Serious negotiations urged to prevent escalation of violence: 'full-scale civil war' and genocide possible.

In a carefully worded resolution, the Security Council on 5 March encouraged Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali to continue his consultations regarding contingency planning "both for the steps that might be taken to support a comprehensive dialogue and for a rapid humanitarian response in the event of widespread violence or a serious deterioration in the humanitarian situation" in Burundi. The action was taken as the death toll in the previous two weeks in north-western Burundi was widely reported to have risen, and after the Secretary-General on 16 February urged the Council to consider setting up a stand-by multinational force for rapid humanitarian intervention.

Declaring in resolution 1049 (1996) that it was "deeply disturbed that the persistence of the conflict has had a negative impact on the humanitarian situation and on the capacity of the international community to continue to assist the people of Burundi", the Council strongly condemned acts of violence against civilians, refugees and international aid personnel. It demanded that the parties concerned refrain from such violence or from seeking to destabilize the situation or to depose the Government, and called on them "to engage, as a matter of urgency, in serious negotiations and mutual accommodation."

The Council also asked the Secretary-General, in consultation with the Burundi Government, the Organization of African Unity (OAU), the European Union, Heads of State of the Great Lakes Region of Central Africa and Member States concerned, to intensify preparations for convening a regional conference for peace, security and development. A report on the possibility of establishing a UN radio station in the country "to promote reconciliation and dialogue and to relay constructive information" was also requested.

Burundi `prepared to confront any expeditionary corps'

While the resolution was adopted unanimously, statements made in the Council meeting reflected a mixed response. Burundi, invited to participate in the discussion, rejected the view that the country would descend into a "Rwanda-style genocide". Maintaining that "new phenomena" for peace had emerged and isolated those opposed to it, Burundi warned that its army was "completely prepared to confront any expeditionary corps, regardless of its humanitarian or military label."

Italy--speaking on behalf of the European Union, Poland, Hungary, the Slovak Republic, Malta, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania and Cyprus--said that "another potential humanitarian catastrophe in the region can be averted only if all the interested parties realize that there is no viable solution outside of dialogue". However, the resolution was "very clear" in warning the parties that the international community might be forced to "change its attitude" if there were acts of violence or attempts at destabilization. The United States asserted that "given the horrors of what happened in Rwanda, and the persistence of outrages in Burundi, we would fail in our responsibilities if we did not" plan for the contingency that widespread violence might resume. France emphasized that the Council "must ensure that its decisions do not run counter to the efforts of the Government", while China underlined that the internal affairs of a Member State should be settled by the people of that country.

Although repeated appeals for preventive action by the Secretary-General have helped keep worldwide attention focused on the situation in Burundi and the entire Great lakes region, they have also underscored the dilemma the crisis poses for the UN. The international community could not countenance the country becoming an ethnic killing field like that which scarred Rwanda in 1994. However, with Burundi's Government strongly objecting to the stationing of military forces in Zaire or any other neighbouring country with a view to rapid deployment in its territory, the Council and the Secretary-General have continued to discuss ways to contain a possible escalation of the violence without resorting to troop deployment.

Burundi, which borders Rwanda, Zaire and the United Republic of Tanzania, has been racked by a low-grade civil war that, according to some estimates, has been claiming as many as 30 lives every day. Since a coup attempt in October 1993 and ensuing massacres, thousands more Burundese have perished in inter-ethnic violence. The country's ethnic make-up is similar to Rwanda's: a relatively large Hutu majority and small Tutsi minority.

Forestalling genocide

Fearing that the rekindled tensions in strife-torn Burundi could escalate "into full-scale civil war, ethnic violence and genocide", the Secretary-General, in a 16 February report (S/1996/116), called on the Council to take "resolute action" and begin to consider the possibility of establishing a standby multinational force of up to 25,000 soldiers, organized under the leadership of a single Member State and authorized to use force under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. Troops would be earmarked and matched with equipment, but would remain on standby in their respective countries.

According to the Secretary-General, the full complement of 25,000 troops would be needed only "in a worst case scenario". Should the parties in Burundi "decide not to adopt a hostile attitude" to the force, if and when deployed, perhaps as little as 5,000 to 8,000 troops would be required, he estimated.

