Slight tire growth predicted.

Tire shipments for 2006 are expected to increase by just over 1% compared to 2005, with increases in the replacement tire market offsetting decreases in the OE markets, the Rubber Manufacturers Association said.

The increases in tire shipments for 2006 continue to reflect steady economic growth in the consumer and commercial sectors. The RMA projects continued annualized growth of approximately 1.7% for total tire shipments through 2011, reflecting increases in the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) and industrial production index (IPI).

The combined original equipment (OE) and replacement shipments for 2006 auto and truck categories are anticipated to increase by 3.8 million units to nearly 325 million units compared to 320.8 million total shipments in 2005. By 2011, this figure is projected to be approximately 352 million units, the RMA said.

Original equipment passenger tires'

This market is projected to decrease by more than 2% to approximately 52 million units in 2006 as a result of a decrease in domestic light vehicle sales and subsequent decreases in domestic light vehicle production. A modest annualized growth of approximately 1% is expected through 2011, as total shipments return to the 55 million unit level as a result of increases in light vehicle sales and production and increases in the popularity of cross-over utility vehicles, which are fitted with OE passenger tires.

Original equipment light truck tires

Approximately six million units are projected for 2006, and it is forecasted to remain at or near this level through 2011, as consumers opt for smaller-sized sport utility and light truck vehicles, which are fitted with the p-metric passenger tires. Note that there has been a change in reporting this category be ginning in 2006, as service trailer tires are no longer included in this category. As such, figures for previous years are not comparable.

OE medium/wide-base/heavy on-highway commercial truck tires

Sales of commercial truck vehicles will experience modest growth in 2006 due to continued vehicle replacement demand and response to future changes in EPA emission regulations. The net result will be 6.5 million OE shipments for 2006. A sharp decline of approximately 15% is anticipated in 2007, after which growth will be erratic in response to additional EPA emission regulations taking effect in 2010.

Replacement passenger tires

The passenger replacement market will increase by slightly more then 2% to over 206 million units for 2006, representing a gain of 4.2 million units over 2005's shipments. Growth in this category is due predominantly to increases in certain subcategories. The p-metric tire market (for SUV type vehicles) is projected to grow more than 10%, and the high and ultra high performance tire markets are projected to increase more than 5% and 11%, respectively, compared to 2005. Overall, the passenger replacement market will continue to increase at approximately 2% per year through 2011, at which point the total units shipped will approach 227 million. Steady growth in this segment is largely attributed to continued growth in the number of vehicles on the road and increasing vehicle miles traveled.

Replacement light truck tires

This market segment is projected to increase by approximately 200,000 units to 36.2 million units in 2006 with continued growth through 2011 at an average annualized growth rate of approximately 2%, or approximately 40 million units shipped.

Akron Rubber Development