Southland manufacturing jobs continue to fall - but more slowly.

Recently released January job figures for Los Angeles County indicate overall employment growth of 2.5 percent - but manufacturing, the longtime core of the Southland economy, continues to contract, albeit more slowly than in the first half of the decade.

There were 629,300 factory jobs in the county in January, down 300 from a year earlier but off nearly 200,000 from 1990.

Moreover, the sector of manufacturing that is growing is production of non-durable goods - garments, foodstuffs, paper bags and the like - in which wages are, generally speaking, lower than in the sector making durable products, such as airplanes, medical equipment and capital goods.

"The durable-goods industries have been through the ringer. The average wage in durable-goods manufacturing is $34,000, and the average in non-durable industries is $25,000. In apparel, which is growing, the official average is $17,000," said Jack Kyser, chief economist for the L.A. County Economic Development Corp.

The difference between aerospace and apparel is particularly stark. In 1993, the average aerospace worker made $48,931, while the typical textile worker made $17,462, reports Mark Drayse, director of research for the downtown-based Economic Roundtable.

Important differences

The comparison is important - apparel has replaced aerospace as the No. 1 industrial employer in the county.

Some wonder if a long-run revival for the Southland is under way if the manufacturing base - particularly the durable-goods sector - continues to erode.

"You could make a pointed argument - people are saying the job market is growing, but no one is extending that to look at hourly wages, the $5 an hour made in T-shirt factories vs. the $20 to $25 an hour made in aerospace," said Karl Nagel, Manhattan Beach-based consultant who performs feasibility studies for businesses.

Nagel questions the effects of lowered wages on retailing, apartment and property values and other industries which depend on consumer spending power.

Other economists and local observers say the decline in durable-goods manufacturing jobs is not too important - the economy is changing, and more are employed in new, high-tech or entertainment-related industries. Though the new high-tech companies are smaller, opportunities abound.

"It is not whether a factory is big or small, or heavy industry or light industry. It matters whether the factory is high value-added and high wage," said Joel Kotkin, author and lecturer at Pepperdine University. "The entertainment industry is paying good wages, and many high-tech and medical equipment firms are too. There are still more opportunities in Los Angeles than almost any other major American city."

Manufacturing vital

Most economists concur that manufacturing, in general, is vital to a regional economy.

Factories sell goods to other regions and countries, which brings money into the local economy. Industrial workers spend their wages on food, clothing and rent, boosting retailing and property values, while plant owners hire accountants and lawyers to keep the books straight. Warehouse workers and truckers get work too.

In theory, if industrial worker productivity rises, a decrease in factory line employment need not hurt a regional economy, assuming each worker produces more goods, which are correspondingly exported.

Also, a region can bring money in through tourism, by luring retirees (who draw on pensions and Social Security), or by taxing money, a la Sacramento or Washington, D.C.

But, for Los Angeles, manufacturing remains key, as tourism remains a small component of the overall economy, and the city is not a state or federal capital (which could tax money to pay public sector workers), and retirees are choosing more sylvan or desert climes.

For this reason, say economists, almost any manufacturing job is good for the region.

"In my view, the local economy is becoming more anemic, but I guess we have to be grateful for any (industrial) growth that we have," said Dan Flaming, economist with the Economic Roundtable.

Investments needed

Most economists argue that investments need to be made in non-durable manufacturing capital equipment to raise productivity, so that wages can follow upward too. "There are some examples in the apparel industry of computerization leading to higher productivity," said Goetz Wolff, UCLA professor.

As for revitalizing the Los Angeles economy, most economists interviewed called for supporting the industries which are already strong: Hollywood, electronics, trade and, to some extent, tourism.

"Obviously, you want to develop high-wage industries, and everyone wants to start the next Silicon Valley. But, to be realistic, we should probably support Hollywood - the (city tax break for) DreamWorks was a good idea - and we should get the Alameda Corridor (to speed freight between the local ports and downtown L.A.) done, and go after tourists," said Nagel.

None of the economists interviewed held out hope that the big, basic industries - the huge tire plants, the steelyards, the auto lines, the aluminum factories - would ever return to Los Angeles, or the high wages those industries offered.

"Big, heavy industry is not going into any major urban area in the United States," said Kotkin. "It's going overseas or into the South."