Session given a "Cook's Tour." (November election forecasts by Charlie Cook)

A few months ago, the November elections seemed as though they would come and go without much attention or drama. Today, experts are dubbing the races the "Mother of all Congressional Election Years." Will Republicans take control of either chamber? How will Clinton's dismal approval ratings affect races on the local levels? What outcome will the voters' anti-incumbent fever have on seated politicians?

Well-known political observer Charlie Cook had all the answers and predictions for attendees of a breakfast yesterday exclusively for donors to ASAE's Government Relations Education Fund (GREF) and ASAE's Political Action Committee (A-PAC). Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report and regular columnist in Roll Call newspaper, has met with over 300 candidates for the House and Senate in the past year, and is one of the most widely quoted pundits in American politics today.

Nearly every political observer expects Republicans to make gains significant in this year's cycle, but the extent to which they pick up power will depend on a number of factors. Cook offered insight on several races and predicted winners in others; the news was mostly "bad" for Democrats and "good to great" for Republicans. Congressional races this year will depend on many complex elements, among them:

* President Clinton's approval ratings are marginal at best, and at what Cook terms "impeachment levels" in many states in the South and West. Voter turnout will also be critical.

Many Democrats, disappointed with their own party, may not bother to show up to vote on Election Day. Republicans--especially conservatives--may be more eager to turn out in force to vote and show their disenchantment with Clinton and the Democratically-controlled Congress. "I wouldn't want to be crossing the street in front of one of those voters on Election morning," quipped Cook, referring to their eagerness to get to the polls.

* More problems lurk for Senate Democrats on a candidate-by-candidate basis as well. Scandals have scarred the party in Arizona and Michigan, where two members of the "Keating Five" have chosen to retire. In Virginia, Senator Charles Robb has his own baggage, which has dogged his approval ratings there, although Cook predicts a narrow two- to three-point victory for him. In contrast, the Republicans have only Minnesota to play down, where scandal-plagued incumbent David Durenberger has chosen not to seek re-election. Maine and Oklahoma present two more problem states for Democrats that were considered safe at the beginning of the year: retiring Majority Leader Mitchell garnered 81 percent of the vote in Maine in his last election, and popular Senator David Boren is retiring mid-term.

Both states could see Republican pick ups.

* Many of the dilemmas that plagued incumbents in 1992 will continue to be felt in this year's election as well. Congress continues to suffer from poor ratings and anti-incumbent sentiment from the public. The redistricting of two years ago forced many Members to run in unfamiliar precincts, and campaigning will continue to be tough for those most affected by new boundary lines. Cook pointed out that health care reform will not be anything close to what Clinton had wanted; in fact, it will be nothing more than insurance reform at best. This could have an adverse effect on candidates, such as Senator Harris Wofford (D-PA), who put much emphasis on reform in their earlier campaigns.

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So what does all of this mean? Cook predicts that Republicans could pick up four or five seats in the Senate and 20-25 in the House. An increase of that amount in the lower chamber would give the GOP its highest ratio since 1958; an increase of much more than that would give functional control of the House to conservatives, through an informal coalition of Republicans and centrist Democrats. Either way, Clinton's legislative problems of the 103rd Congress (1993-94) will be nothing compared to what is in store for the 104th Congress. Cook warned gridlock will increase, and very few bills will get through both houses in the next two years. As a result, the elections of 1996 could see many more incumbents of both parties defeated as the public expresses frustration with political gridlock.

In attendance at the event was Arizona Cable Television Association's executive director, Susan Bitter Smith. She is an ASAE Board member, chair of the Government Affairs Committee, and is running for Congress from Arizona's first district. For more information, call Friends of Susan Bitter Smith at [phone].

ASAE would like to again thank the contributors to GREF and A-PAC, for making 1994 the most successful fundraising year in ASAE's history. Support from the association community for GREF find A-PAC is more important now than ever.