his most trusted advisers on a range of international and domestic issues.

Over the next four years, the Bush administration is expected to fill as many as four seats on the Supreme Court. This will influence the lives of Americans for years to come on issues ranging from affirmative action to civil liberties. His first appointment will most likely be a successor for Chief Justice William Rehnquist, who is stricken with thyroid cancer. One of the names on Bush's short list: Associate Justice Clarence Thomas, the only black on the court and one of the most conservative justices.

Other black Republicans expected to exercise great influence include Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, who served as deputy permanent chairman of the 2004 Republican National Convention and was given a prime-time slot to address conventioneers and the nation; Ohio Lt. Gov. Jeannette Bradley, the first black woman elected to the post, and Ohio Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell (both of whom were considered helpful in Bush's victory in the key battleground state); Department of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Alphonso Jackson (at press time, he was not expected to resign from his post); and Larry Thompson, the former deputy attorney general in Bush's first term and general counsel for PepsiCo, who was considered for the attorney general post for the second term of the Bush administration (White House Counsel Alberto Gonzales received the nomination). However, no black Republicans were elected to congressional seats in 2004. And it is yet to be seen how any of the emerging black power brokers will impact legislative or executive policies that could affect large numbers of African Americans.

While the Democratic Party failed to win enough electoral votes for the presidency, several black legislators won their respective states. When the 109th Congress convenes, the roll in the House will include three African American freshmen: Emanuel Cleaver II from Missouri, Al Green from Texas, and Gwen Moore from Wisconsin--all Democrats. The election also saw the return of black Democrat Cynthia McKinney, who won back her seat in Georgia's 4th Congressional District.

Sixty-year-old Cleaver is a former two-term mayor of Kansas City whose top priorities are to protect Missouri's jobs, ensure affordable healthcare, and improve education. Green, 57, is an attorney and joins African American Sheila Jackson Lee, who represents Houston in Congress. Moore, 53, is making history as the first African American congresswoman to represent Wisconsin. Her campaign was unhurt by her opposition to the war in Iraq and call for a domestic agenda that she says will "relieve us of a dearth of jobs, a lack of healthcare, and a divestment in educational opportunities."

As a member of the House Armed Services Committee, McKinney complained about war profiteering and the connection between the White House and the Carlyle Group and Halliburton--before Michael Moore's popular and controversial film Fahrenheit 9/11. The five-term representative was unseated by Democrat Denise Majette two years ago and was targeted for her controversial position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. McKinney, 49, also suggested that Bush had advance notice of the 9-11 terrorist attacks, presaging the 9-11 Commission's revelation of the now-famous Aug. 6, 2001, presidential daily briefing titled Bin Ladin Determined to Strike in U.S.

With all black incumbents in the House winning re-election, the Congressional Black Caucus roster now totals a historic 43 members. The most notable addition, of course, is Barack Obama from Illinois, who won a Senate seat with his landslide victory over black Republican Alan Keyes. Obama, 43, is the third African American senator since Reconstruction. The other African American vying for a Senate seat was Majette, who lost out to white Republican Johnny Isakson.

Well grounded in local politics, Obama demonstrated a grasp of big-picture public policy at the national level. The self-described "skinny kid with a funny name" won the hearts of millions of Americans with his keynote address at the Democratic National Convention in July. However, his arrival on Capitol Hill is likely to elicit a lukewarm reception. Obama and his Democratic colleagues will have far more difficulty handling Republicans in Congress who don't share the same philosophy on major issues such as affirmative action, moral values, and defense spending.

Political analysts say there will be a number of critical issues taken up by the next Congress, including the confirmation of judicial nominees. Bush appointed 200 judges to the federal bench during his first term, and the public can expect a similar number of appointments in the next four years. Senate Democrats will have a harder time blocking the confirmation of the president's ultraconservative judicial nominees.

Also at stake is the further erosion of statutes guaranteeing civil rights protections, a woman's right to reproductive choice, and measures that affect low-income Americans.

McKinney says a new agenda is needed that reflects the consensus of black America, that looks at pocketbook issues, and that is results-oriented. "This agenda should include promoting black business, protecting civil liberties, and helping African American communities gain greater access to the $2 trillion the federal government spends each year, as well as [money spent by] state and local governments."

The new political geography resulting from the November elections will work to the disadvantage of African Americans, says William Spriggs, senior fellow at the Economic Policy Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, and also a member of the BLACK ENTERPRISE Board of Economists. "This will make things more difficult when President Bush advances his proposals to unravel the Social Security program and rewrite the tax code."

Spriggs says House Republicans have introduced measures to replace the income tax with a national sales tax. Such a plan would not only be regressive, placing a disproportionate tax burden on low-income Americans, it would do away with tax incentives for corporations to make valuable public investments like building housing for low-income families.

"This scheme would not be revenue-neutral. It would expand the deficit, putting more pressure on programs that benefit low- and moderate-income Americans. Provisions of the tax code like the Earned Income Tax Credit for the working poor, mortgage tax deductions for homeowners, and deductions for pretax earnings for healthcare would be eliminated," he explains.

Political analysts also believe Democrats will have a tough time trying to enact a minimum wage bill or an initiative to provide health coverage to the 45 million Americans who are without it And because of the $400 billion deficit Bush accumulated in his first term, there will be little chance to fully fund the No Child Left Behind Act, raise the amount college students receive for Federal Pell Grants, extend support for the unemployed, or increase spending for food stamps, Section 8 housing certificates, Supplemental Security Income for the elderly and disabled, and a myriad of other social programs.

WHAT AIL US?

TOP 5 MOST IMPORTANT CONCERNS

                      2004   2002   2000
BLACK POPULATION

Employment/Economy    34%    23%    14%
War in Iraq           22%     6%      -
Prescription Drugs/   20%     5%    18%
Healthcare
Terrorism             10%    17%     1%
Education              7%    14%    26%

WHITE POPULATION

War in Iraq           25%     4%      -
Employment/Economy    21%    18%     4%
Prescription Drugs/   17%     7%    18%
Healthcare
Terrorism             16%    27%     3%
Education              3%    10%    24%

SOURCE: JOINT CENTER FOR POLITICAL
AND ECONOMIC STUDIES, 2004 NATIONAL
OPINION POLL