Slouching toward a global economic revolution.As an investment banker Investment Banker A person representing a financial institution that is in the business of raising capital for corporations and municipalities. Notes: An investment banker may not accept deposits or make commercial loans. , I'm accustomed to interpreting numbers. But it took words to bring home to me just how irreversibly the world's economy has changed. The words came from the premier of China, Li Peng Li Peng (lē pŭng), 1928–, Chinese Communist leader, premier of China (1988–98), b. Chengdu, Sichuan prov., China. Orphaned at age three when his father was executed by the Kuomintang, Li became the adopted son of Zhou Enlai. , who questioned me last year on how he could accelerate his free-market economic program. He asked, "What are the prospects that 22 Chinese state-owned companies will be able to privatize by selling $10 billion to $15 billion of their stock in the U.S. and Europe?" "Quite good," I replied unequivocally. He then asked me how a certain Chinese steel company could qualify for a New York Stock Exchange New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) World's largest marketplace for securities. The exchange began as an informal meeting of 24 men in 1792 on what is now Wall Street in New York City. listing. Such a conversation - between a Wall Street capitalist and the Communist leader of the world's largest nation - would have been unthinkable a decade ago. Now it signals the revolutionary state of the world's economy. The adoption of market-based economic systems around the world has dramatically - and permanently - altered the global economy. We've seen it in Latin America Latin America, the Spanish-speaking, Portuguese-speaking, and French-speaking countries (except Canada) of North America, South America, Central America, and the West Indies. , Southeast Asia Southeast Asia, region of Asia (1990 est. pop. 442,500,000), c.1,740,000 sq mi (4,506,600 sq km), bounded roughly by the Indian subcontinent on the west, China on the north, and the Pacific Ocean on the east. , China, Russia, Eastern Europe Eastern Europe The countries of eastern Europe, especially those that were allied with the USSR in the Warsaw Pact, which was established in 1955 and dissolved in 1991. , and India. In North America North America, third largest continent (1990 est. pop. 365,000,000), c.9,400,000 sq mi (24,346,000 sq km), the northern of the two continents of the Western Hemisphere. , we see it with the passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), accord establishing a free-trade zone in North America; it was signed in 1992 by Canada, Mexico, and the United States and took effect on Jan. 1, 1994. . Europe also has moved a long way toward a single internal market. These newly opened markets - for trade, investment, and capital - have brought about two structural changes in the global economy. First, a large, productive, and willing group of people, more than 3 billion, has been incorporated into the world's labor force, more than doubling its size. This labor force already is promoting greater productivity. It will increase dramatically the supply and demand for products. It will help dampen inflation for years, because wage levels in the emerging nations are substantially below those in industrial countries. Second, a huge amount of private capital, in the form of both debt and equity, is flowing to these economies, allowing them to capitalize fully on their labor force and resource opportunities. The World Bank estimates that the amount of private capital that flowed to developing countries in 1994 was $135 billion, up from just $8 billion five years earlier. What will be the impact of this world economic revolution? Major corporations in this highly competitive world economy will have to seek - and financial markets will demand - dramatically stronger, more prudent balance sheets, with resultant low financial risk. This will help compensate for the business risk associated with operating in less-familiar territory. And the prospects for sustained low inflation will decrease the benefits of leverage. Even cycles of financial speculation and excess are likely to be dampened because of the heightened concern for balance-sheet rectitude. To increase productivity and strengthen their economies, governments are selling state-owned enterprises. Italy is the latest example, with a $10 billion divestiture slated for this quarter. As governments rely more on markets, they will adopt sober fiscal policy and accept less-direct control over their own economies. Privatization privatization: see nationalization. privatization Transfer of government services or assets to the private sector. State-owned assets may be sold to private owners, or statutory restrictions on competition between privately and publicly owned provides proceeds that can be used to pay off debt, pursue social goals, and build infrastructure - without raising taxes. Against all predictions, the U.S. - New York New York, state, United States New York, Middle Atlantic state of the United States. It is bordered by Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and the Atlantic Ocean (E), New Jersey and Pennsylvania (S), Lakes Erie and Ontario and the Canadian province of , in particular - has become the global marketplace for capital. No other country's market can match the U.S.' ability to distribute massive new issues and provide sufficient aftermarket liquidity so that buyers of size can exit without major impact on their securities' prices. Greater flexibility in U.S. securities regulations for foreign issuers also has encouraged the move to use U.S. equity markets, as has the U.S.' use of disclosure and accounting standards that more accurately reflect the true value of assets and liabilities. While there always will be ebbs and flows in the amount of capital going to emerging markets, investors worldwide are exploring foreign opportunities to an unprecedented degree. However, these developing countries need new resources in place - not just factories and infrastructure, but banks and capital markets. Here are three steps you should take to prepare for the global economic revolution: * Think globally. No, really globally. If you aren't including China, India, most of Latin America, Eastern Europe, Russia, and Southeast Asia in your plans, you are ignoring some of the best opportunities. * Strengthen your company's balance sheets. Structural changes affecting corporations, governments, markets, and investors will not happen without disruptions. * Downsize Downsize Reducing the size of a company by eliminating workers and/or divisions within the company. Notes: When a company downsizes, it is attempting to find ways to improve efficiency and increase profitability. It is sometimes referred to as trimming the fat. , decentralize de·cen·tral·ize v. de·cen·tral·ized, de·cen·tral·iz·ing, de·cen·tral·iz·es v.tr. 1. To distribute the administrative functions or powers of (a central authority) among several local authorities. , and delegate. Your company needs to allow for rapid decision making and flexible responses to opportunities and threats, no matter where in the world they occur. John M. Hennessy is chairman and chief executive of CS First Boston in New York, an investment banking firm. |
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