The force, designed to "forestall possible genocide" and a massive exodus of refugees, would be mandated "to deter massacres, to provide security to refugees, displaced persons and civilians at risk and to protect key economic installations". Troops would be deployed to selected areas of actual or potential confrontation. The operation would be established under Chapter VII, as the Government "indicated it would not consent to any kind of foreign humanitarian operation with a military component on its territory".

The humanitarian force would transfer its responsibility to a UN peace-keeping mission under Chapter VI of the Charter, once the situation in the country stabilized.

Calling Burundi "a test case" for the UN's ability to take preventive action, Mr. Boutros-Ghali also stressed in strong terms that, in addition to preparing contingency measures to avoid a "catastrophe", dialogue should continue to be encouraged among all sections of the national political landscape. In this regard, his Special Representative in Burundi, Marc Faguy, was engaged in intense efforts to promote a dialogue, possibly under UN auspices, that would embrace all elements of Burundi's political spectrum. However, he had been unable to report substantial progress. As a result, the Secretary-General felt it was "necessary to consider other steps of a preventive nature, including those with a military aspect, to persuade the parties to leave the path of confrontation".

The international community must "act in a coherent and concerted way. If it does, the extremists on both sides will not be under any illusions that they can exploit perceived differences and continue to destabilize the country with impunity", he stressed.

Guards ruled out for now

The Secretary-General ruled out for the time being any deployment of UN guards to provide enhanced security to aid workers operating in the country. A technical mission had visited Burundi from 27 January to 3 February 1996 to look into the possibility, but according to its assessment guards would not be effective, given the current volatility, the fact that they could become potential targets for extremist groups, as well as "significant opposition" from within the Government. However, Mr. Boutros-Ghali held open the possibility of a later deployment of the guards "should the political dynamics of confrontation change in favour of dialogue and should the Government agree to their deployment."

President Sylvestre Ntibantungganya and Prime Minister Antoine Nduwayo of Burundi, thanking the UN for its efforts to restore confidence and peace in their country, on 13 February maintained that the Government was "establishing a policy of dialogue so as to counter all the extremist and factional elements" that were undermining those efforts. This and other measures had "succeeded in thwarting destabilizing intrigues on the part of certain political leaders", according to the two, who also stressed that the international community's support in "the quest for a definitive and satisfactory solution for all parties" should be effected "in strict respect for its sovereignty and to the exclusion of any use of force".

Preventive steps

The Secretary-General's report had come at the request of the Council, which on 29 January asked him to consider further preventive steps to avoid a worsening of the situation in Burundi and to develop contingency plans by 20 February. He was also asked to report on his efforts to encourage a comprehensive political dialogue.

In adopting unanimously resolution 1040 (1996), the Council also warned that, in light of the Secretary-General's report, it would be ready to consider an arms embargo on Burundi, travel restrictions and other measures against those leaders who continued to encourage violence, and "other steps" that might be needed.

Airwaves polluted by propaganda

The international community was invited to help identify and dismantle radio stations that "incite hatred and acts of violence in Burundi." Similar radio stations had operated in Rwanda, helping to spur on some of the worst excesses of the genocide in that neighbouring country.

The Council also welcomed the dispatch of a technical security team to Burundi after Sadako Ogata, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), called for the team on the heels of her 7 and 8 January visit to the country at the Secretary-General's request. During her two-day stay, she had looked at ways to improve security arrangements, including the deployment of UN guards (a technique first introduced in northern Iraq).

Invited to participate in the Council's discussion, Burundi said that "to defuse the crisis in Burundi it is important to stress the pre-eminence of judicious diplomacy over military intervention".

In an 18 January letter to the Council (S/1996/40), Burundi's Permanent Representative to the UN, Nsanze Terence, rejected the deployment of UN guards, as well as the stationing in neighbouring countries of military forces. "Far from serving as a deterrent", he said, "the military presence in the immediate vicinity of Burundi would appear to be a sword of Damocles." It would "oblige the Burundian army to prepare to defend the country against such an expedition".

It was in the UN's best interest "to abandon that formula once and for all, irrespective of the further evolution of the crisis", he said, calling instead for massive intervention in areas such as national reconciliation, free and responsible press, humanitarian assistance and enhancement of the judicial system.

`Growing radicalization'

The Council had approved the dispatch of the technical security team on 19 January. There was a great deal of concern among Council members on the situation in Burundi, according to its President, Sir John Weston of the United Kingdom. Briefing correspondents at UN Headquarters in New York, he said, there were immediate humanitarian concerns in the country, adding that Mrs. Ogata, after her mission, had emphasized that "if agencies were not able to carry out their work, there could be a humanitarian tragedy".

