Significant expansion of casting demand still forecast for 2004.Ongoing interviews with major consumers of metal castings Metal casting A metal-forming process whereby molten metal is poured into a cavity or mold and, when cooled, solidifies and takes on the characteristic shape of the mold. have reinforced the original forecast for an overall expansion of the demand in 2004. Despite an increase in imports, casting shipments to most market segments are expected to show a sizeable growth compared to 2003 and begin to expand to peak production levels in subsequent years. An expected increase of 7.8% in light vehicle production in the U.S. is forecast to increase the demand for ductile iron Ductile iron, also called ductile cast iron or nodular cast iron, is a type of cast iron invented in 1943 by Keith Millis[1]. While most varieties of cast iron are brittle, ductile iron is much more ductile, as the name implies. and most gray iron castings, though blocks and heads and many other cast metal components continue to be converted to aluminum. After three down years, medium to heavy truck production is forecast to rise 32% in 2004 and grow again in 2005 by 20% to 350,000 vehicles. Freight car deliveries are forecast to continue rebounding and grow by 33% in 2004. Housing starts continue to remain strong and are expected to increase again at a 5% rate. Imports are expected to rise to 2.6 million tons in 2004, threatening shipments of all castings despite the increase in demand. Economic macro market forecasts (Fig. 1) have been used as a basis for this slightly altered 2004-05 forecast. Gray Iron As substitution Substitution Arsinoë put her own son in place of Orestes; her son was killed and Orestes was saved. [Gk. Myth.: Zimmerman, 32] Barabbas robber freed in Christ’s stead. [N.T.: Matthew 27:15–18; Swed. Lit. by light metals (Chem.) the metallic elements of the alkali and alkaline earth groups, as sodium, lithium, calcium, magnesium, etc.; also, sometimes, the metals of the earths, as aluminium. See also: Metal accelerates, shipments of gray iron castings are forecast to increase by 1.7% in 2004 and 3.6% in 2005 with declines expected in some market sectors. Motor Vehicles--Light truck production continues at high levels, thus slowing the conversion of engine blocks to aluminum in many models. Except for brakes and camshafts, most gray iron castings are being converted to aluminum. Shipments for passenger cars and light trucks are forecast to drop between 4-5% in 2004 and 2005 to below 1.2 million tons as imports increase to 25% of the demand and block and head conversion accelerates. Production of light vehicles by transplants Transplants are an American punk rock/rap rock supergroup. They formed in 1999 when Tim Armstrong of the band Rancid played his friend and roadie Rob Aston some beats he had made using Pro Tools and asked Rob if he would consider contributing lyrics. in the U.S. is forecast to reach 2.6 million vehicles in 2004, 20% of the total, replacing a portion of direct imports as foreign currency exchange rates remain strong. This has a positive effect on casting sales, especially on iron brake castings. Transplants have converted most other gray iron parts to aluminum. Gray iron casting consumption in medium to heavy trucks and trailers (primarily brake castings) is expected to rise to 203,000 tons in 2004 as truck and trailer In communications, a code or set of codes that make up the last part of a transmitted message. See trailer label. production rises from three poor years. Municipal Castings--The forecasted increase in housing starts is expected to spur an increase in shipments of municipal and other construction castings to more than 540,000 tons in 2004 despite the continued dumping dumping, selling goods at less than the normal price, usually as exports in international trade. It may be done by a producer, a group of producers, or a nation. of castings at seacoast municipalities. Internal Combustion combustion, rapid chemical reaction of two or more substances with a characteristic liberation of heat and light; it is commonly called burning. The burning of a fuel (e.g., wood, coal, oil, or natural gas) in air is a familiar example of combustion. Engines--Lawn and garden equipment and diesel engine production are expected to grow significantly in 2004, raising gray iron casting shipments to 425,000 tons. Imports of diesel blocks and heads are expected to keep imports at 50%. Machine Tools--Another poor year is forecast compared to the shipments of 10 years ago, however, an increase of 6% is forecast for 2004, as some production returns to the U.S. based on the weakness of the dollar against the Euro. Pumps & Compressors--The use of gray iron castings is expected to grow in 2004 along with the expansion of industrial equipment. A total of 240,000 tons of gray iron castings are forecasted in these industries, followed by continued growth to 254,000 