Sort of friendly.

Has John McCain's campaign weakened the religious right's hold on the Republican Party, or did it only help to tighten the grip?

For Rich Tafel, Arizona senator John McCain's insurgent GOP presidential campaign is the godsend he had been praying for since 1990, when he assumed the helm of Log Cabin Republicans, a national gay lobbying group.

"McCain's strategy is the one we have been advocating for years," says Tafel. "He is preaching tolerance and reaching out to the middle of the electorate while keeping the religious right on the fringes. It has reinforced our message that gay rights are much more in the political mainstream than the GOP has ever under."

No matter who ends up the Republican nominee, McCain's upsets in the New Hampshire and Michigan primaries may represent a subtle shift in the GOP power base. Not only has McCain courted Log Cabin's support, but he's also succeeded in his quest for the presidency largely without the support of the religious right. Conservative Christians are estimated to be 30% or more of the GOP base in some states.

But Hastings Wyman, editor of Southern Political Report, says Tafel's optimism may be "premature." For one thing, Wyman says, "McCain himself has significant religious right support. McCain draws a lot of his support from independent voters, while the GOP is mostly staying with [Texas governor George W.] Bush. It is still a very right-wing party."

Indeed, when religious conservative leader Gary Bauer dropped out of the race and endorsed McCain in February, McCain welcomed the backing. The endorsement prompted a bitter internecine squabble, with Focus on the Family president James Dobson--who is Bauer's mentor--and televangelist Jerry Falwell accusing Bauer of, in Falwell's words, promoting policies that "dramatically counter the historic canons of conservatism and threaten the sovereignty and well-being of our nation."

The religious right started the presidential campaign in pragmatic mode, with leaders from Lou Sheldon, president of the Traditional Values Coalition, to Pat Robertson eschewing Bauer's long-shot candidacy in favor of the more centrist Bush. Ralph Reed, former executive director of Robertson's Christian Coalition, signed on as a chief adviser to Bush's campaign, which is headquartered in Austin, Tex. But religious conservative leaders have watched with trepidation as McCain has made inroads with moderate and independent voters who are often deeply suspicious of the religious right.

"McCain's success is a shot across the bow to religious conservatives," says Amy Walter, an editor of the Cook Political Report, an insider's guide to American politics. "It means that by picking up independent and crossover votes, you can succeed in Republican primaries in conservative states without the religious right's support. The fact that McCain is not beholden to the religious right appeals to a lot of moderate voters."

But if McCain's candidacy points to a time when a Republican candidate may succeed without the religious right's help, the Bush campaign underscores just how indebted the party is to Christian conservatives. Their support gave Bush his victory in South Carolina. Moreover, the campaign has given a new platform to Robertson, who has been actively supporting Bush's candidacy. Just prior to the Michigan primary, Robertson recorded a message, later telephoned to voters, accusing McCain of choosing as his campaign chairman a "vicious bigot who wrote that conservative Christians in politics are antiabortion zealots, homophobes, and would-be censors." Robertson was referring to former senator Warren Rudman, who characterized some Christian conservatives as such in his autobiography.

And even with McCain's claim to moderation, the causes dear to Log Cabin Republicans have fared little better than in past years. After the group met with McCain and lavished him with praise and more than $40,000 for his campaign last November, McCain rewarded its generosity by highlighting his resistance to gay rights at every opportunity. Both McCain and Bush have repeatedly stated their support for "don't ask, don't tell" and expressed opposition to same-sex marriage.

Indeed, in a blow to Log Cabin, on February 24 McCain said that he supports Proposition 22, a California ballot measure that would ban recognition of same-sex unions. In response to a question at a town hall meeting that day, McCain first said he opposed the measure, also known as the Knight initiative, but when pressed by reporters said that he had misunderstood the question. McCain voted for the Defense of Marriage Act, a 1996 federal bill banning recognition of same-sex marriage.

"We were heartbroken," Kevin Ivers, a Log Cabin spokesman, says. "We had worked for a long time with McCain to make the argument that opposing the Knight initiative was entirely consistent with DOMA."

Sometimes McCain's remarks are bizarre, to say nothing of inconsistent. On the Straight Talk Express, his campaign bus, McCain told reporters that he can identify gays and lesbians "by behavior and by attitudes." In February McCain told an audience in North Augusta, S.C., that he supports "don't ask, don't tell" because homosexuality is a "lifestyle I don't approve of." At the same time, McCain said that he can imagine the day when a gay candidate could become president.

Tafel insists that McCain's puzzling remarks don't bother his organization. "Gay Republicans have different criteria than gay Democrats," he says. "We have been in the middle of a civil war in the party for a long time, and what we are looking for is inclusion. It's McCain's willingness to listen and the openness of a McCain presidency that are so appealing to us."

McCain, like Bush, appears comfortable with and even supportive of the gays and lesbians around him. For instance, McCain's campaign boasts more openly gay officials than any other GOP presidential campaign in history. The campaign's general counsel, Trevor Potter, is an out gay man who has lobbied for McCain at gay political events. Rep. Jim Kolbe (R-Ariz.), who chairs McCain's congressional committee, is openly gay, as is Tempe, Ariz., mayor Neil Giuliano, who cochairs Mayors for McCain. Arizona state legislator Steve May, a Republican, has also endorsed the Arizona senator, even though McCain has refused to intervene on May's behalf to block his discharge from the Army reserves for being gay.

In the February 14 issue of Time, journalist Michael Lewis recounts standing with McCain when a reporter called to ask about critics of Giuliano, who had just come out as gay. McCain "went on ad nauseam about what a good man the mayor of Tempe was and how he personally didn't give a damn about his sexual orientation and neither should anyone else."

Giuliano says he has supported the candidate since 1982, when Giuliano was student body president at Arizona State University and McCain was running for Congress. "I've known McCain" and his wife, Cindy, for nearly a decade, he says. "I've been to their house for dinner, and I've hosted them in the skybox" for Arizona Cardinals football games. "I've never felt anything but complete and total support from them."

McCain fits neatly in the Arizona tradition of feisty maverick conservatives, exemplified by the late senator Barry Goldwater. Near the end of his life, after retiring from the U.S. Senate, Goldwater became an ardent gay rights supporter.

So far, of course, McCain has not gone out on a limb for gay rights, voting against the federal Employment Non-Discrimination Act and a hate-crimes bill. But Giuliano says the lesson of Goldwater's conversion has not been lost on the senator. "He saw what Barry did, and it registered with him," he says. "I can't say for sure whether he will go as far as Barry did, but it's possible. He's clearly willing to listen, so it's all up to us to convince him that we are right."