Seeing What's Next: Using the Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change.

Seeing What's Next: Using the Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change. By Clayton M. Christensen, Scott D. Anthony and Erik A. Roth. Harvard Business School Press, 312 pages. $29.95.

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Given the remarkable reach and success of his earlier books, The Innovator's Dilemma and The Innovator's Solution, it isn't surprising that Clayton Christensen's newest book is also about innovation. Here, he and two co-authors tackle the notion that even without proprietary knowledge, analysts can create models that can successfully surmise how certain industries will evolve and which strategies will succeed.

Christensen, a professor of business administration at Harvard Business School, along with Anthony, a partner at consulting firm Innosight LLC, and Roth, a consultant with McKinsey & Co., propound an argument that "a structured, rigorous process of looking at an industry or industry segment through the lenses of the theories of innovation provides powerful insights not readily observable to the naked eye." They detail these grounding tenets in the first part of the book, then focus on how to use the theories to assess the future of five distinct industries: aviation, education, semiconductors, healthcare and telecommunications.

There's nothing shallow or superficial here; readers get to grapple with concepts like the RPV (resources, processes and values) and VCE (value chain evolution) theories. But theory, they write, is the best lens for seeing the future. "With more information available, it is harder to discern what information really matters. Theory helps to block out the noise and to amplify the signal." After analyzing the messy, largely unprofitable airline industry, for instance, they conclude that an air taxi company taking people point-to-point could be one of the top ideas of the coming decade.

Seeing What's Next has extensive notes at the end of many chapters; an appendix and glossary of terms used in the book; and selective use of charts and diagrams. Lucidly written, despite its gravitas and complexity, it's almost certain to join Christensen's earlier books as widely admired, much talked-about and influential.