Solar's bright prospects turn on Southland firms.

Solar power may yet see sunny days in the United States, and wide open horizons around the world, if the blue-sky plans of several Southland makers of solar cells or systems come to light.

At the core of new optimism in solar power: cheaper ways to make solar panels, and the burgeoning costs of building whole new power plants.

"With our current, lowered costs, there are now a tremendous number of applications for solar power," says David Roubideaux, operations manager at Torrance-based Amonix Inc., a maker of solar power systems. "We won't replace fossil fuels, but we will be an adjunct."

Oil prices have softened since the 1970s, undermining prospects for all varieties of alternative energy products and services.

But solar power was, and is, an industry in its dawn, with major improvements in costs and efficiencies being made every several years.

Now, Amonix has produced a working solar power system which converts into electricity 20 percent of the sunlight that strikes it -- up from a previous record of 15 percent, and roughly double the 10 percent to 12 percent conversion factor on many working photovoltaic systems (a system is photovoltaic if it converts sunlight to electricity, as opposed to passive systems, which use to sun directly to warm water or air).

Moreover, the 12-employee Amonix does not use exotic materials or demanding production techniques to make its solar panels -- indeed, the same factories worldwide which produce silicon computer chips can make silicon solar chips for Amonix. The company has the chips made for it to specifications.

Cost reductions

To further reduce costs, the Amonix system employs Fresnel lenses (a type of magnifying lens) to concentrate sunlight upon the silicon solar wafer, which in turn produces electricity. The Fresnel lens reduces the need for silicon, the expensive part of the chip.

The Amonix system points a large plate of solar cells, about 40 square feet, at the sun as it arcs across the sky. The system is relatively large, and requires a plot of ground 38 feet by 48 feet. It is not intended for home use.

In the next several weeks, engineers in Tempe, Ariz., working for Arizona Public Service Co., will hook-up a 20-kilowatt system built by Amonix, the first of six sites to built around the country in 1995. Another, smaller system has already been installed in Georgia, and is up and running.

But even with all the improvements, Amonix's product still can't defeat fossil fuels in most head-to-head comparisons.

Traditional power plants can produce electricity at 2 cents per kilowatt-hour (enough power to light 10 light bulbs, at 100 watts each, for an hour).

Even considering larger production runs and economies of scale, Amonix can only drive solar costs down to 5 cents to 6 cents per kilowatt-hour, said Roubideaux.

Still, the new, improved solar cells make sense for many applications. Any time there is a remote location requiring additional wiring and installation, solar power becomes more attractive.

Global possibilities

All across the Third World are remote villages far from any power infrastructure. "This technology can be installed now for rural electrification in rapidly developing countries of the world located on the global 'sunbelt:' Mexico, India, China and Brazil, among other nations," says Vahan Garboushian, founder of Amonix.

And large power networks approaching peak capacity might do well to consider solar to get them over hot spots.

"The beauty is, right when power demand is highest (in the middle of a hot day), from air-conditioning and office buildings, that is when solar power can produce the most," notes Roubideaux.

Further, solar is clean -- and while traditional utilities do not factor the cost of pollution into their rate structures, concerns about acid rain and other fossil fuel-related maladies may cause pollution to be priced into utility bills. That would further brighten solar's future, says Roubideaux.

Power problems

Unfortunately, Amonix is probably not on the verge of another improvement in solar chip design or production that will cut costs in a big way, said Roubideaux. "The theoretical maximum efficiency for a solar chip is 28 percent," he says.

That means the physical properties of silicon and other materials in the chip, even in a perfect world, could only extract 28 percent of the energy available in sunlight.

Amonix chips already extract 26 percent of the power available, which is reduced to 20 percent by other unavoidable inefficiencies in the system before the power is transmitted. Improvements of a few percent in efficiency might be possible.

In other words, what Amonix and others are doing is as about good as its going to get for this kind of solar power.

Players line up

Nevertheless, solar power is drawing the interest of major-league Japanese investors, who have purchased a majority stake in the Hawthorne-based Solec International, which has been producing solar chips since the mid-1970s.

Japanese giants Sumitomo Corp. and Sanyo have taken 36 percent and 54 percent stakes, respectively, in Solec, citing the worldwide promise of solar power.

Solec has a somewhat different approach to solar cells than Amonix. Solec also makes photovoltaic systems, but it makes them small, such as 23 inches by 51 inches. One or several panels can be installed on top of ordinary homes and businesses.

The Solec solar collectors do not track the sun, do not use magnifying lenses, but are simply mounted pointing south, pointing up in the sky at a 45-degree angle.

In something of a major coup, Solec recently inked a deal with Sanyo to supply a part of a huge order in which 15,000 rooftop solar home systems will be installed in Japan.

"Others are talking about what they might be able to do if conditions are right, or if they can mass produce. Right now we are hiring workers to produce goods for export to Japan," says Ishaq Shahryar, founder and president of Solec. The firm's employment has grown to more than 100 from 70 in the last year, and more hiring is expected, he says.

"It is very economical to ship from Los Angeles to Japan," he adds.

Japan must import almost all its oil, and so as a national policy it is converting over to solar when feasible, says Shahryar.

Yet another approach to solar power is being taken by Inglewood-based International Solar Electric Technology, which is primarily a research firm.

International Solar is investigating "thin film" photovoltaic systems, in which ordinary window glass has a layer of silicon and other materials, only a few microns thick, sprayed on it. The expense of the silicon is limited because it is sprayed on so thinly.

The advantage of such systems is that they can be made very large, says Andrew Minnick, process engineer at International Solar.

"This is viewed as the most viable way to reduce the cost of photovoltaic systems," says Minnick.

Enron Corp., the nation's largest natural gas company, has proposed building a 100-megawatt thin film system in the Nevada desert.