Shhhhh--the next governor of California is ...

Fast forward to the first Monday of January, 2007:

I Arnold Schwarzenegger, do solemnly swear that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States and the Constitution of the State of California against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the Constitution of the United States and the Constitution of the State of California; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties upon which I am about to enter."

You read it here first: Another term for The Terminator. More wacky pronunciations, evasive spokespeople, cockeyed budget schemes, threats against the Legislature and claims of sexual harassment. And, of course, more cigars--lots more of those.

Forget about the gloom-and-doom pundits who liken him to Minnesota's one-term Jesse Ventura. Ignore public opinions polls showing that 56 percent of Californians are not inclined to re-elect him (36 percent say they would). Never mind next month's special election in which the unions are outspending him on four ballot initiatives (three of which he's unlikely to win).

Barring the shocking or scandalous (and with Schwarzenegger you never know) he will figure out a way to win. He will charm anything that moves and spend whatever it takes--his own money as well as his pals'--to convince Californians that he's their best bet.

On the campaign stump, he'll throw "girlie men" into every speech and the crowds will roar. The state budget crisis will reappear--thanks to him deferring on so many spending decisions this year- and he will blame the unions, trial lawyers and liberal members of the Assembly. He will paint himself as the outsider who needs to finish the job ("I'm a follow-through guy," he said at a Town Hall meeting in San Diego). He will bring out his wife a lot, and she'll say nice things.

And somehow, people buy into the lot of it, just as they did on "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno" recently when he received a standing ovation. "A gubernatorial election is all about contrasts," blogged Matt Szabo, who was Bob-Hertzberg's spokesman during the mayoral campaign and knows a thing or two about state politics. "For the Dems to unseat the governor, they will have to make a convincing case to the voters that their guy, whoever it is, is better and/or more appealing than Arnold."

Which is part of the problem--or haven't you heard who the two leading candidates are?

The Democrats have--are you sitting down--State Treasurer Phil Angelides and State Controller Steve Westly. Now, that has the makings of a wild and crazy campaign.

"Can you possibly imagine a scenario where the state treasurer, wire-rimmed glasses and all, would receive a standing ovation on the Tonight Show? Not in a million years," wrote Szabo.

It's not too late for a last-minute entrant, but who might that be? There was early talk about actor/director Rob "Meathead" Reiner entering the race, and most recently the chatter has centered on Warren Beatty, who spiced up a convention of the California Nurses Association by accusing Schwarzenegger of governing "by show, by spin, by cosmetics and photo ops."

Then, to groans of disappointment, Beatty told the adoring crowd that he's not interested in public office. Reiner is spending time pushing a tax increase on the rich, which he wants to be on next June's ballot. There's little chance either of them would be persuaded into running, and besides, what vision or experience do they bring? (In a Field poll last June, Reiner had the support of just 33 percent of those surveyed, while Beatty had 24 percent support.)

Once you eliminate the show biz contingent, you're left with the state's two most popular Democrats: Sen. Dianne Feinstein and L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.

Feinstein, who faces re-election herself next year, always seems to pop up as a white knight for the Democrats (she turned down a run against Schwarzenegger in the recall election) and shows no interest in making a run for governor this time. It would make no sense, not only for Feinstein herself, who prefers big-time Washington over small-town Sacramento, but for Senate Democrats who cannot afford losing yet another seat to the Republicans.

As for Villaraigosa, who seems to be having the time of his life, there's no reason for him to jump the gun for statewide office just a few months into his mayoral term. All it would do is alienate his base of support among Angelenos who want him to stay put for at least one term--plus, there's the very real possibility that Schwarzenegger would beat him.

No, it's looking like Schwarzenegger vs. the no-names, with the house money going heavily to the former bodybuilder from Austria. As it often goes these days in politics, better glitz than good.

Mark Lacter is editor of the Business Journal. He can be heard every Tuesday morning at 6:55 and 9:55 on KPCC-FM (89.3).

Tale of the Tape

                               ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER

Age                                      58
Birthplace                         Thal, Austria
Occupation                    Governor/Actor/Investor
Spouse                             Maria Shriver
No. of Children                          4
Residence                       Brentwood/Sacramento
Acting credits                           39
Awards                          1 Golden Globe Award
                                5-time Mr. Universe
                                 7-time Mr. Olympia
Politics                        Moderate Republican
Memorable Role               Cyborg in "The Terminator"
Celebrity Ex-Girlfriend           Brigitte Nielsen

                                   WARREN BEATTY

Age                                      68
Birthplace                         Richmond, Va.
Occupation                         Actor/Director
Spouse                             Annette Bening
No. of Children                          4
Residence                          Beverly Hills
Acting credits                           23
Awards                         1 Oscar/Best Director
                                  3 Golden Globes
                            Kennedy Center Honors (2004)
Politics                          Liberal Democrat
Memorable Role                Hairdresser in "Shampoo"
Celebrity Ex-Girlfriend             Diane Keaton