Singapore Develops Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning (RAHS) System to Anticipate Future Threats.
WASHINGTON -- The Singapore government today introduced its Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning (RAHS) system, a strategic risk assessment and analysis tool, which aims to provide early alerts on potential threats to national security by developing a network that links various independent government agencies. Some of the latest technologies employed in the RAHS system allow for model-building, monitoring, weak signal detection and pattern analysis. The RAHS system was developed by Singapore's National Security Coordination Centre (NSCC), in collaboration with The Arlington Institute, Cognitive Edge and Singapore government agencies Defence Science Technology Agency (DSTA) and DSO National Laboratories. The system is slated to roll out in Singapore later this year.
Mr. Patrick Nathan, deputy director of the NSCS, Singapore Prime Minister's Office said, "Singapore is introducing an innovative approach to risk assessment and horizon scanning through the RAHS system. While it is still in the development stage, the aim is for RAHS to help leaders to anticipate future security threats and patterns through a networked government approach."
"One of the most remarkable aspects in human history is the continuity of strategic surprises and resulting shocks to nations," said John L. Petersen, founder and president of The Arlington Institute and concept architect for RAHS. "The cause of these shocks is almost always the inability of government to identify early indicators of change and share the information internally due to the inability to recognize subtle indicators that point to big events coupled with the rigid mindsets and structures within agencies. Through collaboration, RAHS will be able to detect signals and analyze potential threat patterns which otherwise would have gone unnoticed."
A working version of the RAHS system will be unveiled to invited practitioners, academics, technologists and futurists at the inaugural two-day International RAHS symposium to be held in Singapore March 19-20, 2007. Presenters from renowned companies and institutions around the globe, including the Institute for the Future, Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies, Stanford Research Institute, British Aerospace, Hewlett Packard, IBM, Nokia and Siemens, will be on hand to share concepts, methods and technology behind risk assessment and horizon scanning. The symposium aims to seed new ideas and perspectives while encouraging collaboration and building awareness within the international community.
Dr. David Martin, founding CEO of M-CAM, Inc. said, "The implication of RAHS and its foresight into economic turning points in the horizon is tremendous. The largest challenge facing financial planners is how to make sense out of vast amounts of potentially unrelated data which only becomes useful when organized in a way to see unanticipated patterns emerge. Many financial institutions already conduct their own risk assessment. However, with a platform to share information - especially across markets -this could be a more robust method of economic risk assessment and horizon scanning in the future."
About the National Security Coordination Secretariat (NSCS)
About the Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
About the Defence Science & Technology Agency (DSTA)
About DSO National Laboratories