Senate handicap.

EIGHTY-EIGHT has been a bad year for Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole. His bid for the presidential nomination was hit by a blizzard of negative advertising in New Hampshire, and now his hopes for Republican control of the Senate look bleak.

Thirty-three Senate seats are up for grabs this year, 18 held by Democratic incumbents, 15 by Republicans. One seat is being vacated-by Republican Paul Trible of Virginia; and Chuck Robb, the Democratic former governor, looks prepared to win by a landslide, yielding the Democrats one sure pick-up from the GOP.

But 13 other races are hot. Here's the handicap, alphabetically:

California: Incumbent GOP Senator Pete Wilson faces Democratic Lieutenant Governor Leo T. McCarthy. Wilson has raised and spent $8 million so far in building a good, but not commanding lead over McCarthy, who has funds in reserve to wage a competitive campaign. Wilson should win, but the wild card is the presidential contest. If either George Bush or Michael Dukakis lights a fire under California voters, the Senate race could be decided by coattails. Pick Bush to carry California narrowly, and Wilson to be re-elected.

Connecticut: Veteran incumbent Lowell Weicker should hold this seat for the GOP in a contest with state Attorney General Joseph Lieberman. Weicker has widespread support, and with Dukakis unlikely to carry Connecticut by a large margin, Lieberman can't count on coattails.

Florida: Democratic Congressman Buddy MacKay faces Republican Congressman Connie Mack in a contest over the seat vacated by Democratic Senator Lawton Chiles. While many predict a close race, Mack's philosophical ties to the Reagan-Bush Administration should give him easy access to the Bush voters, who will give this state to the GOP come November.

Minnesota: Republican incumbent Dave Durenberger is vulnerable. His opponent, state Attorney General Hubert "Skip" Humphrey III, is hitting Durenberger on the drug issue, education, and other social concerns in a socially conscious state. It's a close call, but leaning Humphrey.

Mississippi: Conservative GOP Congressman Trent Lott is finally headed toward the Senate. Retiring veteran John Stennis vacates a Democratic seat, and Democratic Representative Wayne Dowdy needs 90 to 95 per cent of the black vote to beat Lott, whose black voter appeal is substantial. That, and the likelihood of Bush's campaign carrying Mississippi, make this race right for Lott.

Montana: President Reagan has stepped into this battle. Democratic incumbent John Melcher is vulnerable, but has a 7 to I spending advantage. The missing ingredient in a Republican win has been funding for challenger Conrad Burns. Reagan hopes to help raise money, but it is probably too late.

Nevada: GOP Senator Chic Hecht has trailed Governor Richard Bryan in the polls since January. Bush will carry Nevada by a large margin, but not enough to salvage Hecht.

New Jersey: Pete Dawkins was the GOP's best hope for an upset against incumbent Democrat Frank Lautenberg, but Lautenberg's negative advertising wave appears to be working.

North Dakota: Here is another case where Reagan has stepped in to help with the fundraising. Democratic Senator Quentin Burdick turned eighty this summer, and GOP challenger Earl Strinden will harp on age and health as issues. Still, Burdick is popular. Even the Gipper probably will not be able to turn the trick.

Ohio: Incumbent Democratic Senator Howard Metzenbaum has been given a battle by Cleveland Mayor George Voinovich. Still, Metzenbaum maintains a large lead. With Ohio a toss-up state presidentially, Voinovich cannot count on Bush coattails.

Washington: Thanks to the fringe liberalism of the Democratic candidate, Representative Mike Lowry, this tight race looks marginally hopeful for former GOP Senator Slade Gorton.

Wisconsin: Republican challenger Susan Engeleiter, State Senate minority leader, is giving Democratic candidate Herbert Kohl a run for his money. Kohl, owner of the Milwaukee Bucks basketball team, was ahead, but a tough campaign from Senator Engeleiter has resulted in an infusion of PAC contributions.

Wyoming: The Democratic challenger, State Senator John Vinich, is shooting for an upset against GOP incumbent Malcolm Wallop, and missing. With Wyoming safe Bush territory, Wallop can count on coattails.

THE LIKELY OUTLOOK for the 101st Congress? Fifty-six Democratic seats, 44 Republican, a net loss of one seat for the GOP. The wild card, of course, is coattails. Reagan stunned pundits in 1980 by sweeping in a horde of GOP candidates who upset incumbents in races written off by the peddlers of conventional wisdom. Some hopeful GOP analysts see the same dynamic at work in 1988, with Bush's attacks on Dukakis's liberalism slopping over onto Democratic candidates in general. Indeed, the ideological quotient in this race is particularly promising (in terms of coattails) in the South and West. That is where the GOP might gain more seats, although a 1980-style turnover of control of the Senate is unlikely.

Thus Bob Dole broods. He is doing all in his power to raise funds for candidates. What irony: the bright spot in Dole's hopes for more GOP gains in the Senate is the success of his

.