Slow growth forecast: a 2.1% increase in metal casting shipments is forecast in 2009, while a long-term gain of 1% per year is projected to 2018.[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]
The current economic recession is expected to last through the middle of 2009. The rebound rebound (rē´bownd),
n/v 1. a recovery from illness.
n 2. an outbreak of fresh reflex activity after withdrawal of a stimulus
rebound adjective following the recession could increase casting demand over the next two years. Ongoing interviews reinforce earlier forecasts that call for a growth in casting demand in 2010 for an overall growth of 6%, However. gains in imports are forecast to keep domestic casting shipments at a minimum in many market sectors. Imports of raw castings and semi-finished and completed cast parts are forecast to reach 3.162 million tons (Transparent Optical Networking Services) A marketing term for providing dark fiber to a customer. The customer is responsible for generating the transmission signal and interpreting it at the other end. See dark fiber. in 2009.
U.S. shipments of metal castings Metal casting
A metal-forming process whereby molten metal is poured into a cavity or mold and, when cooled, solidifies and takes on the characteristic shape of the mold. are forecast to increase 2,1% to 12.826 million tons in 2009. Sales are expected to rise 3% to $32.6 billion in 2009. The higher growth rate in sales reflects the change of the product mix to higher priced light metal castings in vehicles.
Technological and material changes are to continue in affect casting shipments and cause significant changes in the demand and supply picture. Eight metals continue to replace iron castings in motor vehicle applications, causing the closure and reduction in capacity of many iron casting operations, and aluminum demand and supply numbers are rising to new peak levels in both diecasting and permanent mold mold, name for certain multicellular organisms of the various classes of the kingdom Fungi, characteristically having bodies composed of a cottony mycelium. The colors of molds are caused by the spores, which are borne on the mycelium. operations.
Production of light vehicles in 2008 decreased to the lowest total since the recession of 1991. A rise of another 160,000 vehicles is predicted for 2009. This is expected to increase shipments of ductile iron Ductile iron, also called ductile cast iron or nodular cast iron, is a type of cast iron invented in 1943 by Keith Millis. While most varieties of cast iron are brittle, ductile iron is much more ductile, as the name implies. by 3,4% and aluminum by 4.3% for cars and trucks produced in the U.S. in 2009. But with the poor U.S. economy threatening the survival of the Big Three. car imports--particularly small passenger cars--are expected to increase, reducing the market share of domestic light vehicle manufacturers. Imports are now 23.5% of light vehicle sales--up from 21.7% the previous year--and could reach 25% in the near future.
Total ductile iron shipments are forecast to continue to grow at a long-term Long-term
Three or more years. In the context of accounting, more than 1 year.
1. Of or relating to a gain or loss in the value of a security that has been held over a specific length of time. Compare short-term. rate of 1.6% per year, while aluminum casting shipments are expected to rise 2.4% per year. Total gray iron shipments are forecast to gain 1.9% in 2009 and grow 0.1% per year to 2018. Steel casting Steel casting is a manufacturing process in which molten metal is poured into a mold, allowed to solidify within the mold, and then the mold is broken and the solid piece is taken out. shipments are forecast to drop slightly in 2009 and decline 0.4% per year through 2018.
Following is a look at the forecast of casting demand by the major end-use industries for metal castings.
In 2008, the domestic production of light vehicles was at the lowest level since 1991 at 8,540,000 vehicles. Light truck production was at its lowest level in 25 years at 4,700,000 vehicles.
Forecast--Gray iron shipments for light vehicles are forecast to continue declining annually to 765,000 tons by 2009. The average weight of gray iron per light vehicle is forecast to drop to 180 lbs. in the next three years. Only 25% of engine blocks and 2% of engine heads are expected to be produced in gray iron in 2009. The recovery of truck production in the second half of 2010 is expected to spur an increase in gray iron casting shipments of 300,000 tons. Compacted graphite graphite (grăf`īt), an allotropic form of carbon, known also as plumbago and black lead. It is dark gray or black, crystalline (often in the form of slippery scales), greasy, and soft, with a metallic luster. iron casting shipments are forecast to reach 52,000 tons in 2009.
