Spring surprise?

I HAVE been watching the Dail, the lower house of the Irish parliament, on and off for more than fifty years now, and I have never before seen in those precincts such an effusion of sweetness and light as accompanied the election as prime minister (Taoiseach) of John Bruton, head of the Fine Gael party. Partly this was due to the general relief at the ending of the parliamentary crisis that had been going on for more than a month--ever since the former ruling coalition broke up over the attorney general's protecting from extradition a priest wanted in Northern Ireland on charges of pedophilia. Even for the naturally acrimonious, a month of sustained confrontation was enough. Partly the tone was set, with magnanimity, by the loser: Bertie Ahern, the new leader of Fianna Fail, who had been expected to be prime minister in a renewed Fianna Fail--Labour coalition. John Bruton led the opposition in exposing the anomalies and contradictions of the relations between Fianna Fail and Labour, and this contributed mightily to wrecking the attempt at renewing that coalition--and thus to dashing Bertie Ahern's personal hopes.

In the circumstances Mr. Ahern might have been expected to be bitter, but if he is he didn't let it show. In an exceptionally dignified, generous, and sometimes gently humorous speech, he not merely wished his successful rival well, in a convincing way, but also paid tribute to his personal qualities. And those qualities are indeed high among the reasons why his election by the Dail was welcomed personally by members from all the parties represented there.

The scene was televised and watched by large audiences throughout Ireland. Many of those who watched must have been a bit puzzled by what they saw. As Norah Owen, deputy leader of Fine Gael, expressed it in her speech putting John Bruton in nomination for prime minister, he "is not a media-driven politician." The Irish media don't like him and have consistently underestimated him. His immediate predecessor as leader of Fine Gael, Garret FitzGerald, had a naturally sunny personality and cultivated media people to good effect. In both these respects John Bruton is less like Garret than like Garret's predecessor, Liam Cosgrave, also a bete noire of the Irish media. Cosgrave always sounded like a man who felt it would be extremely sinful to give the public what it wants. Bruton is apt to sound and look the same way, especially on television. It must, therefore, have come as a surprise to the television audience to witness the esteem and affection in which John Bruton is held in the world of parliamentary politics, as distinct (usually) from the politics of the media. Bruton's parliamentary colleagues know from personal experience, over years, that he is a person whose word is his bond. And they also know that equation cannot be taken for granted in politics.

The new government has a lot going for it, quite apart from the apparently auspicious euphoria after the election. The Irish economy is in better shape than it has been for thirty years and still improving. The coalition partners are likely to show adequate respect for one another's susceptibilities, since the grisly recent fate of the Fianna Fail-Labour coalition is an adequate warning of what happens when such respect is denied, as it was by former Taoiseach Albert Reynolds. Some commentators are stressing the ideological gap they think will exist between Fine Gael and its left-wing partners, Labour and the Democratic Left. But a program of government has been agreed among the three parties that should be adequate for the next two years, and this is all that is required. And Labour and the Democratic Left are quite unlikely in practice to gang up against Fine Gael. The two left-wing parties will, after all, be contending against each other in the next general election for a significant but limited electoral resource: left-wing votes. Fine Gael will not be competing in that market: Fine Gael will be competing with Fianna Fail, and with realistic hopes of gaining some ground.

AS FAR as Anglo--Irish relations are concerned, John Major will find the new government as easy to deal with as its predecessor. Even a bit easier. All three of the new governmental partners are less disinclined than Fianna Fail to prepare the way for the removal of the territorial claim contained in Articles 2 and 3 of the Irish Constitution. All three are more inclined to give serious consideration to Unionist positions than any coalition with Fianna Fail in it would ever be.

Unfortunately, this does not mean that what is called "the peace process" is likely to prosper during 1995. There are two distinct negotiations, often loosely regarded as making up one peace process. There are the talks between the Dublin and London governments, based on the Downing Street Declaration. These will probably go smoothly enough under the new Dublin government, as under its predecessor, and will result in some document, a "Framework for Peace." But it is the other set of negotiations--between the British authorities and Sinn Fein, the IRA's political wing--that is much more likely to determine whether progress can be made from the present uneasy truce toward a real and lasting peace. And the prospects there look bleak as 1995 begins.

The real threat to what is called the peace process has almost nothing to do with whatever group of political parties forms the government in Dublin. The real threat--which will be about the same under the new government as it would have been under its predecessor--comes from the yawning gap between the expectations of Sinn Fein--IRA on the one hand and the British government on the other. Sinn Fein--IRA expects British capitulation, though it might accept this in installments. The Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness, on the eve of negotiations with British officials last month, declared: "We are Irish republicans, and we enter any talks with the clear aim of ending British jurisdiction in the Six Counties." McGuinness, Gerry Adams, and the other top Sinn Fein spokesmen have all stated unequivocally that until that "clear aim" is realized, Sinn Fein will not even ask the IRA to decommission any part of its weaponry.

Mr. Major, on the other hand, declared last week, after the end of the Northern Ireland investment talks, that "huge progress must be made toward the destruction of IRA arms and explosives before talks with Sinn Fein could move from an exploratory to a formal basis." Not much room for compromise there.

The Royal Ulster Constabulary estimates there is a 60 to 40 per cent chance that the IRA ceasefire will hold until Easter. Easter has been an ominous period in the Republican liturgical--political--military year since 1916. Shortly before Easter, an IRA convention will consider the results of the ceasefire. Some of these results are impressive, in terms of political and propaganda gains for Sinn Fein, mainly in the Republic and in the United States. But these will weigh very little, in the judgment of Republican militants, compared with failure to make progress in the direction of Sinn Fein--IRA's clear aim.

I will not prejudge the outcome of that IRA conference. But it is clear that in the run-up to that conference the IRA leadership, even if it still wants the ceasefire to hold, will be under pressure to show itself more militant through "the unarmed strategy" of mass demonstrations in Northern Ireland and in other ways. The cry of "peace process in danger" will be heard, and both the British and Irish governments are likely to be attacked by Sinn Fein, probably with considerable backing from Fianna Fail.

Sinn Fein--IRA does not care for any of the parties now in power. It distrusted the Labour party leader, Dick Spring, in the outgoing coalition and will distrust him even more in the new one. Fine Gael is, in the eyes of Sinn Fein--IRA, the old enemy, "the Free Staters" or "Blueshirts," the party of the Anglo--Irish Treaty of 1921. The Democratic Left is the heir of the Worker's Party, which is itself the heir of the "Official" Sinn Fein--IRA, the old Marxist IRA leadership from which the Catholic--nationalist Provisionals broke away in 1969--70. The DLs have broken with their paramilitary past, but for the Provos they remain "the stickies," an enemy force.

The new Dublin government can expect determined political assaults from Sinn Fein--IRA, probably early next year. It should be able to weather the storm: its internal cohesion, in relation to this range of issues, is bound to be good, since Sinn Fein--IRA hates all the coalition partners, for different reasons (although there are one or two Sinn Fein fellow-travelers in Labour). Fortunately, Sinn Fein itself has no seats in the Dail.

The British and Irish governments need to prepare to tighten, not relax, security in the coming year. Whatever the IRA convention may bring, the IRA is certain to be in a dangerous mood as Easter approaches.