State's economy slips a bit in August.Byline: Sherri Buri McDonald The Register-Guard
Oregon's economy is growing at a slower pace, but the threat of recession is still relatively low, according to according to
1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of: according to historians.
2. In keeping with: according to instructions.
3. the latest University of Oregon The University of Oregon is a public university located in Eugene, Oregon. The university was founded in 1876, graduating its first class two years later. The University of Oregon is one of 60 members of the Association of American Universities. Index of Economic Indicators Economic indicators
The key statistics of the economy that reveal the direction the economy is heading in; for example, the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. .
The monthly index tracks eight economic indicators and is a short-term predictor of the state's economy.
In August, only two of the index's indicators improved: Oregon nonfarm payrolls Nonfarm payrolls is an economic employment report released monthly.
It is a compiled name for goods-producing, construction and manufacturing companies. The data is released at 1:30pm BST on the first Friday of every month, or according to the U.S. and Oregon residential building permits.
And the improvement in building permit activity was slight.
"I think the housing market is still under the stress of the national downturn," said Tim Duy, director of the Oregon Economic Forum and author of the index. "It might not be as bad as some other places, but it's still under stress."
New manufacturing orders were unchanged in August, while the remaining five indicators all deteriorated: Oregon initial unemployment claims, help-wanted advertising in The Oregonian, the Oregon weight-distance tax - a measure of trucking activity - U.S. consumer confidence and the spread between long- and short-term interest rates Short-term interest rates
Interest rates on loan contracts-or debt instruments such as Treasury bills, bank certificates of deposit or commerical paper-having maturities of less than one year. Often called money market rates. .
"It's almost like the economy walked through some molasses molasses, sugar byproduct, the brownish liquid residue left after heat crystallization of sucrose (commercial sugar) in the process of refining. Molasses contains chiefly the uncrystallizable sugars as well as some remnant sucrose. ," Duy said.
But he still pegs the risk of a recession at only about 30 percent.
"Most analysts had expected the economy to slow in the second half of 2006," Duy said. "From my perspective, that's premature to say that will lead into a bad or recessionary scenario."
The overall story is still one of a mature business cycle transitioning to a somewhat slower level of growth, Duy said.
That isn't necessarily bad, he added, because it does tend to control inflation.
Overall, the index slipped 0.4 percent in August to 106.8. The index uses 1996 as its base, with a rating of 100.