Ductile iron shipments for consumption in light vehicles are expected to increase 3.5% to 762,000 tons in 2009, with a long-term gain Long-term gain
A profit on the sale of a capital assets held longer than 12 months, and eligible for long-term capital gains tax treatment. of 0.8% per year, despite the conversion of suspension and differential parts to light metals (Chem.) the metallic elements of the alkali and alkaline earth groups, as sodium, lithium, calcium, magnesium, etc.; also, sometimes, the metals of the earths, as aluminium.
See also: Metal . Ductile iron shipments for medium to heavy trucks and trailers are forecast to decline to 240,000 tons as truck production remains low. Steel castings in trucks and military vehicles Military vehicles include all land combat and transportation vehicles, excluding rail-based, which are designed for or are in significant use by military forces.
See also list of armoured fighting vehicles. are forecast to decline at a rate of 7.2% per year in the long term.
Aluminum casting weight a weight that turns a balance when exactly poised.
- B. Trumbull.
See also: Casting per vehicle is forecast to rise to 260 lbs. in 2009. Casting shipments are expected to increase 4.3% in 2009 to 1.02 million tons and grow to 1.36 million tons by 2018.
Internal Combustion Engines Internal combustion engine
A prime mover, the fuel for which is burned within the engine, as contrasted to a steam engine, for example, in which fuel is burned in a separate furnace.
The diesel engine market consumes 90% of the gray and ductile iron castings shipped in this classification. The small gasoline gasoline or petrol, light, volatile mixture of hydrocarbons for use in the internal-combustion engine and as an organic solvent, obtained primarily by fractional distillation and "cracking" of petroleum, but also obtained from natural gas, by segment consumes 90% of the aluminum casting shipments.
Forecast---Shipments of gray iron castings are expected to increase in 2009 to 440,000 tons and at an average annual rate of 1.6% as imports increase. The lack of non-captive gray iron block and head capacity in the U.S. necessitates offshore metalcasting facilities to supply 50% of the gray iron engine casting demand. Shipments of compacted graphite iron engine castings are forecast to be 54,000 tons in 2009 and grow at 5,000 tons per year in the long term.
Despite an increase in imports, conversion of gray iron, steel and malleable iron (Metal.) iron sufficiently pure or soft to be capable of extension under the hammer; also, specif., a kind of iron produced by removing a portion of the carbon or other impurities from cast iron, rendering it less brittle, and to some extent malleable. applications to ductile iron has spurred growth in the short and long terra See tera. . Ductile iron casting shipments are forecast to grow to 112,000 tons by 2010, a rise of 1.9% from 2008.
Shipments of carbon and low alloy steel Low alloy steel is steel alloyed with other elements, usually molybdenum, manganese, chromium, vanadium, silicon, boron or nickel, in amounts of up to 10% by weight to improve the hardenability of thick sections. castings used in the turbine turbine, rotary engine that uses a continuous stream of fluid (gas or liquid) to turn a shaft that can drive machinery.
A water, or hydraulic, turbine is used to drive electric generators in hydroelectric power stations. and turbine generator generator, in electricity, machine used to change mechanical energy into electrical energy. It operates on the principle of electromagnetic induction, discovered (1831) by Michael Faraday. industries are forecast to grow 0.5% per year from 16,000 tons in 2008 to 20,000 tons in 2018.
Aluminum castings are forecast to increase from 119,000 tons in 2008 to 124,000 tons by 2018.
Agricultural Implement Manufacturing
Aided by an increase in four-wheel four-wheel
1. Having or running on four wheels.
2. Of or relating to four-wheel drive.
Adj. 1. four-wheel - of or relating to vehicles with four wheels; "a four-wheel drive"
four-wheeled tractor tractor, in agriculture, vehicle used to pull such equipment as plows, cultivators, and mowers; to power stationary devices such as saws and winches; and to push snowplows and earth-moving implements. production, farm machinery sales are expected to grow 1% in 2009, with a long-term annual gain of 1%.