tons in 2005. Refrigeration refrigeration, process for drawing heat from substances to lower their temperature, often for purposes of preservation. Refrigeration in its modern, portable form also depends on insulating materials that are thin yet effective. & Air Conditioning--Though aluminum continues to be substituted for some castings, gray iron consumption is expected to rise to 148,000 tons as exports increase. Household Appliances--The growth in housing starts can be expected to spur appliance A stand-alone hardware device or software environment dedicated to a specific task. See hardware appliance and software appliance. sales, however, conversion of parts to aluminum and plastics can mean a loss of 5,000-10,000 tons of iron casting consumption in the next two years. Ductile Iron Shipments of ductile iron castings are forecast to rise in 2004 by nearly 6% to 4,514,000 tons and continue to grow to 4.7 million tons in 2005. Pipe--Ductile iron pressure pipe shipments are forecast to exceed 2 million tons in 2004 despite a continued loss of some applications to PVC PVC: see polyvinyl chloride. PVC in full polyvinyl chloride Synthetic resin, an organic polymer made by treating vinyl chloride monomers with a peroxide. pipe. The continued strength of the Euro and Yen should spur export growth versus French, German and Japanese competitors. Motor Vehicles--Aided by the continued high production of light trucks in the U.S., ductile iron consumption in light vehicles is forecast to stay above 1.1 million tons, however, losses to a aluminum in suspension and differential castings are taking their toll. Growth in brake and other castings, as well as austempered ductile iron parts (ADI), is expected to keep the average weight of ductile iron per vehicle at 180 lbs. The conversion of malleable iron (Metal.) iron sufficiently pure or soft to be capable of extension under the hammer; also, specif., a kind of iron produced by removing a portion of the carbon or other impurities from cast iron, rendering it less brittle, and to some extent malleable. parts to ductile ductile /duc·tile/ (duk´til) susceptible of being drawn out without breaking. duc·tile adj. Easily molded or shaped. ductile susceptible of being drawn out without breaking. also is reaching its final stage. Special Industry Machinery--Growth in the production of paper, printing, packaging and plastic machinery in 2004 and 2005 is expected to spur growth in ductile iron consumption. A 4% increase, paralleling the average industry growth, is forecast to bring shipments to 102,000 tons. Construction Machinery & Equipment--Construction equipment sales, spurred by an increase in exports, should lead to rising casting demand in 2004 and 2005. Shipments of ductile iron castings are expected to rise 6.8% in 2004 to 203,000 tons and increase again in 2005 to 220,000 tons. Commercial building expansion, as well as strong housing starts, also should lead to greater demand. Steel A significant rise in freight car deliveries and growth in mining, oil field and construction machinery is expected to lead to a 13.5% upturn in steel casting Steel casting is a manufacturing process in which molten metal is poured into a mold, allowed to solidify within the mold, and then the mold is broken and the solid piece is taken out. shipments in 2004. Shipments are forecast to reach 1.26 million tons after three consecutive years of nearly 1 million tons. Railroad--Freight car deliveries increased to 30,000 cars in 2003 and are forecast to rise another 33% to 40,000 in 2004. This should lead to a rise of 90,000 tons in railroad railroad or railway, form of transportation most commonly consisting of steel rails, called tracks, on which freight cars, passenger cars, and other rolling stock are drawn by one locomotive or more. steel casting shipments to 488,000 tons. A further increase to 578,000 tons is forecast for 2005 based on a 48,000 car delivery year. Maintenance projects in the next few years also should affect steel casting demand. Construction Machinery & Equipment--Worldwide economic improvements and a strong Euro are expected to increase exports by U.S. manufacturers. Exports of construction machinery are now 35% of total shipments and are forecast to aid in the rise of steel casting shipments to 200,000 tons. Increases in residential and commercial construction activity also are forecast for the next few years. Mining & Oil Field Machinery--After five down years, the Years, The the seven decades of Eleanor Pargiter’s life. [Br. Lit.: Benét, 1109] See : Time mining machinery industry is forecast to rise 15% in 2004 and spur the increase of steel casting shipments to more than 140,000 tons. Continuing high oil prices also can lead to a market for more than 50,000 tons of steel castings. Commercial & Military Vehicles--Despite the loss of applications to ductile iron and ADI, an increase in military vehicle and truck production is forecast