South Africa goes for Olympic gold.

In September this year, the International Olympic Committee will decide who will host the 2004 Olympic Games. History will be made if Cape Town, one of the strongest contenders, wins the award. The implications for both South Africa and Africa as a whole are enormous. But not everyone in South Africa is cheering for victory. TOM NEVIN presents this exclusive report.

If Cape Town wins the bid to become the first African city to host the Olympic Games, the eternal flame will journey across 30 African states to what was Nelson Mandela's prison home for 21 years, Robben Island. Here, it will burn during the Games in 2004 thereby marking the symbolism of the Olympic emblem's fifth ring, the African continent.

If sentiment holds any influence in the final award, recent events should see Cape Town walk away with gold. President Mandela's charisma was at its best when he met with members of the International Olympic Committee (IOC) in Cape Town, to evaluate the city as an Olympic venue.

"May I remind you," he remarked, "that I do have experience in running such games. The Robben Island summer games were always very successful. The grounds were a bit poor and the athletes' village was below Olympic standards but the 2004 Games will be very different. South Africa and her brothers and sisters across the continent are ready for the challenge. Today we wish to say to you, as directly as we can: Give us these games, we are ready for them."

The evaluation committee will have its work cut out for the next eight months. It has spent the last three travelling the world, inspecting the bids of 11 candidate cities which are vying for the 2004 Games. The contestants are Cape Town, Athens, Buenos Aires, Istanbul, Lille, Rio de Janeiro, Rome, San Juan, (Puerto Rico), Seville, St Petersburg and Stockholm.

On 7 March this year, the Selection College of the IOC will choose four or five finalist cities to compete in the election process. From March to September this year, IOC members will visit the final bidders for a last inspection before the final secret vote, on 7 September, to determine the overall winner. As Chairman of the IOC evaluation commission, Dr Thomas Bach explains, "Applying to host the Games means taking part in the toughest competition that the Olympic movement can offer." Cape Town is indeed, fast finding this to be the case.

The Cape Town 2004 Olympic Bid - Bidco - was created and mandated to operate until September this year when the IOC announces the successful candidate. To get that far the Cape Town committee has a budget of R86m. This breaks down into: Salaries (R14m), technical teams (R9m), marketing (R25m), travel (R15m), administration (R15m) and development and sports events (R8m).

On paper, Cape Town's hosting of the Games will bring in a gross profit of around R1.4bn. The Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA) estimates that the overall boost to the national economy provided by the Games is likely to amount to over R30bn between 1997 and 2006, at 1996 prices. Over 90,000 permanent jobs are likely to be generated with approximately 60% of the income gains and 50% of the employment gains benefiting regions other than the Western Cape, where the city is situated.

The total capital cost of staging the Games is estimated at some R7.5bn of which about half will come from the private sector. The remainder will be shared by different tiers of national, provincial and local government.

It was not easy to get the Government to put its hand so deeply into its pocket. Amid cries from detractors that the Games would hijack funds better spent on pressing social needs such as housing, health and education, the Cabinet had to be convinced that staging the Olympics would contribute to the country's overall growth and development. Moreover, it asserted that the bid must remain carefully aligned with the basic approach of the reconstruction and development programme (RDP).

A statement by the Cabinet noted: "Government sees the decision to fully support the bid as reinforcing South Africa's integration into the world community of nations. Moreover, key components such as tourism and foreign investment generated by the Games, accompanied by the world-wide attention of the Games itself, will show-case the economic and other opportunities offered by South Africa."

It was with almost exaggerated care and attention that Bidco addressed the perception that a Cape Town Olympics would benefit only the well-to-do. In its official policy statement, Bidco recognises the social and economic injustices of apartheid and has committed itself to ensuring that every aspect of the Olympic process contributes to the broader processes of national conciliation and redressing the imbalances of the past.

"As a developmental bid," it says, "we are committed to improving the quality of life of the people of the city, region, nation and sub-continent. Particular emphasis is placed on enabling communities which are most disadvantaged to participate in the Olympic process. The bid is focused on 'people development' - through training, staffing and economic empowerment."

The bid also contains an economic empowerment policy that offers at least 40% of all of its business transactions to commercial and professional enterprises from previously marginalised communities. The policy was drawn up after consultation with representative black business organisations. In spite of all that, not every Capetonian believes that the Games are the social and economic blessing that they are said to be.

A recent poll in the city discovered that 20% of respondents were not in favour of the Games being held in Cape Town. Although this constitutes a minority, this view was taken into careful account by the IOC fact-finding mission.

One such organisation is the Concerned Citizens for the Olympics (CCO). It does not believe Cape Town can afford to hold the Games. In its view the projected revenue has been over-estimated by 10% (R560m) and expenditure underestimated by 20% (R840m). Thus Bidco's figures are skewed by around R1.4bn, giving a break-even scenario. Another concern is that historically all host cities have lost money but, say Bidco's supporters, the facts show otherwise: Since the 1994 Los Angeles Games, host cities have made an operating surplus due to the huge revenues generated by television.

Another dissenting voice is Stop the 2004 Olympic Bid Forum. It is their contention that the Games will divert sorely needed government funds away from pressing social needs, especially housing. To which Bidco replies that even if Cape Town's bid fails in September, the Government will have spent R336m on infrastructure (in show-pieces for the visiting IOC inspection team): R250m upgrading the transport system and R86m on eight sports centres. That will not mean a lot to socially marginalised people but it is part of the overall socioeconomic development programme and in line with the RDP, it says.