Forecast--Gray iron casting shipments are forecast to decrease from 318,000 tons in 2008 to 300,000 tons by 2010. Utilization utilization,
n 1. the extent to which a given group uses a particular service in a specified period. Although usually expressed as the number of services used per year per 100 or per 1000 persons eligible for the service, utilization rates may be of capacity in 2009 is expected to increase to 84%.
Ductile iron casting shipments are forecast to continue to replace gray iron, malleable iron and steel and achieve a short-term Short-term
Any investments with a maturity of one year or less.
1. Of or relating to a gain or loss on the value of an asset that has been held less than a specified period of time. growth of 2% in 2009, following a 5% loss in shipments in 2008 caused by an estimated 8% drop in tractor sales. A forecast 0.8% long-term growth puts casting shipments at 168,000 tons in 2018.
Construction Machinery & Equipment
The casting forecast for construction machinery and equipment is based on growth in housing starts, building construction and public works public works
Construction projects, such as highways or dams, financed by public funds and constructed by a government for the benefit or use of the general public.
Noun 1. , including highways, airports, and water and sewer SEWER. Properly a trench artificially made for the purpose of carrying water into the sea, river, or some other place of reception. Public sewers are, in general, made at the public expense. Crabb, R. P. Sec. 113. projects.
Forecast--Shipments of gray iron castings are forecast to decline in 2009 to 261,000 tons and fall 0.6% per year to 245,000 tons in 2018. The predicted low growth rate is due to the expected conversion of many parts to ductile iron. With captive captive
said of naturally wild or feral animals kept in captivity for educational and scientific investigation with no attempt being made to domesticate them. tonnage TONNAGE, mar. law. The capacity of a ship or vessel.
2. The act of congress of March 2, 1799, s. 64, 1 Story's L. U. S. 630, directs that to ascertain the tonnage of any ship or vessel, the surveyor, &c. at 50,000, the forecast demand/supply ratio is 0.92.
Ductile iron castings are forecast to decline slightly in 2009 before a small rebound to 225,000 tons in 2010. Austempered ductile iron is replacing steel forgings in wear resistant and high strength applications. Imports of 35,000 tons--15% of demand--are forecast for 2009.
Steel casting consumption is forecast to decline 0.6% annually due to replacement with ferritic ductile iron in specific applications.
Mining Machinery & Equipment
Shipments of mining machinery are expected to increase 1.5% in 2009 based on increases in mine production and mining machinery exports. Exports are close to 50% of the total shipments and 2.5 times imports.
Forecast--Steel casting usage is forecast to grow slightly in 2009 from 106,000 tons in 2008 to 108,000 tons in 2009 and 2010. The major growth is manganese steel Man`ga`nese´ steel
1. Cast steel containing a considerable percentage (10-14) of manganese, which makes it very hard and tough and highly resistant to wear. See Alloy steel, above.
Noun 1. applications, which are forecast to grow to 24,000 tons in 2009, and wear resistant and abrasive abrasive, material used to grind, smooth, cut, or polish another substance. Natural abrasives include sand, pumice, corundum, and ground quartz. Carborundum (silicon carbide) and alumina (aluminum oxide) are important synthetically produced abrasives. resistant parts, which are forecast to grow to 12,000 tons. A slight growth in carbon and low alloy steel casting from 67,000 to 68,000 tons is forecast.
Oil Field Equipment
A 3% increase is expected in 2009, followed by equivalent increases in subsequent years.
Forecast---Continued loss in oil prices could lower activity in oil field equipment in 2009 and cause a decrease in shipments of ductile iron. Replacement equipment is expected to contribute to the increase in demand. A long-term annual growth rate of 1.3% is forecast.
Steel casting shipments are expected to see a short-term gain Short-term gain (or loss)
A profit or loss realized from the sale of securities held for less than a year that is taxed at normal income tax rates if the net total is positive. in 2009; however, some substitution Substitution
put her own son in place of Orestes; her son was killed and Orestes was saved. [Gk. Myth.: Zimmerman, 32]
robber freed in Christ’s stead. [N.T.: Matthew 27:15–18; Swed. Lit. of ductile iron is expected to lower shipments 1.4% per year to 40,000 tons in 2018.
