Severe labor shortage in Hawaii may be over

At 58, Susan Cappeletto has put together a resume for the first time in her life. It was very succinct, listing just one employer.

Cappeletto recently lost her reservations job of 36 years when Aloha Airlines shut down. She and a couple thousand of her colleagues are now on the job hunt with lots of uncertainty surrounding their future.

"I don't know," said Cappeletto, who could lose all her seniority and face a steep pay cut. "I've applied at some other airlines, but at $9 an hour, I'd still have to find another job. I couldn't just do that."

Hawaii's jobless rate — which has averaged below 3 percent annually for the past three years making it regularly the lowest in the U.S. — is projected to increase to 4 percent possibly before the end of the year because of the cooling tourism-driven economy and the recent shutdown of Aloha and other companies.

The days when "Help Wanted" signs were common in Hawaii storefront windows with companies offering cash bonuses and other incentives to lure workers seem to be over.

But economists and industry experts predict many of the affected workers will eventually find new jobs, some at lower pay, that will keep Hawaii well below the national average.

"From an employment standpoint, this will probably be the best time to have that sort of thing happen simply because the labor shortage that we're having," said James Hardway, spokesman for the state Department of Labor and Industrial Relations.

"From our perspective, we are not in bad shape. In fact, we are still in really good shape," he said.

For March, the most recent month available, Hawaii had the nation's fourth lowest jobless rate at 3.1 percent. The U.S. average was 5.1 percent.

April's jobless figures are expected to rise about a half a percentage point with the financial collapse of ATA and Aloha airlines that left about 2,200 residents without work in the islands, and the closure of Molokai Ranch, which affected 120 workers.

There were 4,468 unemployment claims filed with the state for the first two weeks of April, double the 2,214 filings from the same period last year.

Next month, Weyerhaeuser Co. will close the state's only cardboard plant and layoff 85 workers. Norwegian Cruise Lines, which pulled a ship out of interisland service in February, is transferring a second vessel, the Pride of Aloha, to Asia next month, putting another 235 Hawaii residents out of work.

Barron Guss, president and CEO of Altres, the islands' largest employment agency, was confident most of the displaced workers would quickly be picked up by other companies. Guss has hired two former Aloha employees himself.

"As doom-and-gloom as it looks, it isn't," he said. "They're a very qualified work force."

That contrasts with past massive layoffs in Hawaii, where sugar cane and pineapple workers were left with few options.

Beth Busch, president of Success Advertising Hawaii, which organizes several job fairs each year, said she expects hiring to remain strong, especially with several big retail companies entering the marketplace such as Target and Whole Foods.

More than 200 employers have signed up for a job fair she is planning in May.

"This is not a dismal job market by any means. There are still many jobs available," she said. "It's not like after 9/11 when 17,000 people were let go and jobs were hard to find."

Busch said if people are willing to retrain, there is great demand in health care, such as nursing jobs, that provide stability and good pay.

With the islands' labor pool starting to grow, businesses finally are finding some relief after enduring a severe labor shortage for the past five years amid a tourism and construction boom.

Jim Tollefson, head of the Chamber of Commerce of Hawaii, said the labor shortage has had a "meaningful impact" on companies, with many struggling to fill jobs ranging from entry-level jobs to project engineers. Some small businesses and restaurants have been forced to close because of the shortage.

"Up until a month ago, almost on a daily basis, people would say they were having a hard time finding people," he said.

University of Hawaii economist Carl Bonham had forecast for the past several years that the Hawaii economy would eventually slow, in part because of the tight labor pool.

The bigger challenge facing the economy, he said, is the reduced air lift to the islands, coupled with the higher airfares and the loss of the interisland cruise ships.

Bonham predicted the state's unemployment rate could reach 4 percent sometime next year, which would still be considered full employment by many.

"Many will find work; it just won't be for an airline," he said.

Some may not get the salary they were paid in the past.

Cappeletto said it's not just the pay that she'll lose. She had seven weeks of paid vacation, fantastic flight privledges after 36 years and a great medical plan.

"Even if I go to another airline, it won't be the same," she said. Now, she's getting by in high-priced Hawaii on about $500 a week in unemployment benefits.

"I'm not nearly as bad off as others. But it's still a big change," she said.

Leroy Laney, an economics and finance professor at Hawaii Pacific University, said the recent losses will be felt. He expected the unemployment rate to climb and close in on the national average.

"For several years, we've had (among) the lowest unemployment rates in the nation. Those days are gone now," he said.

Some Hawaii jobless may be forced to move, or commute to another island for work if they want to stay in Hawaii.

The recent layoffs at Molokai Ranch are expected to push unemployment on the sparsely populated island of Molokai to a whopping 12 percent. The ranch was the largest private employer and landowner on the island.

The more than 300 pilots who lost their jobs at Aloha also may be forced to move or find a new profession.

"If flying is what they want to do, than we anticipate they'll be moving from Hawaii to continue their flying careers," said Kimberly Seitz, spokeswoman for the Air Line Pilots Association. "If staying in Hawaii is important for them, they'll probably find another source of revenue doing something else."

Because of the closures of several U.S. carriers, Seitz said, "the competition has gotten a lot stiffer."

Much as it has for many other jobs in Hawaii.