The Development Action Group (DAG) has further concerns. Fundamentally it supports Cape Town's bid but worries that not enough transparency is being shown in the process of getting there.

"Why," asks DAG researcher Charlene Houston, "have two large venues, planned for construction if the bid is successful, been earmarked for private use after the Games? We are also particularly concerned that the State will sell prime land at less than its market value for Olympic venues because it believes it is a good project."

Who will foot the bill for the maintenance of facilities, she asks? "Will rates increase? Will the Government subsidise local authorities? These are all questions that remain unanswered and raise fears that there are hidden costs in the bid that the public is not aware of."

Leaving all these issues aside, what, realistically, are the chances that Cape Town will win the bid? Mr Sam Ramsamy, President of the National Olympic Committee of South Africa, who in the past has made international headlines over the issue of preventing South African born athletes, particularly Zola Budd, from participating in the Games, is optimistic about Cape Town's chances but stresses that several real politic battles within the Olympic movement still have to be won.

Mr Ramsamy says that while most African countries will support Cape Town's bid, the race will ultimately depend on how effectively IOC members from other continents can be won over. "There are 20 IOC votes in the African bloc," he says. "That is out of a total of 108. So it should be pretty obvious that we need to throw our net as wide as possible when it comes to international lobbying. We need to convince IOC members from other continents that Cape Town is the only place to host the event in 2004."

Doing so might present more problems than most envisage. Cape Town's strongest rival is Rome. The Italian bid is being actively supported by the President of the International Amateur Athletics Federation, Mr Primo Nebiolo, who is also one of the most influential members of the IOC.

Cape Town's Olympic Operating Budget 1997-2004 at 1996 prices in
millions of rand

REVENUE                                      5,602

Television & marketing                       2,366
International sponsors                         453
National sponsors                              724
Ticket sales                                   779
Other                                        1,280

OPERATING EXPENDITURE                        4,184

Media costs                                  1,407
Operations                                     345
Transport costs                                328
Security costs                                 269
Administration                                 714
Interest                                       462
Other                                          659

Operating surplus - 1,436

Less direct contributions from operating
surplus                                      1,342
Venues                                         776
Facilities maintenance                         250
Contingency fund                               316

Cape Town's Olympic Capital Budget

CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

Venues                                       1,887
Villages                                     1,143
Broadcast centres                              256
Transport                                      898
Airport                                        660
Bulk services                                  650
Land costs                                     248
Contingencies                                1,517

TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE                    7,259

OCOG (10%)                                     776
State (45%)                                  3,305
Private sector (35%)                         2,443
Local government (10%)                         735

"This is ultimately a process of making friends," he says. "There is a lot of goodwill internationally towards this country - the challenge to Cape Town and South Africa is to turn this into active support by showing that we are willing, ready and able to host an event of this magnitude".

Cape Town's capacity to host the 2004 Games is being examined under a microscope by the IOC's evaluation commission who will draw up a short-list in March. Most officials expect Cape Town to pass this first hurdle before beginning the long final sprint to achieving host status.

Bidco Chief Executive, Mr Chris Ball, is determined to ensure that if the Games come to Africa, they will go down in history as the most spectacular and efficient ever. He has his team have been poring over the organisation of the last Games, in Atlanta, in order to learn from both the successes and failures.

One of the loudest criticisms of the Atlanta Games was that the transport was chaotic and the media, in particular, had to spend hours getting to and from sports venues.

Can Cape Town avoid such mistakes? "The answer is an unequivocal yes!" says Mr Ball. "Our plans include a centralised media village and international broadcasting centre, located close to the proposed Cape Olympic Stadium. Dedicated transport lanes would ensure that the media don't become entangled in traffic snarl-ups.

"Atlanta's rapid rail and bus system was designed to cater for 200,000 people a day. Cape Town's rail system can carry four times that number. More significantly, our transport authorities plan to improve and upgrade it before the Olympic Games. The system would also benefit Cape Town in the long run".

He admitted however that the country's high crime rate will have to be seriously tackled if Cape Town is to meet the IOC's strict security requirements.

These are issues Bidco must address and resolve and they do so under the enthusiastic and benevolent patronage of the President.

"The Games will enormously enhance South Africa's interest and attraction throughout the world over the next 10 years. Ten years of vital importance for our future as we step out of the dark era of apartheid," Mr Mandela asserts. "It would be a jewel in the crown of our rainbow nation to host the 2004 Olympic Games."

Making the dream come true

The illustration on the opposite page is an artist's view of the proposed Olympic Complex. With the majestic Table Mountain rising in the background and the Indian and Pacific Oceans meeting on the coastline, Cape Town will provide perhaps the most spectacular setting in the history of the Olympic Games.

Wingfield (See plan overleaf) will be the location for the main Olympic Stadium, the rowing course, main swimming complex, handball venue and the athletes' and officials' village. The village will be a few minutes walking distance of the main Olympic stadium and within 50 minutes driving time of the furthest Olympic venue.

Culemborg, directly adjacent to Cape Town's city centre (see picture overleaf) will be the site for the main indoor hall, a fencing facility, the media village, the International Broadcasting centre and the Media Press Centre. The media village will have the capacity to accommodate 15,000 media personnel in 4,000 units. Culemborg is within 10 minutes driving time of Winfield and the main stadium.