Valves & Fittings
Valve valve, device for controlling the flow of fluids (liquids and gases). Valves vary in construction and size depending upon their function. Some are classified according to their method of operation or design, e.g. shipments should increase through 2010. The strongest demand is expected to come from the energy-related industry sector, such as the growing chemical and power generation industries.
Forecast--Gray iron valve castings are forecast to decrease from 230,000 tons in 2008 to 200,000 tons in 2018. Supply capacity has decreased to 336,000 tons in the U.S., indicating a potential supply surplus of 23%.
Despite the increase in imports, ductile iron casting shipments are expected to increase 3% in the short terra based on pipeline and water distribution growth, with a long-term annual rise of 1.2% per year.
Malleable iron casting shipments are forecast to decrease from 36,000 tons in 2008 to 22,000 tons in 2018. Carbon and low alloy steel castings are forecast to decline 16% in the next 10 years to 52,000 tons. However, demand for corrosion resistant and high alloy alloy (ăl`oi, əloi`) [O. Fr.,=combine], substance with metallic properties that consists of a metal fused with one or more metals or nonmetals. steel valves is forecast to spur growth to 32,000 tons in 2010 and 37,000 tons in 2018.
Copper-based alloy castings are expected to rise 2.1% in the next two years despite imports of 27,000 tons.
Forecast--Ductile iron shipments, which dropped to an estimated 1.9 million tons in 2009, are forecast to rise slightly to 2 million tons by 2010 based on growth in housing starts and construction activity. Substitution of PVC PVC: see polyvinyl chloride.
in full polyvinyl chloride
Synthetic resin, an organic polymer made by treating vinyl chloride monomers with a peroxide. for iron continues at a rate of 0.8% per year, holding the annual growth rate for ductile iron casting shipments to 2.3%.
Metalworking Machinery & Equipment
The consumers of this machinery sector have moved offshore, and the industry is not expected to rebound to its former levels of shipments.
Forecast--Shipments of gray iron castings increased to a peak of 65,000 tons in 2008, signaling a permanent drop of 100,000 tons from the peak years in the 1970s. The consumption of ductile iron and steel castings also has dropped and is forecast to hold at low levels. Carbon and low alloy rolls usage has been reduced to 1.4 tons.
Power Hand Tools
Forecast--This market continues to be a growth market for both aluminum and magnesium magnesium (măgnē`zēəm, –zhəm), metallic chemical element; symbol Mg; at. no. 12; at. wt. 24.305; m.p. about 648.8°C;; b.p. about 1,090°C;; sp. gr. 1.738 at 20°C;; valence +2. castings. Shipments of aluminum die castings die casting
Forming metal objects by injecting molten metal under pressure into dies or molds. An early and important use of the technique was in the Linotype machine (1884), but the mass-production automobile assembly line gave die casting its real impetus. are expected to grow to 32,000 tons in 2009, and sand and permanent mold aluminum casting shipments are expected to rise to 14,000 tons per year. Magnesium casting usage is at 14,000 tons per year.
Special Industry Machinery
The average weighted growth of the packaging, food products, paper, printing and textiles textiles, all fabrics made by weaving, felting, knitting, braiding, or netting, from the various textile fibers (see fiber). Types of Textiles
sectors is forecast at 2% in 2009 and 2.3% per year through 2018.
Forecast--A short-term gray iron casting shipment growth of 1% in 2009 is forecast, with a long-term annual 0.1% decline as some industries begin to move overseas. Ductile iron casting shipments are forecast to increase 1% from 2008 to 2009, followed by a continued annual gain to 116,000 tons by 2018.
Corrosion resistant steel shipments are expected to see a long-term growth of 1% to 20,000 tons in 2018. Heat resistant steels, however, are not expected to show growth.
Pumps & Compressors
Oil field equipment growth has spurred casting growth, which is forecast to continue into 2009 and 2010.