However, he stressed that there were two other dimensions to the problem, "namely, the need for political dialogue and whether there should be other operational moves to pre-empt or prevent worse things from happening". The Council would address those questions following briefings from the Secretary-General and after hearing from former Tanzanian President Julius Nyrere. Ambassador Weston said that the Council wanted to be very clear on objectives, resources and mandates before taking any new steps.

On 16 January, the Secretary-General had informed the Council of a deterioration of the security situation in Burundi as a whole. "In a climate of growing radicalization", he said (S/1996/36), "extremists from the two main ethnic groups in the country are engaged in a round of violence that includes selective killings, massacres of civilians and the destruction of national economic assets and infrastructure." Additionally, the "polarization" of State institutions, particularly the security forces, was increasing. It was therefore imperative that the international community launch a major initiative to prevent another tragedy in the subregion, he concluded.

Commission of Inquiry

On 3 January, in an interim report on the work of the International Commission of Inquiry, set up to establish the facts relating to the 21 October 1993 assassination of Burundi's President Melchior Ndadaye during a failed coup attempt, as well as the massacres and related violence that followed, the Secretary-General said the Commission had identified several "major problems" in its investigations, including evidence that may have been "lost, suppressed or altered".

However, the most serious problem, according to the Commission, was the "general deterioration of the security situation". It felt that reliance on Burundese security forces for protection was likely to impede the Commission's access to testimony and also compromise its credibility as an impartial international body. Security situation and resources allowing, it would initiate a detailed, systematic investigation of the crimes under its mandate, it said. The Commission had arrived in Bujumbura on 29 October 1995 and submitted its preliminary report to the Secretary-General on 20 December.

On 12 January, Council members underlined (S/1996/27) the importance of the Commission's work and welcomed an agreement of the OAU, reported to them by the Secretary-General's representative, to allow its observers to accompany the investigative body's officers in their work.

Ethnic violence `on a massive scale' feared

There was "a real danger of the situation in Burundi degenerating to the point where it might explode into ethnic violence on a massive scale", the Secretary-General had warned on 29 December. The situation was characterized by daily killings, massacres, torture and arbitrary detention.

In a letter to the Council President (S/1995/1068), he renewed an earlier proposal to maintain a military presence in Zaire, subject to that Government's agreement, which could intervene in a sudden deterioration of the situation. It was "a preventive measure that could help to avoid a repetition of the tragic events in Rwanda", he stressed.

In view of the worsening situation, Mr. Boutros-Ghali also asked the Council to reconsider deploying guards to protect the humanitarian organization teams and human rights observers. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Jose Ayala Lasso, he pointed out, had not yet been able to secure funds needed to deploy observers, "despite numerous and repeated appeals to potential donor Governments".

The deteriorating situation was underscored by the recent decisions of humanitarian organizations, including the International Committee of the Red Cross, the World Food Programme (WFP) and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), to curtail or suspend activities in the country following a spate of violent attacks against their personnel and assets. He had therefore asked Mrs. Ogata to go to Bujumbura to discuss with the Government urgent steps to allow international organizations to function effectively.

The Secretary-General had also received reports from various sources concerning "the persistence of violence and the further escalation of human rights violations".

Earlier, on 22 December, Mr. Boutros-Ghali had appealed to all parties in Burundi to honour the neutrality of humanitarian organizations, and not to impede humanitarian assistance.

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Recent violent confrontations in Bujumbura and neighbouring provinces, he said, had resulted "in further movements of populations and increased suffering of innocent victims". Members of the humanitarian community in the country had become "targets of this unrest", he added, stressing that the perpetrators of "the acts of intimidation are seriously compromising the provision of assistance to those in need".

Killings and inflammatory broadcasts condemned

After considering Mr. Boustros-Ghali's 29 December letter, the Council on 5 January condemned "in the strongest term" persons responsible for killings and other violence in Burundi, saying it would consider the Secretary-General's proposals in light of reports of Mrs. Ogata's mission and from his Special Representative.

In a statement (S/PRST/1996/1) read by Council President Sir John Weston, it appealed to Burundi's "political parties, military forces and elements of civil society" to respect and implement the 10 September 1994 Convention of Government and to support the Government institutions established in line with it. Neighbouring countries were urged to stop extremists from travelling abroad and to help identify and dismantle radio stations that "incite hatred and acts of genocide".

