So-called reforms in welfare will add to ranks of homeless. (Commentary).

As you ponder the likely consequences of the proposed state budget cuts, take a drive through skid row. Witness the Third World country growing right in our midst. Note in particular the influx of homeless families that is overwhelming emergency shelter resources there, with their young children spilling into the street to play amidst dope pushers, prostitutes, dirty needles, and parolees.

Many of these families are the early casualties of welfare reform, yet they are a modest precursor of what's to come as the county braces for the impact of 5-year time limits reducing welfare checks for thousands of families who are barely able to make rent as it is.

State budget cuts threaten dramatically to reduce welfare to work programs and child care support that these families desperately need to find employment to replace the income they are about to lose--all in the midst of a faltering national economy.

In early 1998 Los Angeles confronted a similar phenomenon--the first historic imposition of time limits on the welfare program of last resort for single adults known as General Relief. In 1997, Public Counsel warned in an op-ed for the Business Journal that cutting GR risked precipitating a "homeless explosion" because of the number of individuals who relied upon GR to keep themselves housed in Single Room Occupancy units.

It is painful to witness what we feared come to pass--to the point that L.A. now has the largest and most unmanageable homeless population on skid row ever. Now we are at an even more critical juncture with welfare reform about to cut benefits for thousands of L.A. County families that could generate sprawling numbers of homeless families.

The theory behind the GR time limits was no different than what's behind impending cuts to welfare for families (known as CAL-WORKS). Both assume that these cuts should create an incentive for the affected individuals to more aggressively pursue work opportunities.

The problem with this theory is that those affected are chronically unemployable and underemployed for reasons often beyond their control. Most are single women who desperately need childcare, but find themselves on the county's long waiting lists for such assistance. More than one third of these individuals suffer from a severe mental health problem that interferes with their ability to get or keep a job, according to the General Accounting Office.

Between 25 percent and 57 percent of women on welfare have symptoms of severe depression, such as chronic lethargy, confusion, despondency, and irritability--traits too often disparaged by welfare caseworkers and employers as character defects rather than illness. Many of these women are also fleeing domestic violence. The Taylor Institute reports that 30 percent of women on welfare were victims of domestic violence within the past year.

Do such problems mean these individuals are unable to work? Of course not, as they'll be the first to tell you. But without help overcoming these problems, welfare recipients are not likely to find a steady job in L.A.'s competitive job market. The welfare cuts are certain to push families barely making it on their current welfare check ($679/month for a family of three) toward evictions and homelessness.

Survival strategies

Once homeless, their children's education is disrupted, as are ties to friends and relatives. Summing up the dehumanizing experiences of moving for three years from shelter to shelter, an 11-year-old girl said desolately, "I died three years ago." Such childhood experiences of homelessness dramatically increase one's likelihood of becoming homeless as an adult, according to an extensive Rand study.

Homelessness increases the odds that parents will become chronically unemployed and abandon hope of living a normal life as contributing taxpayers. The lack of shelter itself becomes a major barrier to employment.

If children become endangered because they are living on the streets, Child Protective Services must take custody of them at a cost to taxpayers of $2,000 to $15,000 per month per child. While none of us relish the idea of raising taxes, the alternative is to reap these severe long-term economic costs downstream--not to mention the costs to our collective welfare, and conscience too, as a society seeking to be just.

Paul Freese Jr. is Director of Litigation & Advocacy at Public Counsel Law Center. Sacha Klein-Martin is a social work intern researching the impact of welfare reform.