Forecast--Gray iron casting shipments in 2008 dropped to 200,000 tons. A short-term growth of 1.4% is forecast in 2009, but some substitution by ductile iron and growth in imports are expected to stifle long-term growth. Ductile iron casting shipments are forecast to expand at an average annual rate of 2.3%, with a short-term growth of 6.8% to 94,000 tons through 2010.
Steel castings in pump applications are forecast to increase 1.6% through 2018 as usage in oil field and petrochemical petrochemical, any one of a large group of chemicals derived from a component of petroleum or natural gas. The cracking processes for manufacturing gasoline produce vast quantities of gaseous hydrocarbons. parts increase. Corrosion resistant pumps are forecast to rise 2.1% by 2018 in similar industries, plus new applications in waste handling.
Gears, Speed Changers
The Changers are a fictional group of anti-hero published by Wildstorm an imprint of DC Comics. & Power Transmission Equipment
Forecast--A 4.8% increase in gray iron casting shipments to 110,000 tons is forecast for 2010, with a long-term annual growth of 0.7%. Based on an increased use of austempered ductile iron as a replacement for forged forge 1
1. A furnace or hearth where metals are heated or wrought; a smithy.
2. A workshop where pig iron is transformed into wrought iron.
v. gears and shafts, ductile iron casting shipments are forecast to rise to 27,000 tons in 2009, followed by an increase to 35,000 tons by 2018.
Refrigeration refrigeration, process for drawing heat from substances to lower their temperature, often for purposes of preservation. Refrigeration in its modern, portable form also depends on insulating materials that are thin yet effective. , Air Conditioning air conditioning, mechanical process for controlling the humidity, temperature, cleanliness, and circulation of air in buildings and rooms. Indoor air is conditioned and regulated to maintain the temperature-humidity ratio that is most comfortable and healthful. & Heating Equipment
Forecast--A 4% increase to 107,000 tons in gray iron casting shipments is expected in 2009, despite an increase in imports to 25% of demand. A long-term 0.3% increase is forecast. Ductile iron casting shipments are forecast to increase 1.6% to 42,000 tons from 2008 to 2018.
Aluminum die castings, which comprise approximately ap·prox·i·mate
1. Almost exact or correct: the approximate time of the accident.
2. 80% of total aluminum usage, are forecast to rise to 44,000 tons in 2009, a loss of 0.5% from 2007. Imports of die castings are estimated at 12,000 tons, which is 22% of demand.
Electrical Equipment A piece of electrical equipment is a machine, powered by electricity and usually consists of an enclosure, a variety of electrical components and often a power switch. Examples of Electrical Equipment
The constant dollar value of shipments by the motor and generator industry is expected to expand by 2% per year in the long term.
Forecast--The use of gray iron castings is forecast to continue to decline as conversion to aluminum increases along with imports. Shipments are forecast to drop to 50,000 tons in 2009 and decline in the long-term to 35,000 tons by 2018. Aluminum die castings in electric motors are forecast to increase to 29,000 tons in 2009 and rise to 32,000 tons by 2018. The use of zinc zinc, metallic chemical element; symbol Zn; at. no. 30; at. wt. 65.38; m.p. 419.58°C;; b.p. 907°C;; sp. gr. 7.133 at 25°C;; valence +2. Zinc is a lustrous bluish-white metal. It is found in Group 12 of the periodic table. and lead die castings is expected to increase to 32,000 tons in 2009 but drop to 22,000 tons in later years based on conversion to plastics.
Housing starts are forecast to rise 1% from a 28% decline between 2006 and 2009, spurring growth in appliance A stand-alone hardware device or software environment dedicated to a specific task. See hardware appliance and software appliance. production.
Forecast--Gray iron shipments are forecast to decrease 6.2% per year based on a loss to plastics and aluminum. Shipments are expected to drop 18,000 tons from 2008 to 2018. Aluminum castings, on the other hand, are forecast to increase to 67,000 tons in 2009 and continue growth to 74,000 by 2018.
Railroad railroad or railway, form of transportation most commonly consisting of steel rails, called tracks, on which freight cars, passenger cars, and other rolling stock are drawn by one locomotive or more.
