Shipping news.

THE Los Angeles and Long Beach ports complex will once again witness big growth this summer during the peak shipping season, but signs are the ports can handle it--at least this year.

Goods movement has been up more than 10 percent so far at the two ports, but at a peak season forecast conference last week experts said past improvements made to help speed goods through the ports should continue to be effective.

"We still anticipate that, collectively, the whole system should be at least as smooth as last year. The pace of growth has slowed, but we're still setting records," said conference participant Paul Bingham, an economist with Global Insight Inc., who expects 2007 cargo volume to top last year by 8.3 percent.

The ability to handle peak season shipments has been an issue since 2004, when a spike in peak season imports from Asia overwhelmed port facilities and left huge cargo ships lined up for weeks in ocean waters outside the ports. In response, the ports began their PierPass program, which expanded operations into the night hours, and began holding peak season forecasts.

So far this year, the combined cargo container traffic through the ports during January and February is up 12 percent over last year. And though March is typically the slowest month for cargo, exports predict a 10 percent jump over last March.

That growth in winter and spring imports is not surprising given that international trade has increased year-round and retailers have sought to stretch the holiday shopping season even earlier into the fall. That means the start of the peak season--during which the bulk of holiday goods are shipped--has moved earlier into the spring, prompting more importers to pay a premium to ship their goods even earlier to avoid the rush.

"The peak season certainly is changing," Bingham said.

Despite the comforting predictions for 2007 port operations, however;many analysts tempered their comments with warnings of potential disruptions of port operations in the coming years.

Brian Griley, president of Southern Counties Express Inc., a Rancho Dominguez-based trucking company, expects upheaval next year in what he calls "the perfect storm." He believes driver shortages resulting from a new government credentialing program and port-sponsored truck replacement programs could seriously affect truck operations at the ports.

William Rooney, managing director for Hanjin Shipping Co. Ltd., a South Korean shipper that operates a Long Beach terminal, agreed that this year represented only a calm before the storm and said the port was headed for "significant issues."