Solving the Y2K dilemma.

One issue that has received a lot of attention in the press in the past few months is the Year 2000 computer dilemma, or Y2K problem. The arrival of the year 2000 may pose some problems for your camp, as well as the vendors and other businesses you rely on to conduct your operation.

Currently, most businesses rely on systems and equipment that use microchip technology. Many computers (hardware) and computer programs (software) do not presently have the ability to correctly recognize and properly process data and/or information in the year 2000 and beyond. The impending risk is that these systems will breakdown or malfunction. There is great uncertainty about what will happen when equipment and programs that have not been made ready for the year 2000 try to process "00." Will the system think it is 1900 and crash? Will data be lost? No one knows for sure.

A Result of Poor Planning

Perhaps it was poor planning that lead engineers in the early years of computer development to use only two digits to represent the year in computer programming language. More than likely, it was a matter of expediency to save money and space. Computers, until fairly recently, have been so big they often filled entire rooms. These "main frames" are at risk, as well as individual PCs and PCs connected by a local area network (LAN).

Complacency seems to have played a part in creating this problem. Once the issue and risks were identified, the scope was most likely misjudged. As a result, there was no sense of urgency; the year 2000 seemed a long way off. With the approach of the millennium, however, many businesses are scrambling to fix their computer systems.

What Are the Consequences?

The impact from failure to modify your hardware and software so it is year 2000 compliant differs from business to business. The consequences depend somewhat on how many and what kind of computers, software, and other equipment you use in your business. Some experts predict certain businesses will fail because they did not address this issue in time.

The risk of breakdown and malfunction is real for camps and exists with computers and software used by camps along with any device that uses microchip technology. Other equipment potentially at risk includes answering machines, fax machines, pagers, telephone switches, voice mail systems, copiers and printers, to name a few. The consequences of inaction are hard to foresee. It is not likely that the Y2K problem will put any camps out of business, but, it is possible to imagine some situations that can cause disruption in service and a financial drain.

A Possible Scenario

Suppose you go into your office on January 1, 2000, turn on your computer, and nothing happens. You try your fax machine and copier. Same problems, nothing happens. You now know you have a problem. One approach might be to handle things manually when the office opens for business the next day. You may have to pay overtime or hire temporary workers to manually process transactions previously handled by your computer system. Customer service might suffer, especially if you have camper prospect names and addresses on a database that is no longer accessible. Likewise, if your financial records are on your computer, you might be frustrated, have to recreate some records, and incur some extra expense from sending bills to campers by hand, for example. As a practical matter, the solution to this problem may be to buy new equipment - new computers and new versions of your software that are year 2000 compliant. Hopefully, you will be able to transfer your databases and other information and only suffer through a temporary inconvenience.

The Wait-and-See Approach

If you decide to take this wait-and-see approach, here are some things to consider. How much will it cost to replace everything you need? Will you budget for it or pay for it out of current income? Suppose a lot of organizations decide to adopt the wait-and-see strategy. Will there be an adequate supply of the hardware and software you need in your area?

Camps probably have less risk of catastrophic financial consequences than do insurance companies, banks, airlines, and stockbrokers. But camps operated by agencies and religious and nonprofit organizations probably have the greatest risk among camping organizations because of the size, scope, and year-round nature of their operations. The larger your organization, the more complex this issue becomes.

A Better Way

If you haven't considered the possibility your camp computer and software may not operate on January 1, 2000, take some time to do so immediately. Put together a comprehensive plan for assessing and managing the risks and exposure to your camp from the year 2000 issue. Follow the same risk-management principles and discipline you have developed and applied to your facilities and program activities. Pick a staff member to be the project director. This person should be knowledgeable about your data processing and computer system needs. The project director should become the expert in your organization on the Y2K problem and solution.

Take an inventory

Begin by taking an inventory of equipment and software. Be sure to include the software that was installed on your computer when you bought it and anything you have added since then. Identify the vendor's names, addresses, and telephone numbers. Make sure you know the model numbers and serial numbers of your hardware, and the versions of the software you are using.

Contact vendors

Contact your vendors, if you used one to buy your office system, and if necessary, contact the companies that manufactured your hardware and software. If you use one of the customized operating programs designed for camps, contact the maker directly to determine the status of their Year 2000 compliance.

Following are some questions you might ask:

* Is this product Year 2000 compliant? If it is not, what are you doing to provide support to make it compliant? When will this be ready?

* If the product will not be modified and the only solution offered is replacement when will the Year 2000 compliant product be ready and how much will it cost?

* If the product will be modified, will it be a permanent solution? Some modifications may be temporary. How much will the modification cost?

* Will the vendor certify or warrant Year 2000 compliance in writing?

Implement Your Plan

Once you have identified the potential problems and solutions, implement your plan. But before the moment of truth arrives, make sure you test the equipment and the software appropriately. Once satisfied, you can proceed with confidence. Minimize surprises by gathering information about the problem and reducing uncertainty by devising suitable solutions in time to be tested. Avoid accepting risk blindly, and manage risk with your eyes wide open. The Y2K problem is real and just around the corner. Don't delay.

Internet Resources on the Year 2000 Problem 

* Year 2000 site containing articles, news, vendor information, and links: www.year2000.com

* Information Technology Association of America's (ITAA) Year 2000 site. ITAA has a Year 2000 program for certifying Year 2000 service providers: wwitaa.org/year2000.htm

* IBM's Year 2000 web site: www.ibm.com/IBM/year2000/

* President's Council on the Year 2000 Conversion: www.y2k.gov

Ed Schirick is vice president and division manager of Frontier Insurance Group in Rock Hill, New York, where he heads their CampPRO insurance program. He is a chartered property casualty underwriter and a certified insurance counselor. Contact Ed at 800-724-3315 with your risk management inquiries.