Freight car deliveries are expected to be 40,000 in 2009, down from 63,000 tons in 2008. Deliveries are expected to decrease to 35,000 in 2010.
Forecast--Steel railroad shipments are forecast to fall near 200,000 tons in 2009 and drop another 40,000 tons in 2010. Imports are estimated at 22% of demand.
Forecast--A long-term growth of 3% per year is forecast for this classification. Aluminum casting shipments are expected to increase from 132,000 tons in 2008 to 150,000 tons in 2018, a 1.4% annual growth rate.
FOR MORE IN FORMATION
@ "Industrial Production to Spur Casting Demand," K. Kirgin, MODERN CASTING, January January: see month. 2008, p. 26-31.
Ken Kirgin, Stratecasts Inc., Ft. Myers Myers can refer to: People
Florida (flôr`ĭdə, flŏr`–), state in the extreme SE United States. A long, low peninsula between the Atlantic Ocean (E) and the Gulf of Mexico (W), Florida is bordered by Georgia and
A 50-year metalcasting industry veteran, Ken Kirgin founded Stratecasts Inc., Ft. Myers, Fla., to provide domestic and international forecasting and trends analysis and strategic planning Strategic planning is an organization's process of defining its strategy, or direction, and making decisions on allocating its resources to pursue this strategy, including its capital and people. .
Table 1. Short-& Long-Term Market Summary for Gray Iron Castings NAICS Industry Short Term Long Term Growth '08-'10 AGR * 234110 Municipal +7.3% +1.6% 234910 Soil Pipe -2% -3.5% 331511 Ingot Molds -27% -5% 332998 Sanitary/Radiator 0% -1.9% 33291 Valves/Fittings +4.3% -1.4% 333618 Internal Combustion +7.9% 0% 33311 Farm Equipment -1.3% -0.6% 333120 Construction Equipment +1.9% -0.6% 333512 Machine Tool -0.1% -0.9% 33329 Special Industry +2.4% -0.1% 33391 Pumps/Compressors +3.2% +1.4% 3334 Refrigeration/AC +4.9% +0.3% 333512 Electrical -8.0% -3.9% 3352 Household Appliances -0.1% -6.7% 336111,2 Light Vehicles +6.2% +0.6% 33612 Medium to Heavy Trucks +34.3% +3.8% TOTAL +4.6% +0.1% NAICS Forecast Factors 234110 Housing starts down 30% in three years; Gain forecast in 2009 followed by 3% annual gain; Imports 36% of demand; 50,000 tons converted to ductile iron 234910 Replacement by plastics; Imports 20% of demand 331511 Continuous cast steel at 98%; Mini-mills-no-blast furnaces 332998 Replacement by plastic 33291 Growth in housing starts; Loss to plastic & ductile iron; Imports more than 100,000 tons 333618 Diesel engine casting imports >50% of engines domestic demand; 325,000 tons/year imported 33311 Tractor sales remain strong; Conversion to ductile iron 333120 Growth in building activity; Exports of machinery rise; Loss to ductile iron 333512 58% loss in demand; Industry moved offshore 33329 Conversion to ductile iron; Machinery loss to foreign manufacturers 33391 Conversion to ductile iron; Oil equipment up 3334 Loss to imports 333512 Loss to aluminum, imports 3352 Loss to plastics, aluminum 336111,2 Loss to aluminum, plastics, imports 33612 Growth in truck, trailer in 2009 TOTAL Gain of 186,000 tons by 2010, 44,000 tons in 10 years * Average Annual Growth Rate (AGR) 2008-18 Table 2. Short- & Long-Term Market Summary for Ductile Iron Casting Shipments NAICS Industry Short Term Long Term Growth '08-'10 AGR * 33291 Valves/Fittings 7.1% 1.2% 332996 Pressure Pipe 6.5% 1.5% 33361 Internal