to increase steel casting shipments to 62,000 tons in 2004. Valves--Despite heavy import pressures, the demand for steel castings is expected to rise to more than 100,000 tons in valve castings based on growth of petroleum, oil field, chemical processing and power generation applications. Corrosion-Resistant Steels--Spurred by the increase in valve and pump applications and growth in oil field drilling equipment, the shipments of corrosion-resistant steel castings are expected to grow to 90,000 tons in 2004. Aluminum Spurred by a forecast of a record light vehicle year in 2004 and an acceleration of the conversion from iron castings, aluminum casting shipments are forecast to increase to 2.4 million tons in 2004. Aluminum die casting die casting Forming metal objects by injecting molten metal under pressure into dies or molds. An early and important use of the technique was in the Linotype machine (1884), but the mass-production automobile assembly line gave die casting its real impetus. shipments are forecast to expand to 1,364,000 tons in 2004, a 6.5% increase from 2003. Shipments of permanent mold mold, name for certain multicellular organisms of the various classes of the kingdom Fungi, characteristically having bodies composed of a cottony mycelium. The colors of molds are caused by the spores, which are borne on the mycelium. and sand cast aluminum are forecast to reach a peak of 1 million tons in 2004 as head and block production rises. Motor Vehicles--Led by the increase in transplant transplant or graft Partial or complete organ or other body part removed from one site and attached at another. It may come from the same or a different person or an animal. One from the same person—most often a skin graft—is not rejected. production of light vehicles in the U.S. and increased consumption by OEMs of aluminum, casting production is expected to increase to 700,000 tons in 2004. Aluminum blocks and heads have increased in usage in light vehicle engines to 45% and 90% respectively. Growth to 270 lbs. per vehicle is forecast. Brass & Bronze Despite a growth in imports to more than 30% of total shipments, brass and bronze castings are forecast to grow 5.6% in 2004 to 321,000 tons. Increases in housing starts in the next two years should spur sales of copper-based cast parts. Bronze and brass uses in marine hardware and electrical applications also should aid in the increase in casting demand. Update on Casting Imports Although casting demand in the next few years looks very bullish Bullish Word used to describe an investor's attitude. Bullish refers to an optimistic outlook, while bearish means a pessimistic outlook. bullish for most market segments, casting imports are forecast to grow approximately 5% per year and will affect casting shipments of many domestic foundries. Based on recent interviews and on our analysis of currency exchanges and conditions in the worldwide marketplace, casting imports to the U.S. are forecast to increase to 2.6 million tons in 2004 and 2.73 million tons in 2005. This represents 17-18% of the total casting demand. The following are some conclusions after a recent analysis of the data surrounding sur·round tr.v. sur·round·ed, sur·round·ing, sur·rounds 1. To extend on all sides of simultaneously; encircle. 2. To enclose or confine on all sides so as to bar escape or outside communication. n. casting imports: * the total demand for gray iron castings is 5,721,000 tons and exports are forecast at 597,000 tons. Since 1,426,000 tons are supplied from imports and 2,531,000 tons from captive captive said of naturally wild or feral animals kept in captivity for educational and scientific investigation with no attempt being made to domesticate them. operations, only 41% of the demand (2,361,000 tons) is available for sale by jobbing foundries; * an analysis of the prices paid for much of the imported castings shows that they are being "dumped dump v. dumped, dump·ing, dumps v.tr. 1. To release or throw down in a large mass. 2. a. " illegally by the exporting countries and that these acts have caused injury to the U.S. foundry A semiconductor manufacturer that makes chips for third parties. It may be a large chip maker that sells its excess manufacturing capacity or one that makes chips exclusively for other companies. industry and is the direct cause for the shutting down of casting operations and the reduction of profit margins; * strong currencies, especially in Europe and Japan, have spurred the increase in casting exports to an estimated 1.6 million tons.
Fig. 1 These economic macro market forecasts were uased as a basis
for a slightly altered forecast.
2003 2004 2005
GDP +4.1% +4.2% +4.3%
Housing Starts +4.0% +5.0% +4.5%
Motor Vehicle Production
Passenger Cars 4,600 5,100 5,700
Light Trucks 7,370 7,800 7,840
Med/Hvy Trucks 220 290 350
Railroad Freight Car Deliveries 30,000 40,000 48,000
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