Concerned by recent attacks on international humanitarian organizations, which had led to the suspension of essential assistance and to the temporary withdrawal of their personnel, the Council welcomed the Secretary-General's decision to send High Commissioner Ogata to Burundi.

General Assembly action

There was a "need to increase preventive action in Burundi without delay, in particular through the presence of human rights experts and through human rights training programmes", in cooperation with the Government, the General Assembly declared on 22 December. In resolution 50/159, it also invited "political partners" in Burundi to organize a national debate on the country's basic problems, with a view to concluding a national covenant and adopting a constitution.

The Government and the international community were encouraged to implement the Plan of Action adopted by the Regional Conference on Assistance to Refugees, Returnees and Displaced Persons in the Great Lakes Region (Bujumbura, 15-17 February 1995). The signatories of the 29 November 1995 Cairo Declaration, in which they pledged to take concrete actions to advance peace, justice, reconciliation, stability and development in the region, were asked to abide by those commitments. The Secretary-General should continue his efforts to convene the Regional Conference on Security, Stability and Development in the Great Lakes Region.

In a second resolution (50/58 K), also adopted on 22 December, the Assembly said the social, human rights and political crisis that had existed since October 1993 was "endangering the national economy, as evidenced by the destruction of economic and social infrastructures, declining production and trade and, as a result, shrinking public revenue".

It invited States, UN institutions, intergovernmental organizations and NGOs "to continue to provide Burundi with economic, financial, material and technical assistance for economic recovery and for the reconstruction of the various infrastructures destroyed or damaged during the crisis and to facilitate the voluntary repatriation of refugees". Burundi parties were called on not to hinder aid organizations, and to ensure the safety of humanitarian personnel in the country.

Refugees' return `vital'

The General Assembly based its actions in part on the Secretary-General's 11 October report (A/50/541 and Add.1), in which Mr. Boutros-Ghali warned that while the political instability of the past 16 months had not yet led to a "full-scale armed confrontation", due in large part to the international presence, the situation nevertheless remained "precarious".

As stability could not be achieved in the region if the problem of the 2 million refugees was not solved, full implementation by all countries of the Bujumbura Plan of Action, including the creation of adequate political and security conditions for the safe return of refugees, remained vital, he said.

The report also identified a number of actions being undertaken by the UN system for the economic recovery and reconstruction of Burundi: the UN Development Programme was helping the Government to plan reconstruction and rehabilitation projects; the UN Children's Fund was reinforcing the existing health network; the UN Centre for Human Rights had established a technical assistance project to encourage the development of an institutional infrastructure capable of creating conditions for the promotion of human rights and peace; a four-pronged assistance effort was being implemented by the World Health Organization; and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN was providing displaced persons, returnees and refugees with agricultural tool kits and seeds. Other assistance was being provided by the UNHCR, WFP and the UN Department of Humanitarian Affairs.

`Smouldering civil war'

In his initial report of 14 November 1995 (E/CN.4/1996/16), the Special Rapporteur for human rights in Burundi, Paolo Sergio Pinheiro, warned that "a smouldering civil war is spreading further and further in Burundi and the situation has in particular deteriorated since the beginning of the year, and significantly so since May 1995".

A widespread climate of insecurity and fear affected both Hutus and Tutsis, he said, and this had led to a renewed outbreak of violence committed by extremists on both sides that was responsible for the deaths of three to four soldiers each day and some 200 civilians each week.

"Complete impunity is still enjoyed in the country", and the human rights situation revealed "an increasingly marked genocidal trend of a socio-ethnic nature", Mr. Pinheiro underscored.

The international community continued to demonstrate "an acute lack of interest and a serious inability to act in an effective and concerted manner", despite being "fully aware of all the horrors" committed in Burundi, particularly after the events of October 1993. In that regard, Mr. Pinheiro welcomed the setting up of the International Commission of Inquiry. By consistently failing to act, he said, the international community was "keeping alive and to a great extent contributing to the development of the radicalization" in the country.

New Special Representative

On 30 December, Marc Faguy of Canada assumed the functions of the Secretary-General's Special Representative in Burundi, replacing Ahmedou Ould Abdallah of Mauritania, who concluded a two-year term of office at the end of October.