Combustion Engines 1.8% 0.5% 33311 Farm Equipment 5.5% 0.8% 333120 Construction Equipment 6.3% 1.8% 33329 Special Industry Machinery 2.8% 0.9% 33391 Pump/Compressors 6.8% 2.3% 333612 Gears/Power Transmission 0% 2.6% 336111,2 Light Vehicles 7.9% 1.2% 336212 Medium to Heavy Truck 39.8% 4.3% TOTAL 7.3% 1.6% NAICS Forecast Factors 33291 Industry growth; Replacement of malleable, gray iron; Imports up to 36% (83,000 tons) 332996 Building activity growth to rise; Exports up; Loss to PVC 33361 Imports increase; Trucks rise 33311 Up in 2009/10; Replace gray iron 333120 Replacement of steel, malleable, gray iron; New municipal parts 33329 Replacement of gray iron; Rise in 2010 33391 Replacement of steel, gray iron 333612 Growth in ADI; Imports up 336111,2 Loss to aluminum in suspension & differential parts; ADI growth; Replacement of malleable; Some crankshaft loss to forgings; Imports rise 336212 Truck & trailer production rebound in 2009; Replacement of steel & malleable TOTAL Gain 298,000 tons by 2010; 677,000 tons in 10 years * Average Annual Growth Rate (AGR) 2008-18 Table 3. Short- & Long-Term Market Summary for Steel Castings NAICS Industry Short Term Long Term Growth '08-'10 AGR * 33291 Valves/Fittings -7.8% 0% 333120 Construction Equipment -1.6% -0.7% 333131 Mining Machinery -3.0% 0.0% 333132 Oil Field Equipment -6.8% -0.9% 333911 Pumps 0% 1.0% 33612 Trucks & Military -13.2% -6.9% 3365 Railroad -36.0% 0.0% TOTAL -19.0% -0.3% NAICS Forecast Factors 33291 Imports high 333120 Loss to ductile iron 333131 Imports up 333132 High oil prices 333911 Petrochemical, chemical up 33612 Substitution by ductile iron 3365 Freight car deliveries down in 2010 TOTAL Loss of 40,000 tons by 2010 as railroad usage moderates; Loss of 45,000 tons in 10 years * Average Annual Growth Rate (AGR) 2008-18 Table 4. Short- & Long-Term Market Summary for Aluminum Castings NAICS Industry Short Term Long Term Growth '08-'10 AGR * 33361 Internal Combustion 0% +0.4% 333991 Power Tools -2.3% +1.1% 33341 Computer/Office -3.8% -5.4% 3334 Refrigeration/AC +7.1% +2.7% 334514 Meters & Regulators +3.4% +3.3% 3352 Household Appliance +3% +1.2% 3361 Motor Vehicles +13.7% +3.4% 3364 Aircraft & Parts +4.7% +1.7% 3345 Instruments +3% +1.3% 3421 Marine & Other -4.1% +1.3% TOTAL +7.6% +2.4% NAICS Forecast Factors 33361 Growth in lawn/garden & sport engine vehicles 333991 Loss to magnesium, plastics 33341 Loss to plastic; Decline in mainframes 3334 Replacement of gray iron 334514 Growth in housing starts; Loss to plastics 3352 Replacement of gray iron; Loss to plastics 3361 Conversion of blocks, heads, suspension & differential parts to AI; Growth to 280 lbs. of AI per vehicle; Loss to plastic/magnesium; Gain in passenger cars 3364 Loss to titanium, imports 3345 Parallels industry growth 3421 Growth market TOTAL Gain 146,000 tons from 2008-2010 * Average Annual Growth Rate (AGR) 2008-18 Table 5. Short- and Long-Term Market Summary for Copper-Base Casting Shipments NAICS Industry Short Term Long Term Growth '08-'10 AGR * 332913 Plumbing/Sanitary 9.10% -1% 332911 Industrial Valves +2.1% -1.8% 332510 Marine 0% +1.8% TOTAL +1.9% -0.2% NAICS Forecast Factors 332913 Loss to plastics, imports 332911 Imports gain 332510 High market gain TOTAL Gain 7,000 tons by 2010 * Average Annual Growth Rate (AGR) 2008-18