Smith, Hays face off at Vermont forum on Cuba policy.

Wayne Smith and Dennis Hays are on opposite sides of the spectrum when it comes to U.S. policy toward Cuba, but they agree on at least two things: No. 1, there will be no change in Cuba until President Fidel Castro dies, and No. 2, his successor, Raul Castro, will implement economic reforms, but keep a firm hold on political activity.

Smith is a former U.S. State Department official-turned-academic who is affiliated with Johns Hopkins University and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Among other things, he served as head of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana from 1979 to 1982.

Hays is a former U.S. ambassador to Suriname and Cuba desk officer at the State Department. He's also served as a top official of the Cuban American National Foundation and is now in the private sector.

Both men spoke about prospects for change in Cuba at an Oct. 26 forum in Burlington, Vt. The event--attended by about 130 people--was co-sponsored by the Vermont Institute on the Caribbean, the Vermont Council on World Affairs and the Vermont Global Trade Partnership.

Smith, who opposes the decades-old U.S. embargo of Cuba and efforts to topple the regime, said he traveled to the island in mid-October and found no one who expects the ailing Fidel to return to power.

"Chances are Raul Castro will be in power relatively soon, and we will see real change," he said. But since Fidel opposes economic reforms, nothing will happen until after he dies, he said. "Who knows when that will be? It could be another year."

While Smith doesn't anticipate a return to capitalism, he does expect a greater role in the economy by small businesses run by Cuban entrepreneurs.

Private enterprise was allowed to operate starting in the early '90s and flourished before being shut down again by Fidel Castro. "That's what Cubans want," said Smith. "They are very entrepreneurial. They know what needs to be done to jump-start the economy."

Of any opening toward political freedom, he said: "The political changes will have to come later."

Hays said Raul and others poised to assume power admire the current Chinese system that promotes private enterprise while limiting political freedom.

"That's a very attractive model for the people around Raul," he said, "but as long as Fidel is breathing, nothing is going to change."

For now, he said, the United States should continue the embargo and other policies aimed at denying support to the Castro regime. Anyone seeking to help Cuba should work directly with the people, not the government, he said.

"Stand with the oppressed, not the oppressors," said Hays, insisting that he's against allowing tourists to visit Cuba because tourist ventures cooperate with the regime to guarantee stability and thus profits. Tourism "doesn't spread the benefits of democracy to the Cubans," he said.

Smith, on the other hand, thinks U.S. policy toward Cuba is counterproductive.

"Nothing that we do helps bring about positive change in Cuba," he said, urging the Bush administration to relax travel restrictions to the island and start a low-key dialogue with Cuban officials, beginning with assurances that it does not intend to overthrow the Castro regime.

While Smith said he supports a more open society in Cuba, he warned that as long as the White House keeps putting Havana on the defensive, "you won't have an atmosphere for liberalization."